116
FXUS64 KMEG 101756
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1256 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1224 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

- Summer heat will persist through the upcoming week.
  Temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 90s with heat
  indices around 100 degrees.

- Rain chances will increase each day this upcoming week, peaking
  in the 40 to 50 percent range by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Another rinse and repeat forecast for today. Temperatures are
generally in the upper 80s across the region with heat indices
just a couple ticks higher. The latest GOES East Satellite
Imagery shows a fairly dense cumulus deck across the entire Mid-
South with just a few patches of cumuli congesti over north
Mississippi.

Aloft, a large trough remains nearly stationary and encompasses
much of the of the InterMountain West and Great Plains. Numerous
perturbations within the main trough continue to ripple through
the Middle Mississippi Valley where the majority of active weather
will remain today through Tuesday.

Mainly dry and benign weather will persist across the Mid-South
through Monday, as the upper level ridge remains intact across
the Lower Mississippi Valley.

The aforementioned trough will slowly pivot east through midweek.
Very subtle height falls will occur across the Mid-South, but
enough to create some weaknesses in the upper level ridge. This
will result in isolated to scattered diurnal convection Tuesday
through late week. Return flow doesn`t look particularly strong at
any point during the week, however, low and mid level moisture
will slowly increase. As a result, heat indices will steadily
climb to or slightly above the 100F mark each day through late
week. LREF probabilities for 104+F heat indices remain confined to
the Mississippi River Delta, where up to 40 percent chances will
occur. The rest of the Mid-South will remain hot and humid but
likely (>70%) below heat advisory criteria.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

No aviation concerns remain this issuance. As high pressure
continues to dominate the weather pattern, VFR conditions will
prevail through the TAF period. Light east/southeast winds will be
sub 10 kts over the next 30 hours or so.

AEH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Afternoon relative humidity will remain at or above 50% with
light winds through the end of next week. Rain chances increase to
30-40% next week, though Tuesday looks like our best shot at
wetting rains. Expect seasonably hot and humid conditions with
isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms most of the week.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...AEH