627
FXUS64 KMEG 201718
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1218 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Below normal temperatures and daily rain chances for north Mississippi
and parts of West Tennessee will be the story through the weekend due
to a stalled frontal boundary. The boundary will eventually lift north
by early next week with rain chances spreading across the entire area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

A stalled surface frontal boundary is situated over NE MS this
morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are developing across
parts of West TN and north MS likely in response to a warm front
at 925 mb nudging northward. Skies are mostly cloudy with temps in
the lower 70s and light winds.

The surface frontal boundary will remain generally stalled across
NE MS and the southeast part of West TN through the weekend.
Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms near the front across
eastern sections of the Mid-South through the weekend. Greatest
coverage should align with daytime heating and peak during the
afternoon and early evening hours. Isolated pockets of heavy
rainfall are possible today due to slow movement of storms with
the greater chances across NE MS where PWs will be a little
higher. Patchy fog is possible each night especially east of the
MS River. General upper troughing across the region will help keep
temps below normal with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s
though a few 90 degree readings may sneak into north MS on Sunday.

Some upper level energy will drop into the Middle MS Valley late
this weekend which will help lift the stalled frontal boundary
north of the area by Monday. This will spread rain chances across
the entire Mid-South by Monday afternoon. Deeper moisture will
spread across the region resulting in an uptick in convective
coverage next week. Isolated pockets of heavy rainfall are
possible with generally light winds aloft and slow moving storms.
Organized severe weather remains unlikely with weak shear
prevailing. Lower upper level heights over the region will result
in continued mild weather with highs in the 80s though it will be
humid with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s.

As the upper trough pushes east or weakens toward the end of the
week temps will probably inch back toward normal next weekend. The
probability of hitting 90 degrees climbs across much of the
region by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

The main concern this TAF period is for eastern portions of the
airspace due to the potential for showers, thunderstorms, and fog
development. A warm front is lifting north and initiating a few
showers and thunderstorms across Tennessee.

TUP should lift to VFR to follow suit of the other terminals in
the next few hours. VFR conditions will prevail for most of the
period with MVFR conditions possible to return with any BR
conditions that develop overnight.

DNM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...DNM