Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
100 FXUS64 KMEG 170419 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1119 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1117 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s are anticipated through Saturday. - A cold front will pass through the Mid-South Saturday night, bringing the threat of strong to severe storms. Damaging winds and localized flooding are the primary concerns. - Temperatures will cool significantly Sunday and into the beginning of next week with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1117 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Synoptic patterns will begin to change today as large scale troughing aids in the breakdown of an upper level ridge centered over the Mid-South. A faint shortwave will traverse the region today as the aforementioned ridge weakens, allowing surface winds to veer southerly. Warm and moist air will funnel into the Mid- South, resulting in noticeably warmer temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 80s. On Saturday, a large upper level trough and attendant cold front will phase with a closed low over NM/TX. This interaction will increase momentum to the east of the parent trough, allowing large scale lift to form from the ArkLaTex to Mississippi River. Overall, the severe weather parameter space will be defined by decent kinematics and marginal thermodynamics. The best parameters will overlap over the ArkLaTex, where plentiful CAPE is forecast. For now, we anticipate a line of storms to approach the Mid- South in the late afternoon / early evening hours. At this time, CAPE values will be on the decline and lapse rates will fall below 6.5 C/km. Storms should weaken as they push east of the Mississippi River. The main concern with Saturday`s storms will be damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. Luckily, the fast moving nature of these storms will hamper any widespread flooding issues. Behind Saturday`s frontal passage, decent CAA will occur with highs on Sunday in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Temperatures will warm to the mid 70s on Monday before yet another cold front impacts the Mid-South on Tuesday. Appreciable rainfall with this boundary is looking less likely due to a lack of adequate moisture return ahead of FROPA. Regardless, isolated showers remain possible through Wednesday morning. Behind this front, temperatures return to the upper 60s and lower 70s to end the work week. ANS && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1117 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions will prevail with no significant changes. East winds tonight will trend more southerly tomorrow. Wind speeds will remain below 7kts through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1117 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Low fire danger is anticipated through the weekend as MinRH values remain above 30 percent with light 20ft winds. Wetting rain chances return Saturday ahead of a cold front. Behind this boundary, MinRH will drop to around 30 percent. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...JDS