633
FXUS64 KMEG 191616
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1016 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1006 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

Clouds are decreasing across portions of southwest Tennessee and
north Mississippi with sunny skies over the remainder of the
region. Temperatures this morning are in the mid to upper 20s.
Some light snow flurries are occurring over portions of west
Tennessee and north Mississippi. As the clouds move out of the
region, the snow flurries will end. Even drier air is moving into
northwest sections of the Mid-South. This will help allow
temperatures to drop into the teens overnight.

ARS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 302 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

Cold, windy weather today with the potential to see a few
snowflakes. Bitter cold is expected tomorrow morning across the
Midsouth with feels-like temperatures dropping below 10 degrees
areawide. Some locations in northwest Tennessee could have feels-
like temperatures fall below 0. Lows will be below 20 through
Wednesday with highs in the 20s and 30s, warming further into next
weekend. Otherwise, the forecast should remain dry with some
snowflakes possible across north Mississippi on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 302 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

A large-scale trough currently resides over the central CONUS per
water vapor imagery. As it progresses east tonight, some
associated upper lift is expected to produce isolated snow
showers throughout the region. Surface analyses and radar
observations from KPAH/KNQA/KSGF show some precipitation making it
as low as 5-6 kft with local pockets of snow finding their way to
the surface across east Arkansas and west Tennessee. Dry low-
level air should sublimate enough precipitation to keep snow
accumulations below a .1" through today before ending this evening.
On top of snowflakes, winds could gust above 20 mph before calming
to 10 mph tonight.

As the upper trough travels east today, confluence on the
backside of the trough will persist over the Midsouth for several
days. Surface high pressure will then lock in the cold air behind
yesterday`s cold front bringing seasonably anomalous highs and
lows in the 20s and 0s/10s respectively. Recent guidance has
feels-like temperatures dropping into below 10, and in some areas
5, into tomorrow morning. Therefore, have expanded the cold
weather advisory south and east to cover areas where confidence
has increased in criteria being met.

Another upper trough will push some of the upper confluence out of
the region Tuesday with a surface low grazing the Gulf Coast. Some
moisture could make its way north over the resident cold air mass,
which could produce some precipitation. However, forecast
soundings and QPF are light, likely due to a lack of moisture in
such an arctic airmass. Additionally, upper moisture will be low
to a point where there isn`t enough precipitation to saturate
this layer. Have kept precipitation light across north
Mississippi in response with no impactful accumulation.
Temperatures will moderate slightly Tuesday and Wednesday, but
lows will still be below 20 with highs around freezing areawide.

By Wednesday afternoon, the core of arctic air that will sit over
the Midsouth will begin to warm and move east. High temperatures
increase in response with Wednesday`s highs in the 30s and
Thursday`s in the 40s. Although late in the forecast, next
weekends highs appear to have a high chance of warming further as
the surface high moves far enough east to bring Gulf air poleward.
Ensembles are in good agreement in this pattern shift with a
western trough and eastern ridging supporting a warming trend.
However, the evolution of the trough as it exits the Rockies is
typically uncertain, but precipitation chances could increase into
the beginning of next week as this trough moves into the Midsouth.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 507 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

MVFR CIGs will persist through tomorrow morning. Gusty north winds
will continue through the day today as an arctic airmass moves in.
-SNSH will remain possible through mid-morning at JBR, MEM and MKL.
CIGs will scatter out by midday and remain VFR for the remainder
of the TAF cycle. North winds will weaken to around 5kt overnight
into tomorrow.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday
     for ARZ035-036-048-049-058.

MO...None.
MS...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday
     for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday
     for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...JDS