516
ACUS11 KWNS 301724
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301724
NCZ000-301930-

Mesoscale Discussion 2128
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Areas affected...eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 301724Z - 301930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into
early evening across eastern North Carolina. This activity should
mostly be sub-severe, but sporadic strong gusts 45-60 mph and
perhaps a brief spin-up or two will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage over the next
couple of hours in the vicinity of a surface boundary draped across
eastern NC. Temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s F amid
dewpoints in the low 70s F are contributing to modest MLCAPE across
the region. Poor midlevel lapse rates should largely limit updraft
intensity. However, pockets of steeper low-level lapse rates and
moderate vertical shear should allow for transient organized cells
capable of producing gusty winds. Vertically veering low-level winds
amid locally enhanced low-level shear in the vicinity of the surface
boundary will be responsible for somewhat enlarged, curved
hodographs. Ongoing convection has shown some signs of weak
rotation, and this should continue through the afternoon. Given the
moist boundary-layer, a brief spin-up or two could occur. The
overall environment is expected to remain marginal, and any
stronger/organized convection will be sporadic/transient, precluding
watch issuance.

..Leitman/Hart.. 09/30/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   34407763 35047917 35367948 35987920 36327771 36257675
            35787646 34797663 34407763