Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 091829
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091829
FLZ000-GAZ000-092000-
Mesoscale Discussion 0754
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025
Areas affected...central and eastern parts of the Florida Peninsula
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 091829Z - 092000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Strong, damaging wind gusts and some large hail may
accompany the stronger storms initiating off of sea-breeze
boundaries this afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is
possible.
DISCUSSION...A cumulus field is deepening along the shoreline of the
eastern FL Peninsula with a developing, westward progressing
sea-breeze boundary, which should serve as the impetus for
convective initiation over the next couple of hours. These storms
are poised to develop atop a heated, well-mixed boundary layer,
characterized by 8-9 C/km low-level lapse rates amid 70 F surface
dewpoints, boosting MLCAPE to over 2000 J/kg in spots. In addition
to adequate buoyancy supporting strong thunderstorm updrafts,
glancing stronger mid/upper-level flow to the north will support 30+
kts of effective bulk shear and some potential for storm
organization. Multicells are the expected mode of convection,
accompanied by strong wind gusts and perhaps some hail. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch may be needed if widespread, intense convection
becomes apparent.
..Squitieri/Mosier.. 05/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 27098153 28348194 29218206 29878203 30608200 30808193
30878170 30708145 29968132 29258100 28648064 27998044
27318011 26898005 26658027 26678108 27098153
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN