087
FXUS64 KMEG 040718
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
218 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 123 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

- Warm and dry conditions expected for Independence Day today.
  High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

- High temperatures and humidity will increase over the weekend. Rain
  chances will remain low (less than 20%) through the weekend
  before increasing again next week (40%-60%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Rinse and repeat. A 591dm ridge will shift out of the Plains,
across the Mississippi River Valley today, resulting in a warming
trend across the Midsouth. Expect high temperatures in the low to
middle 90s this afternoon. Surface high pressure will shift over
the Ohio Valley this evening resulting in weak return flow across
the region. As temperatures warm, humidity will also increase. We
should remain below heat advisory criteria (103 heat index) today,
but may approach criteria over the weekend south of Memphis in
the delta.

Early next week, upper-level ridging will begin to give way to
quasi-zonal flow. A a couple of weak shortwaves will traverse
through the mean flow through by midweek. As such, precipitation
chances will increase by Monday, with higher chances (50 to 60%)
by the middle of next week. High temperatures will likely return
to near normal through this period, with highs generally in the
low 90s. WPC QPF values remain pretty low next week (less than
0.5 inches), but a broad trough over the eastern CONUS favors a
wetter, and slightly cooler pattern.

30/Sirmon

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

No changes planned for 06Z TAFs. VFR and light winds will prevail
through the next 30 hours, aided by high pressure aloft and at the
surface.

PWB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 123 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025
Warming conditions are expected over the next several days. MinRH
values will remain above 40% through the weekend and in the 50`s
early next week. Winds will remain light through the weekend. No
wetting rain is expected today or Saturday. Widespread fog looks
unlikely.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...PWB