702
FXUS64 KMEG 050221
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
821 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 820 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Isolated showers continue to impact north Mississippi this
evening. Expect this activity to diminish overnight as a strong
cold front sweeps across the Mid-South. High temperatures on
Thursday will range from the low 40s to mid 40s as dry, Canadian
air ushers into the region. Cold air will stick around through
Friday before a warming trend begins this weekend.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 110 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

An Arctic blast of cold air is expected late this week before the
pattern trends warmer and wetter. Another cold front will move
through the region on Sunday, bringing widespread showers and
about an inch of rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 110 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

This forecast period is mainly characterized by two cold fronts,
one Arctic this week and another Pacific early next week. The
latest surface analysis depicts the first front draped from Lake
Michigan down through the Ozarks. A few showers may materialize
along the front overnight across north Mississippi, but the main
impact in the short term is the cold blast expected with the
Arctic airmass later this week. The full effects of the 1032mb
surface high will be firmly in place by tomorrow evening, giving
way to a prime radiational cooling setup on Friday morning. Clear
skies, light winds, and residual cold air advection will plummet
temperatures into the low 20s and maybe even teens for some areas.
On Friday morning, the NBM depicts >50% probability of
temperatures below 20 degrees for much of west Tennessee and even
parts of northeast Mississippi. On the bright side, there looks to
be very little moisture available for any winter precip or icing
concerns to materialize.

The timing of the second front has been consistently coming in later
and later with each subsequent model run, and the latest set of data
is no exception. The Arctic surface high will take its time sliding
over to the Carolinas on Saturday afternoon, but as it does,
southerly flow on the back side will quickly send temperatures back
to a more mild and seasonable range. In addition, a weak shortwave
disturbance will eject from the ArkLaTex region and ride the
transient ridge over to the Mid-South. This will promote the initial
pre-frontal showers as early as Sunday morning, but increasing in
coverage and intensity through the evening hours. Looking at
ensemble mean forecast soundings, I am barely seeing enough
instability to support even thunderstorms through Monday morning.
The column looks nearly entirely saturated and the forcing is also
quite weak.

There looks to be a bit of a lull in the next front`s forward
progress early next week. As a result, actual FROPA will most likely
not occur until early Tuesday morning. Since this second front is
more Pacific in origin, temperatures are not expected to take quite
as dramatic of a plunge next week. This is good news with respect to
winter weather; any residual precip should clear the area long
before we fall back below freezing midweek. The extended forecast
looks fairly seasonable with near normal temperatures.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Frontal boundary is currently moving through the area, bringing
low cigs and VCSH across north MS to just north of the TN/MS line.
Do expect for these conditions to continue until around 06Z for
MEM, with quick improvements to VFR thereafter. Low cigs will
likely remain for TUP until 14Z. Current W/SW winds will quickly
shift behind the frontal boundary, becoming N areawide after 10Z.
Gusty winds expected through the daytime tomorrow, with gusts
around 20 kts.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...CMA