041
FXUS64 KMEG 281744
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1144 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1142 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

- Dry and mild conditions will persist today, with high
  temperatures falling back briefly into the upper 40s to 50s on
  Sunday.

- A warm and unsettled weather pattern will emerge next week with
  the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday
  afternoon into Tuesday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Skies are mostly sunny across the Mid-South this morning with
temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Dry weather and above
normal temperatures are on tap this afternoon with highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Current forecast looks good with no
update needed.

ARS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 403 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite depicts an upper-level trough over
the eastern United States with the Mid-South in northwest flow
aloft. A 1021 mb surface high centered over central Texas is
resulting in rain-free conditions across the Mid-South this
morning. Meanwhile, a cold front is located over portions of the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Temperatures as of 3 AM CST
range from the lower 40s around Memphis and points southwest, and
30s elsewhere.

High pressure will bring a continuation of rain-free weather into
this weekend. 925 mb temperatures will rise to 12-13C this
afternoon translating to highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Temperatures were adjusted upward from the cooler NBM guidance.
Ample mixing of drier air aloft will result in minimum relative
humidity values dropping to between 25 to 30 percent across most
of the Mid-South. These lower humidity values combined with
increasing southwest winds may result in an elevated fire danger
across the area this afternoon.

The aforementioned upstream cold front will drop into the Lower
Mississippi Valley tonight with a secondary front passing through
the region on Saturday. This will result in temperatures falling
to or below normal for the weekend with highs Sunday in the upper
40s to upper 50s.

Latest long-range operational and ensemble models indicate a
return to active weather across the Mid-South early next week. A
compact upper-level low will move from the Southwest United States
and transition to an open wave across the region late Sunday
night into Monday. Rain chances were increased slightly during
this period as the shortwave trough has trended north over the
past 24 hours. Rainfall amounts will remain relatively light with
this shortwave trough.

A mid-level trough is expected to move from the Central/Southern
Plains into the Mississippi Valley next Tuesday into Wednesday.
A surface low will move across central and east-central Missouri.
The 00Z operational GFS remains slightly on the quicker side
compared to the ECMWF solution. Latest trends still indicate the
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms across the Mid-South
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night with favorable upper-level
divergence and deep layer shear. An early look at the potential
storm mode would lean towards quasi-linear type convection. The
00Z LREF still indicates a large spread in surface-based CAPE
values generally below 500 J/kg with instability decreasing into
Tuesday night. This potential severe weather event will continue
to be monitored in subsequent model runs.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

VFR. Gusty SW winds will prevail this afternoon. A dry cold front
will move through tonight. Expect some LLWS across the region
this evening ahead of the front. Winds will shift to the north and
become occasionally gusty on Saturday.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...SJM