Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
598 FXUS64 KMEG 150425 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1125 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES - A warming trend will continue through Friday as high pressure dominates. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s the rest of the week. - A cold front will swing through on Saturday, bringing a 70 to 80 percent chance of rain. This will also bring a low potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. - A significant cooldown is expected after the front on Sunday. Temperatures will be closer to normal in the low to mid 70s to begin the work week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1124 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Midlevel ridging is in full swing over the Mid-South right now. 500 mb height climatologies are in the 98th percentile for much of the Lower MS River Valley, which has translated into above normal temperatures and benign weather this week. This warm and dry trend will continue at least through Friday as dominant ridging remains firmly in place. Moving into the weekend, the upper level pattern undergoes a fairly quick deamplification, allowing a relatively deep trough to cut through the ridging. A cold front associated with this trough will eventually swing down from the northern Plains, as early as Saturday afternoon. Digging into the LREF ensemble space, the GEFS still favors a faster and weaker trough, while the ENS favors a slower and more amplified trough. If the former solution plays out, the severe weather threat will likely be earlier in the day Saturday and displaced off to our west over the ArkLaTex region. If it`s more like the latter solution, the Mid-South will be more in the hot seat for severe weather late Saturday afternoon into the evening. This is supported by the joint probs of CAPE > 500 J/kg and shear > 30 kts; using this as a proxy for severe weather shows mid range probs (40- 50%) for the Lower MS River Valley in each ensemble scenario, there are just minor differences in axes of instability and timing of greatest potential. Regardless, strong to severe thunderstorms will be on the table at some point on Saturday. Still a little early to narrow down hazards, but this does look like it`ll be a linear convective mode. After the front passes, the pattern remains fairly progressive into next week. Sunday`s temperatures will drop very quickly back to normal (low 70s) aided by strong CAA and cool high pressure. Weak ridging closely follows and sends temperatures back on a gradual warming trend to begin the work week. A low amplitude upper level pattern will allow minor disturbances to embed in the mean flow and travel across the CONUS, which keeps PoPs at or above 15% from Tuesday onward. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 VFR conditions will continue over the next 24-30 hours. Northeast winds around 5kts overnight and again tomorrow night, 6-10kts during daylight hours tomorrow. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1124 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 MinRH values will remain in the 30% to 40% range through Friday, with light winds. Showers and thunderstorms will return to the area on Saturday, bringing 1 to 2 inches of rainfall. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD AVIATION...JDS