901
FXUS64 KMAF 081707
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1107 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1107 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

- Cold Weather Advisory in effect until noon CST /11 AM MST/
  today for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.

- High Wind Warning in effect until 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ this
  morning for Guadalupe Pass. High Wind Watch in effect from
  Thursday evening through Friday morning for Guadalupe Pass.

- Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ early
  this morning to 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ Friday for Southeast New
  Mexico, Culberson, Jeff Davis, Presidio, and Brewster Counties,
  and the Davis Mountain Foothills.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 245 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

WV imagery this morning shows the upper trough centered over far
northwest Sonora, putting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under
aggressive southwest flow aloft.  Closer to home, a cold front is
moving through the area, although hard to pinpoint, as northeasterly
flow was already in place, and it was already cold.  Models still
develop high gap winds through KGDP as a result of this feature, but
falling below criteria around sunrise.  Also as a result of CAA,
this morning should be the coldest or this forecast, w/the front
shaving 3-4 F off yesterday morning`s lows.  As cold as it is, this
morning`s lows should average only ~ 2-4 F below normal.  For these
parts, however, and considering windchill, that`s plenty cold
enough for the cold wx advisory in effect.

Area radars are pretty clear at the moment, but showing weak echoes
over Southeast New Mexico, where a flurry or two may be present.
This is a poor coverage area for KMAF, w/the radar overshooting most
expected activity regardless.  The latest HRRR brings snow showers
into northwest Eddy County beginning around 12Z as isentropic
upglide begins.

W/CAA continuing, today likewise looks like the coldest day this
forecast, with highs in the 30s or lower all areas but the Rio
Grande Valley and lower Trans Pecos.  Still, highs should average a
bitter ~ 20 F below normal.  This is a little warmer than what
models have been portending the past few days.  However, forecast
soundings suggest dry air in the lower levels will play hob with
temperatures as wet-bulbing occurs w/any precip, so locations
w/better precip will likely end up cooler than what`s in the grids.
For today, however, due to post-frontal CAA, p-type looks all snow.

Tonight, unfortunately, boundary layer winds back to the south,
introducing a warm nose into the (literal) mix.  Surface temps won`t
be much warmer than this morning`s, and this will produce a wintry
mix, moreso as one heads south.  Latest models and QPF now develop -
FZRA, especially from the Presidio Valley northeast through the
Stockton Plateau/lower Trans Pecos.  Significant accumulations don`t
look to begin accruing until after 06Z Thursday.  A glance at soil
temps suggests temperatures are going to have to come down a bit
over the next 24 hours for accumulations on anything but elevated
surfaces.  W/the way this event has changed over the past 48 hours,
and models differing on the magnitude (if any) of the warm nose,
confidence is too low to jump on this just yet, and we`d prefer to
let the next shift to make the call on possibly extending the winter
wx advisory east.

Thursday, w/boundary layer WAA continuing, we should see a
transition to -RASN moving up from the south, and even all rain
showers for much of West Texas by late afternoon.  Temperatures
should top out above freezing, yet well-below normal, everywhere but
the highest elevations of the Guadalupes.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

Thursday night, a secondary cold front arrives, changing liquid
precip back to show most locations.  This will end isentropic
upglide, w/precip tapering off to the south.  w/the arrival of the
front, high winds look likely again through KGDP, so we`ll issue a
watch for that.

Weather will be clearing as some minor short wave ridging approaches
from the northwest on Friday, with highs mainly in the 30s and 40s
and lows Saturday morning in the 20s and 30s. Temperatures will be
moderating some, nearing normal for highs Saturday and staying about
five degrees below normal for lows. A short wave trough in the
broadly cyclonic flow will increase clouds across the northern tier
of counties of the Permian Basin Sunday. Passage of this feature to
the north of the southern High Plains will also serve to drive a
reinforcing shot of cold air across west Texas and southeastern New
Mexico, dropping highs into mainly the 40s and 50s (with some 60s
along the Rio Grande Valley. Lows will be in the 20s north to 30s
south. These conditions are expected to persist through late next
work week, and the forecast looks to be dry at this time. -bc

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1107 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

Will maintain VFR through the TAF period, but expect CIGs to drop to
near MVFR heights. Snow showers that may impact CNM/HOB will reduce
visibility this afternoon and into this evening. Precipitation will
be possible at all other terminals with the exception of MAF. Precip
types will change tonight, but not confident to include with
current issuance. Winds shift southerly tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               36  27  43  28 /  10  20  40  10
Carlsbad                 37  24  43  26 /  20  30  40  30
Dryden                   43  29  45  32 /  10  20  50  40
Fort Stockton            39  27  49  29 /  20  40  30  40
Guadalupe Pass           29  23  38  22 /  40  40  40  30
Hobbs                    37  23  42  24 /  20  20  40  20
Marfa                    34  22  48  25 /  30  40  30  60
Midland Intl Airport     38  27  43  28 /  10  20  30  10
Odessa                   38  28  43  29 /  10  20  30  20
Wink                     37  25  43  29 /  20  40  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for
     Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos
     Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
     Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County
     Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday for
     Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Presidio
     Valley-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for Central
     Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Friday for Central Lea-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...93