346
ACUS11 KWNS 061905
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061905
FLZ000-062100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2214
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024

Areas affected...the Florida Keys

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 061905Z - 062100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A brief waterspout/onshore tornado will be possible this
afternoon within showery convection on the outer/northern periphery
of Hurricane Rafael.  Watch issuance will likely remain unnecessary.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar reflectivity loop from KBYX (Key West
WSR-88D) continues to depict a very loosely organized band of
convection/showers moving west-northwestward on the northern fringe
of Rafael, whose center remains just south of western Cuba at this
time.  A few of the showers have exhibited weak/rather transient
low-level rotation over the past several hours.  With low-level flow
quasi-unidirectional/westerly, but increasing in magnitude with
height, low-level shear is sufficient to support continued/weak
rotation within stronger convective elements.  Overall however,
given the weak/brief nature of the circulations that should remain
the case this afternoon, and thus no more than a weak/brief spout or
tornado expected, a tornado watch is not anticipated.

..Goss/Hart.. 11/06/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...

LAT...LON   24758288 24678188 24858116 24788096 24598100 24458177
            24498288 24638300 24758288