662
FXUS64 KMEG 020454
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1054 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1047 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through early
  Tuesday morning for areas north of I-40.

- In the Winter Weather Advisory area, total snow and sleet
  accumulations will likely remain less than one inch with ice
  accumulations less than one tenth of an inch. This could cause
  minor impacts to roadways and bridges.

- Dry conditions will resume by the middle of the day on Tuesday,
  with precipitation chances returning by Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 1028 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

A chilly overnight continues with mixed precipitation types
depending where you are across the Mid-South. Locations across
northeast AR, the MO Bootheel, and far northwest TN have already
seen rain transition to a wintry mix over the past few hours,
with freezing rain being the most common precipitation type. The
00Z sounding from Little Rock does show a pretty deep warm nose
from earlier this evening. Latest mesoanalysis does suggest that
this continues to slowly erode, which will help some locations
transition from freezing rain to sleet. Our 850 mb freezing line
continues to push into the far northwest corner of our area, so
expect those locations to continue to transition to snow with any
lingering moisture. Right now the entire column of below freezing
temperatures does appear to extend to the Mississippi River, so a
transition to snow across northeast AR, the MO Bootheel, and far
northwest TN appears imminent. As far as other locations across
the Mid-South go, locations south of I-40 will continue to see a
very cold rain, with only a brief window of a wintry mix likely
around midnight. Models continue to depict things drying out
areawide pretty rapidly after midnight, with the bulk of any
precipitation exiting before sunrise. In terms of impacts through
the overnight hours into tomorrow morning, these will likely be
mostly confined to bridges and overpasses that would be the most
susceptible to icing. If some additional issues were to arise, it
would likely be in the far northwest corner of the area and along
the TN/KY stateline. Total ice accumulation will likely remain
below a tenth of an inch, with total snow amounts remaining below
half an inch.

Any lingering precipitation will likely move out by sunrise on
Tuesday, with chilly temperatures lingering throughout the day.
High temperatures will likely remain in the 30s across much of
the area and only reach the 40s across northeast MS and our
southern tier of counties. If there is any lingering moisture on
surfaces on Tuesday, winds are expected to remain elevated enough
to help dry things out. This would likely eliminate any re-
freezing Tuesday night. A subtle high pressure will begin to
develop on Wednesday, with WAA returning to the area. This will
allow temperatures to warm back into the 40s north and low 50s
south. This brief warmer period will be short lived as things turn
cooler again into Thursday with rain chances slowly increasing to
end the week as a weak shortwave passes through the region.
Guidance does want to clip our area with some precipitation on
Friday, but these chances have continued to decrease from previous
model runs, keeping parts of the Mid-South dry. The area should
see another brief dry spell behind this shortwave, with eyes
turning to a developing upper- level trough off the Rockies.
Models have slowed down the progression of this overall pattern,
so have pretty low confidence in the ultimate pattern as we
progress through the weekend. Models do agree that below-normal
temperatures are likely here to stay for the foreseeable future,
with high temperatures in the 40s to 50s to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1047 PM CST Mon Dec 1

Light rain and wintry precipitation will continue pushing east
behind a low pressure system, exiting all terminals by around
10Z. IFR with intermittent LIFR conditions will continue through
around 15Z when cigs slowly improve to MVFR conditions. MVFR
conditions will linger through late afternoon before the airspace
finally begins to lift to VFR. North/northwest will shift more
east by the end of the TAF period, prevailing under 10 kts.

AEH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1028 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

No major fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with
minRH values remaining above 40%.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>052-054-055.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...AEH