813
ACUS11 KWNS 241704
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241704
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-241900-

Mesoscale Discussion 2008
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Areas affected...portions of western/central New York and central
Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 241704Z - 241900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce
locally damaging gusts and hail through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms and deepening cumulus are noted
along a cold front extending across western NY/PA early this
afternoon. Where stronger heating has cleared amid scattered/broken
cloudiness, temperatures have warmed into the mid 70s to low 80s F
amid 60s F dewpoints. While midlevel lapse rates remain weak, this
is sufficient for weak destabilization across the area in a narrow
corridor ahead of the front. Increasing southwesterly flow with
height is supporting modest vertical shear, with effective shear
magnitudes generally around 30 kt per regional VWP data. This should
be sufficient for organized cells. As heating allows for steepened
low-level lapse rates, isolated strong to locally damaging gusts
will be possible through the afternoon. While midlevel lapse rates
are generally weak, cool 500 mb temperatures (-10 to -12 C) and
favorable vertical shear profiles (exhibiting elongated/straight
hodographs) may also support isolated marginally severe hail to near
1 inch diameter. Convection may be more sparse/later developing with
southward extent into central PA as the cold front develops east
more slowly compared to further north, limiting forcing for ascent.

Given the overall marginal thermodynamic environment, a watch is not
currently expected and the severe risk should remain relatively
limited/sporadic.

..Leitman/Gleason.. 08/24/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

LAT...LON   43257719 44647508 44557426 43887440 43047511 39697812
            39867881 40037907 41857840 42557813 42867780 43257719

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN