067
ACUS11 KWNS 182335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182334
MNZ000-NDZ000-190100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2085
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Areas affected...Portions of northeastern North Dakota into far
northwestern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 182334Z - 190100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and locally
severe gusts cannot be ruled out during the next few hours. A watch
is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Attempts at convective initiation are underway across
portions of northeastern ND, focused within a north/south-oriented
confluence band, and near an antecedent differential heating zone.
This activity may be aided by a lobe of midlevel ascent (evident in
water-vapor imagery) rotating around the eastern periphery of a
midlevel low over eastern MT. Middle/upper 60s dewpoints beneath a
plume of steep midlevel lapse rates are contributing to moderate
surface-based instability ahead of the developing storms.
Additionally, regional VWP depicts a long hodograph with modest
low-level hodograph curvature -- characterized by around 45 kt of
effective shear. Given subtle mesoscale forcing, storm maturation is
uncertain (especially given increasing nocturnal static stability),
though the aforementioned parameter space will conditionally support
a couple organized storms/supercells capable of producing large hail
and locally severe gusts. Any severe threat here is expected to
remain too isolated for a watch at this time.

..Weinman/Hart.. 09/18/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   47429858 47399898 47609941 47889981 48140007 48590026
            48940030 49090015 49159962 49169781 49089698 48839669
            48129670 47719702 47429858