865
FXUS64 KMAF 081933
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
233 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 157 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

- A few showers and thunderstorms (10-30 percent chance) are
  expected this afternoon and evening, with the best chance across
  southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain areas of west Texas.

- Seasonably hot temperatures continue through Wednesday, with
  temperatures trending slightly above normal during the latter
  part of the week.

- Near normal temperatures and low rain chances return over the
  weekend and early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

A ridge of high pressure builds over northwestern Mexico and the
Desert Southwest to start off the short term period. This feature
inches closer to our area Wednesday afternoon an into Thursday as
shortwave trough swings from the Pacific Northwest to the Central
Great Plains. However, today, we will be on the eastern edge of the
ridge and subsidence will be weaker compared to areas out west. This
allows for low (10-30%) rain chances through this evening over the
Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico, where daytime heating and
outflow from other storms up north may help trigger shower/storm
development. Some of the strongest storms will have the potential to
produce damaging winds and large hail, though coverage shall be
sparse. Rain chances come to an end overnight and temperatures cool
to the upper 60s to low 70s. Wednesday, highs top out mainly in the
90s, under sunny to mostly sunny skies. wednesday night lows will be
similar to the night before. Warmer conditions are on tap at the
beginning of the long term period.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

An upper level ridge of high pressure will remain elongated from
southern California and the Baja region to southeast New Mexico
and much of west Texas Thursday and Friday. Dry conditions are
anticipated across the region under the influence of this feature
on Thursday afternoon. A few thunderstorms developing along the
higher terrain of eastern New Mexico may round the edge of the
ridge axis and push into portions of southeast New Mexico, the
Guadalupe Mountains, and possibly the northwest Permian Basin
Thursday night, so will maintain a mention of isolated (10-20
percent chance) showers and thunderstorms over these locations
then. Additional weak shortwave impulses along the eastern
periphery of the upper level ridge axis and an increase in deep
layer moisture will support an increased chance of showers and
thunderstorms Friday into Friday night, with the best chances
favored over western and northern portions of our forecast area.
Heat will otherwise continue to build during the latter part of
the week, with highs in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees over much
of the area on Thursday (and up to 104 degrees or so along the Rio
Grande). Highs by Friday still look to trend slightly hotter in
the mid/upper 90s to around 102 degrees over much of the region
and up to 104-108 degrees along the Rio Grande. Overnight lows
will generally range in the 70s, except 60s in higher elevation
areas.

The upper level ridge axis still looks to retrograde westward this
weekend into early next week, while another upper ridge becomes
centered along the Gulf Coast states. Medium range solutions
generally are in consensus with showing increased boundary layer
moisture over our forecast area Saturday-Monday between these two
features which would favor the daily development of isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs may trend just a few
degrees lower this weekend into Monday of next week, or generally
near to slightly below average for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

VFR conditions look to prevail at most sites through the period.
Isolated showers/storms may develop in the vicinity of HOB and
CNM later this afternoon and into the evening. Therefore, PROB30s
were included at these sites. Should storms develop near the
terminals, the main threats will be lightning and gusty winds.
Otherwise, surface winds trend on the light side, out of the south
and southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72  95  72  96 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 70  94  71  97 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                   74  96  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            71  95  71  98 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           68  88  69  91 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                    68  92  69  93 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                    64  90  63  92 /   0  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     73  95  73  96 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   71  93  72  95 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                     71  95  71  97 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...95