268
ACUS11 KWNS 040056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040056
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-040200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0385
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Areas affected...Portions of northeast Arkansas into far southeast
Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108...

Valid 040056Z - 040200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat appears to have decreased across much of
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108, though isolated severe hail remains
possible across portions of northeast Arkansas into far southeast
Missouri.

DISCUSSION...The latest regional VWP data suggests that the core of
the southwesterly low-level jet is advancing eastward away from the
watch area, and this seems to be favoring a decrease in overall
thunderstorm intensity and coverage. Nevertheless, the LZK 00Z
sounding sampled 56 kt of effective shear and modestly steep
midlevel lapse rates above the cool/stable boundary layer (yielding
around 1700 J/kg MUCAPE). This will continue to support elevated
supercell structures capable of producing isolated severe hail. This
risk should generally be greatest across the eastern portion of the
watch area, and extending northeastward into far southeast
MO/northwest MS/southwest KY -- where the aforementioned low-level
jet will tend to focus thunderstorm activity. While isolated severe
hail potential will persist northeast of the watch, the downstream
severe risk appears too localized/marginal for an additional watch
at this time, though convective trends will be monitored.

..Weinman.. 04/04/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   34699284 35219258 35769212 36759039 36888980 36788920
            36558908 36188934 34569171 34449252 34699284

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN