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FGUS74 KMAF 172021
ESFMAF
TXC033-227-335-415-182030-

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
321 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024

...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Long Range
Probabilistic Outlook for the Colorado and Pecos River Basins
in West Texas and Southeast New Mexico...

The National Weather Service office in Midland, Texas has
implemented the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for
the Colorado River Basin in West Texas. AHPS enables the National
Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This
service is also available on the internet.

In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the
next 90 days. Example: The Colorado River at Colorado City has a
flood stage of 15.0 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the
Colorado City Forecast point will not rise above 5.5 feet during
the next 90 days.

          Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations
                 Valid [ 10/20/2024 - 01/18/2025 ]

Location          FS(ft)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------          ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
Colorado River
 Colorado City      15.0  4.1  4.2  4.8  5.0  5.5  6.4  6.9  8.4 10.8
Deep Creek
 Dunn 1W            14.0  3.0  3.1  3.3  3.3  3.3  3.3  3.4  3.5  5.2
Beals Creek
 Westbrook 11S      22.5  2.6  3.4  3.6  3.7  5.2  6.0  7.6  9.9 15.4
Pecos River
 Artesia 6E         12.5  2.6  2.6  2.6  2.6  2.7  2.8  3.0  3.3  6.2
 Carlsbad 9NW       20.0  2.0  2.0  2.0  2.0  2.0  2.0  2.0  2.0  2.0
 Carlsbad 2E        14.0  0.9  0.9  0.9  0.9  0.9  1.0  1.0  1.1  1.4
 Malaga 3ESE        30.0  3.0  3.0  3.0  3.1  3.1  3.1  3.2  3.4  4.4
 Malaga 10S         20.0  3.7  3.7  3.7  3.7  3.8  3.8  4.1  4.2  5.0
 Sheffield 3ESE     28.0  2.4  2.4  2.4  2.4  2.4  2.4  2.4  2.4  2.5
Rio Penasco
 Dayton 2WNW        20.0  0.5  0.5  0.5  0.5  0.5  0.5  0.5  0.5  0.5
Fourmile Draw
 Lakewood 4NNW      12.0  2.2  2.2  2.2  2.2  2.2  2.2  2.2  2.2  2.2
Rocky Arroyo
 Lakewood 7S        12.0  4.3  4.3  4.3  4.3  4.3  4.3  4.3  4.3  4.3
Dark Canyon
 Carlsbad           15.0  5.5  5.5  5.5  5.5  5.5  5.5  5.5  5.5  5.5
Black River
 Malaga 5W          18.0  1.1  1.1  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.3  1.3  1.4  1.6
Delaware River
 Red Bluff 11NW     26.0  3.8  3.8  3.9  3.9  3.9  4.0  4.1  4.1  4.3
Independence Creek
 Sheffield 18SSE    11.0  5.0  5.0  5.1  5.1  5.1  5.1  5.2  5.3  5.9

Lake JB Thomas
    90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
 2235.4 2235.4 2235.4 2235.4 2235.4 2235.4 2235.8 2236.7 2239.2

Lake Colorado City
    90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
 2064.7 2064.7 2064.7 2064.7 2064.7 2064.7 2064.9 2065.7 2067.5

Champion Creek Reservoir
    90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
 2066.2 2066.2 2066.2 2066.2 2066.2 2066.2 2066.3 2066.9 2067.4

This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are
calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical
climatological and stream flow data.  These numbers also take into
account current conditions of the river and soil moisture.  By
providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the level
of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined.

Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the
internet at:

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=maf

Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third
Thursday of every month.

$$

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