Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
549 ACUS11 KWNS 150050 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150050 SDZ000-150245- Mesoscale Discussion 1671 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Areas affected...parts of south central South Dakota and adjacent northern Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 511... Valid 150050Z - 150245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 511 continues. SUMMARY...As storms spread into south central South Dakota during the next couple of hours, intensities may begin to wane, but an additional strong downburst or two remains possible. DISCUSSION...A linear band of stronger thunderstorm development persists north through northeast of the Pine Ridge Reservation, along the leading edge of a conglomerate surface cold pool. This is advancing eastward into a lingering strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary-layer west of Winner northward into the Pierre vicinity. Although it is not clear that this air mass is characterized by sufficient instability to maintain vigorous thunderstorm development, it still appears conducive to an additional strong downburst or two, before convection weakens. The strong to severe gust potential could be aided by the downward transfer of momentum associated with nocturnal low-level jet strengthening as the boundary-layer begins to decouple. ..Kerr.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR... LAT...LON 43410128 43890067 44310007 43149963 43080175 43410128