Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 031657
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031657
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-031900-
Mesoscale Discussion 1548
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025
Areas affected...the Northeast
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 031657Z - 031900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered damaging winds and isolated severe
hail will be possible as initially isolated storms increase across
parts of the Northeast. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is
likely.
DISCUSSION...Initial sustained storm development is underway across
southwest NY, with scattered agitated CU over northeast PA and
southeast NY. A plume of moderate buoyancy will expand eastward from
western/central PA and southwest NY, aiding in strengthening
convective intensity as storms mature. A strong mid-level westerly
jetlet atop already veered and weak low-level winds will yield
hodograph elongation. Combined with weak low-level ascent, the setup
should support generally semi-discrete cells with transient
mid-level updraft rotation. As such, isolated severe hail will be
possible and the overall coverage of the convective wind threat
might be subdued until late-afternoon clustering becomes more
probable.
..Grams/Mosier.. 07/03/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
LAT...LON 42777681 42857547 43117355 42927285 42507218 42057209
41497245 40917352 40807456 41037586 41427685 42297745
42777681
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN