842
ACUS11 KWNS 120222
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120222
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-120345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1651
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0922 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Areas affected...eastern New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandles

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 510...

Valid 120222Z - 120345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 510
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging wind threat is increasing within WW510.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms in eastern New Mexico have shown better
organization along outflow over the last 20-30 minutes. In addition,
cloud top cooling is noted on infrared satellite indicating some
uptick in intensity. As this line advances into the Texas Panhandle,
the damaging wind risk may increase over the next couple of hours.
The downstream environment remains favorable unstable. The 00z RAOB
from AMA shows steep low level lapse rates and ample MLCAPE. While
diurnal heating has ended and MLCIN is increasing, this line segment
will likely be able to maintain intensity for the next couple of
hours as it tracks southeastward aided by modest south easterlies
around 20-25 kts noted from KAMA. In addition, new development has
occurred ahead of the main line of storms which may pose a risk for
severe hail. Local expansion of WW510 may be needed into the OK/TX
Panhandles.

..Thornton.. 07/12/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35790107 35270114 35060136 34860168 34760253 34820342
            34840365 35190442 35460460 35770473 35880457 36080407
            36160351 36410309 36700279 36940285 37100284 37320247
            37080188 36590136 36390125 36190112 35910104 35790107

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN