875
FXUS64 KMEG 072336
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
536 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Light rain and cool temperatures will continue through Saturday
morning before a warm front lifts north across the region. Mild
and mainly dry conditions will return on Saturday with highs in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. Cold and wet conditions will return on
Sunday as a front pushes south through the entire region. Below
normal temperatures will persist Monday through late next week.
Several rounds of rainfall are possible as the pattern remains
active. Wintry weather looks to remain just north of the region,
but will need to be watched closely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

A cool and dreary day across the Mid-South at this hour.
Temperatures remain steady in the upper 40s across the north to
upper 50s across the south with overcast skies. A few light
showers are noted on radar in a weak WAA regime.

A warm front will begin to lift north tonight in response to a
shortwave to our west. As it does, temperatures will warm into the
60s areawide and a few scattered showers will occur. A mostly dry
and mild day is expected on Saturday as temperatures climb into
the upper 60s and lower 70s areawide. The front will stall near
the Tennessee and Kentucky state line by Saturday morning. It
will then advance south late tomorrow afternoon and generate a few
showers. Cold air will advance into the Mid-South by Sunday
morning and remain over the region through much of next week.
Below normal temperatures are expected through this period as the
pattern remains dominated by fast-moving zonal flow aloft.

Upper level flow will shift west-southwesterly late Monday and
allow a few subtropical disturbances to pivot through the Lower
Mississippi Valley through Wednesday. Showers will begin late
Monday night and persist through Wednesday as a couple of
shortwaves move through and interact with a weak traversing cold
front. There remains some uncertainty as to where the subfreezing
temperature line will reside. Most model guidance suggests that
subfreezing temperatures will stay just north of the region, with
cold rain across much of the Mid-South. Due to the low amplitude
upper level flow, models may not be resolving the temperature
field well at this time. WPC has introduced low probabilities
(10-30%) of liquid equivalent of snow and sleet, despite uncertain
temperatures profiles. Ensemble mean guidance is less excited in
the prospect of snow, as probabilities for a dusting remain 40%
north of I-40 and less than 25% for half an inch. Nonetheless, it
should be mentioned that next week`s temperatures will be critical
to the chance of any wintry precipitation. The threat will remain
mostly confined to areas north of the I-40 corridor.

The focus beyond Wednesday shifts to heavy rainfall across the
region. QPF totals for the Monday through Wednesday system could
tally between 1 and 3 inches with locally higher amounts. A
successive quick-moving system will impact the region Wednesday
night into Thursday and could deliver another 1 to 2 inches of
rainfall. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall has been introduced
for Wednesday into Thursday as a result. The long range pattern
appears to remain fast and amplified, which suggests active
weather.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

The main impacts this period will be CIGs and winds as a warm
front advances north across the airspace. Overnight, expect
periods of drizzle and showers across the airspace. Areas of
drizzle will likely be confined north of I-40, hence mention in
JBR and MKL TAFs. Elsewhere, VCSH is favored. IFR CIGs will
develop over JBR tonight, lasting into midday.

In addition, guidance is beginning to show a stout LLJ forming
around sunrise and persisting through midday. All terminals except
for TUP will experience LLWS up to 45 kts. As these winds mix
down, gusts up to 25 kts will be possible.

ANS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...ANS