795
ACUS11 KWNS 191232
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191232
FLZ000-191430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0037
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

Areas affected...Portions of North and west-central Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 191232Z - 191430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will be
possible this morning into early afternoon in parts of North/Central
Florida. A watch is not currently expected.

DISCUSSION...Temperatures in central Florida have slowly risen into
the low 70s F this morning. A line of storms moving eastward south
and east of Gainesville have shown some intensification as they have
encountered the modestly unstable air. Given the wind fields in
place, this activity, though perhaps only weakly surface based, will
be organized. Strong/damaging gusts may occur as muted surface
heating continues into the afternoon. Though surface winds are
veered, area VAD profiles do show sufficient SRH for a brief tornado
in the strongest storms. The observed 12Z Tampa sounding showed
relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. This, combined with modest
MLCAPE, should keep the severe threat marginal/isolated.

Additional storms are noted offshore west of the Tampa vicinity.
These storms should eventually approach the shore and pose a similar
wind gust/brief tornado threat.

..Wendt/Hart.. 01/19/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   27758307 28818288 29458251 29848173 29888122 29328101
            28598194 28058232 27648275 27688287 27758307