233
ACUS11 KWNS 162015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162014
MDZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-162215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0820
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Areas affected...western/central PA to northern VA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 263...

Valid 162014Z - 162215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 263
continues.

SUMMARY...A mix of damaging winds and severe hail remains possible
through early evening from western to central Pennsylvania southward
into northern Virginia. A corridor of greater damaging wind
potential is apparent in central Maryland, the District of Columbia,
and far northern Virginia.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage has steadily increased ahead of a
minor MCV, and separately along a wavy outflow boundary. Measured
strong to severe wind gusts have occurred along the outflow
associated with the MCV. Very strong mid-level winds persist in the
wake of this MCV, as sampled by recent RLX VWP data. With surface
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s ahead of this outflow, yielding
peak MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg, damaging wind swaths are most
probable into central MD to far northern VA. Farther north,
convection has largely struggled, outside of a slow-moving supercell
along the separate outflow boundary in south-central PA. Mixed
severe hail and damaging wind will remain possible here, amid weak
low-level shear/SRH.

..Grams.. 05/16/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

LAT...LON   41077947 41107851 41097790 40777722 39657638 38947630
            38457635 38177670 38587811 39107820 39617826 40137886
            40727947 41077947

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN