894
ACUS11 KWNS 041905
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041904
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-042130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1562
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Areas affected...eastern Colorado into western Nebraska and Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 041904Z - 042130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...At least isolated storms capable of severe hail or strong
gusts are likely through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A surface trough is gradually deepening over eastern CO
this afternoon, with moisture wrapping southwestward out of
northeast CO. Just east, a very moist air mass exists very near the
CO/KS border, with upper 60s F dewpoints into KS.

A weak midlevel trough with increasing westerlies is currently
moving over the area, but very little cooling aloft is occurring.
However, the increasing mean winds combined with continued heating
should allow existing convection near the Front Range to proceed
east/southeast across the Plains. Marginally severe hail and wind
will be possible initially.

As these storms encounter the more unstable air mass toward the KS
border, an uptick in intensity may occur, with perhaps an increased
damaging wind threat. This area may need to be addressed again later
today or this evening as storms evolve.

..Jewell/Mosier.. 07/04/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   38510460 38950469 39480452 39670421 39520300 39190212
            38930155 38510119 37770084 37130100 36720163 36690239
            37040250 37440226 37730281 37940371 38240440 38510460

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN