453
ACUS11 KWNS 081957
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081957
MIZ000-WIZ000-082130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1608
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Areas affected...portions of northeast Wisconsin and the UP of
Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 081957Z - 082130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms may pose a risk for
damaging gusts and some hail this afternoon. A WW is not
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Across portions of the upper Great Lakes, isolated
thunderstorms have developed along a weak front/wind shift this
afternoon.  Aided by weak ascent from a broad shortwave trough,
additional storm development/maturation is possible over the next
few hours. Warming surface temperatures and 60s F dewpoints were
supporting ~1000 J/kg of MCLAPE. Sufficient for strong updrafts,
35-40 kt of flow aloft will also favor some organization with
supercell structures or clusters. Isolated damaging gusts and some
hail are possible with the strongest storms.

The environment should continue to support occasional strong to
severe storms over the next few hours as the wind shift continues
toward the western shores of Lake Michigan. HRRR guidance suggests
additional storms are possible farther south into northern WI with
time. However, the limited overlap of buoyancy and shear, plus the
limited duration before crossing offshore suggests the overall
severe potential is low. A WW is unlikely, though convective trends
will be monitored.

..Lyons/Thompson.. 07/08/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...

LAT...LON   44778958 45858968 46388928 46678810 46608674 46438598
            46088592 45208652 44568705 44168736 44058787 44008865
            44778958

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN