671
FXUS64 KMAF 241125
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
625 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 622 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

- Dry weather and seasonably hot temperatures continue through
  Monday.

- Slightly cooler temperatures return Tuesday and Wednesday. There
  will also be a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
  through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery this morning
shows the upper ridge centered just southwest of the Four Corners.
Closer to home, the absence of an appreciable LLJ, mostly clear
skies, and easterly flow will allow overnight minimums to within 2-4
F of climatology.

Today, the ridge is forecast to develop east a bit, increasing
thicknesses, but resulting in temperatures just a skosh warmer than
yesterday`s.  KMAF 00Z RAOB came in w/a PWAT of just 0.82", or about
the 15th percentile and just over 2 std devs below normal.  Despite
light easterly upslope flow, this does not provide a lot of moisture
to work with, and rain chances remain slim-to-none.

Tonight, the LLJ tries to develop, but remains tepid.  Easterly
surface flow will veer to southeast,  This will combine with a few
more clouds to add a couple of degrees on to overnight lows.  Rain
chances remain nil.

Monday, the ridge moves east over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico, courtesy of a trough muscling onto the west coast.
Thicknesses peak, yielding perhaps the warmest day this forecast
as highs top out ~ 3-5 F above normal. Rain chances remain
elusive.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

The upper-level ridge axis will generally become oriented from
the Four Corners and into New Mexico and much of Texas Monday
night and Tuesday. An upper level trough continuing to dig across
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will send a cold front southward
through the Texas Panhandle and over the Red River Valley by
Monday night before this boundary becomes positioned along the far
northern fringes of our forecast area by Tuesday. The latest
forecast model guidance has trended a little stronger with ridging
aloft over our forecast area on Tuesday, and generally keeps the
better quality deep layer moisture focused to the north of our
region. It therefore looks like rain chances over our forecast
area have decreased somewhat on Tuesday as compared to what we
were looking at yesterday. However, moisture availability along
the vicinity of the boundary still looks sufficient to keep at
least a slight chance (15-20 percent) of showers and thunderstorms
in the forecast across the Permian Basin on Tuesday. Low-level
easterly to southeasterly upslope flow will also support keeping a
little better chance (20-40 percent) of afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast over the Guadlupe/Davis
Mountains, portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains, Van Horn
Corridor, Marfa Plateau, the Big Bend, and the Lower Trans Pecos
region on Tuesday.

A similar scenario looks to set up on Wednesday with upper-level
ridging remaining amplified over southeast New Mexico and west
Texas. The surface boundary may become more diffuse with a
lingering surface trough extending from southeast New Mexico into
portions of west Texas by Wednesday afternoon. Sufficient moisture
and instability along this trough axis will support keeping a
decent chance (30-50 percent) of showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast over southeast New Mexico and across locations west of
the Pecos River in west Texas. Shower/storm coverage may be
locally numerous (near 60 percent) in the higher elevations of the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, while isolated to scattered
coverage of showers/storms (20-30 percent chance) develop in the
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos region on Wednesday. Slightly
cooler temperatures are still anticipated Tuesday and Wednesday,
with readings looking to range in the upper 80s to lower 90s over
much of the region, except for lower to mid 80s in the mountains
and in the mid 90s to around 102 degrees along the Rio Grande.

The latest ensemble guidance indicates that ridging aloft will hold
across west Texas and southeast New Mexico through the latter part
of the week. Weak shortwave impulses embedded within the ridge
may traverse portions of our area each day and will combine with
sufficient moisture and instability to support keeping a daily
chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast Thursday-
Saturday. NBM may be just a little optimistic with POPs late in
the extended over parts of our area, but we opted to make no
changes. High temperatures will range in the upper 80s to mid 90s
for most, except for lower to mid 80s in the mountains and upper
90s to around 105 along the Rio Grande. Morning lows remain
seasonably mild in the 60s to lower 70s over most locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. Light
and variable winds early this morning will become easterly to
southeasterly between 5-10 knots over most terminals late this
morning into this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               94  71  97  70 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 93  69  95  69 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                   95  71  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            93  69  95  69 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           84  66  87  67 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                    91  68  93  66 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                    85  57  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     94  72  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   93  71  94  70 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                     93  70  96  70 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...21