170
ACUS11 KWNS 060007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060006
MIZ000-WIZ000-060130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2130
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0706 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

Areas affected...portions of northern and eastern Wisconsin into
western Upper Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 060006Z - 060130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should increase in coverage and organization
this evening. A few instances of severe hail and perhaps a couple of
damaging wind gusts are possible.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing ahead of an approaching
cold front over western WI, as deep-layer ascent from a rapidly
approaching upper trough and 700 mb CAA overspreads the Upper MS
Valley. Ahead of the cold front, Surface-850 mb WAA supports
marginal destabilization across Wisconsin into Upper MI, with
500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE noted per 23Z mesoanalysis. Strong tropospheric
wind fields are in place, with 35-50 kts of southerly 925-850 mb
flow overspread by 60+ kts of westerlies at the mid-levels,
contributing to 50-70 kts of effective bulk shear. Strong
directional wind shear in the 925-500 mb layer supports large,
curved hodographs and the associated potential for supercell
structures.

Nonetheless, buoyancy is scant, largely due to modest low-level
moisture, with most of the aforementioned MUCAPE constrained well
above 700 mb (per latest RAP forecast soundings). Furthermore,
appreciable MLCINH remains in place. While strong forcing and shear
support storm organization, limited buoyancy suggests that most
storms, including any supercells that materialize, will likely be
elevated in nature. Some potential for severe hail exists given
strong wind shear coinciding with 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates,
and a damaging gust or two also cannot be ruled out. Overall, the
severe threat may remain isolated through the evening and overnight
hours.

..Squitieri/Kerr.. 10/06/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...

LAT...LON   44179069 45999056 46738987 46908886 46438743 45708714
            44658727 44048766 43818831 43788943 44179069