837
ACUS11 KWNS 041207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041206
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-041400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0392
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0706 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Areas affected...parts of nern OK...nrn AR...sern KS...srn and cntrl
MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 112...

Valid 041206Z - 041400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 112
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for severe hail is expected to lessen with time
as an evolving cluster of thunderstorms overspreads southern into
central Missouri through 9-11 AM CDT.  A new severe weather watch
probably will not be needed, but trends will continue to be
monitored.

DISCUSSION...Rapid east-northeastward progression of the
lower/mid-tropospheric forcing for ascent and associated stronger
convective development, near the leading edge of northward returning
plume of elevated mixed layer air, continues.  Through 14-16Z, the
primary clustering of thunderstorm activity appears likely to
overspread areas near and south of the Missouri Interstate 44
corridor, toward the Greater St. Louis vicinity.  This is getting
further removed from the stalled, sharp surface frontal zone now
across/just south of the Memphis through Texarkana vicinities.
However, models suggest that moisture return above the cold
surface-based air is maintaining inflow of air characterized by CAPE
in excess of 1000 J/kg.

With convection continuing to consolidate into less discrete
elements the risk for severe hail seems likely to lessen with
northeastward progression.  A few gusts approaching severe limits
have recently been observed to the southeast of Tulsa.  However,
barring the development of a more substantive surface pressure
perturbation, which may not be out of the question, but seems low in
probability, the risk for severe surface gusts probably will not
increase.

..Kerr.. 04/04/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON   37649399 38629106 37089000 35799179 35249316 35079423
            36649578 37649399

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN