247
ACUS11 KWNS 282225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282225
WIZ000-MNZ000-282330-

Mesoscale Discussion 2415
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0525 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern Minnesota into western
Wisconsin

Concerning...Tornado Watch 698...

Valid 282225Z - 282330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 698 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for at least severe hail will continue over the
next few hours. The best severe threat, including the chance for a
tornado, will be with an ongoing supercell over southeastern MN.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms, including those with a
history of severe hail, continues ahead of a surface low. The
majority of hail reports and MRMS mosaic MESH signatures have been
with storms north of the warm front, where forcing for ascent has
been maximized amid elevated buoyancy. Over the last couple of
hours, thunderstorms have also intensified well ahead of the cold
front, along a surface trough, including a supercell over
southeastern MN. MRMS MESH indicates that 1-2 inch diameter hail may
be falling from this storm. Furthermore, while this supercell is
traversing the eastern edge of surface-based buoyancy and is merging
into a linear cluster, it is also approaching the warm front, where
effective SRH may be maximized (i.e. 300+ m2/s2 per latest
mesoanalysis). As such, the best chance for severe hazards
(including a tornado) would probably be associated with this storm
in the near term.

..Squitieri.. 10/28/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   45759347 46079219 46209124 45979076 45299068 44659090
            44409168 44409257 44489308 44739347 45759347

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN