871
ACUS11 KWNS 061517
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061517
FLZ000-GAZ000-061645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0021
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0917 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025

Areas affected...southern GA into far northern FL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 061517Z - 061645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated low-topped convection may pose a risk for a
strong wind gust or brief tornado through early afternoon. Overall
risk is expected to remain low, and a watch is not currently
expected.

DISCUSSION...Low-topped convection is currently ongoing across
southern GA into north FL. Recently, occasional cyclonic shear has
been noted with cells over southern GA. The VWP from KVAX shows
enlarged and favorably curved low-level hodographs, supported by 1-2
km flow around 50-60 kt. Instability remains a limiting factor, with
regional 12z RAOBs showing poor lapse rates. Additionally,
boundary-layer moisture is rather unimpressive, with dewpoints
generally in the upper 50s to low 60s F. Nevertheless, even weak
low-level instability could be sufficient in this high shear
environment to allow for a sporadic strong gust or perhaps a brief
tornado. Overall severe potential is expected to remain
limited/conditional through the afternoon.

..Leitman/Smith.. 01/06/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   31458385 31378228 30928192 30478202 30338247 30278308
            30388370 30638396 30928406 31138407 31458385