496
FXUS64 KMAF 042318
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
518 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 504 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

 - Colder temperatures return Thursday into Friday behind the
   passage of a cold front. Rain chances also increase Thursday
   night through Saturday.

 - Another storm system looks to arrive later in the period,
   bringing colder air to the region. More details to come...

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 222 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Southwesterly flow aloft prevails across west Texas and southeastern
New Mexico this afternoon in advance of an upper level low spinning
over Arizona. A cold front is meanwhile pushing across the eastern
New Mexico Plains and southern Texas Panhandle this afternoon. Skies
have cleared over our area except for a few high clouds passing
overhead. The cold front is still on track to move across our
forecast area late tonight through early Thursday morning. Winds
will turn northeasterly following frontal passage, with clouds also
increasing in coverage into the day Thursday. Moisture and ascent
will increase over our area Thursday afternoon into Thursday night
in association with increasing difluence ahead of the upper level
low that will remain located over the vicinity of southern Arizona.
Rain chances will be very limited (20% or less) during the day
Thursday. However, rain chances should increase to 30-50% over
portions of southeast New Mexico and much of southwest Texas
(locations along and west of the Trans Pecos) late Thursday night as
precipitable water values improve to 0.6-0.9 inches and ascent
continues to increase within the difluent pattern. Rainfall amounts
should be relatively light, but a few locations could receive up to
0.1" to 0.2". Temperatures may also be just cold enough to allow for
a mix of light rain and snow in the Guadalupe Mountains in the pre-
dawn hours of Friday morning, but we currently do not anticipate any
accumulation through 6 AM Friday morning.

Lows tonight and Thursday night will trend colder in the mid to
upper 30s over the northern Permian Basin as well as in the higher
terrain areas with readings in the 40s across the remainder of the
region. High temperatures on Thursday will also trend colder behind
the front, with readings in the 40s in the mountains and in the 50s
over southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, and the Trans Pecos.
Warmer readings in the 60s and 70s are anticipated over the Big Bend
and along the Rio Grande.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Friday, an upper-level low centered over southern Arizona/northern
Sonora will continue to track its way toward our area. This allows
for more moisture advection that, when combined with lift from both
the trough and upslope winds, result in additional rain chances.
Currently, PoPs range between 20%-40% across the region throughout
the day. Temperatures top out in the 40s and 50s, with a few spots
near the Rio Grande warming into the lower 60s.

PoPs taper off Friday evening, but return early Saturday morning
ranging between 20%-30% areawide. Overall rainfall totals remain
light (< 0.1"). Rain chances come to an end as the trough axis
begins to exit our area Saturday evening. Temperatures in the upper
30s and 40s kick start our Saturday morning, then highs warm into
the 50s, with 60s once again along the border.

Mild conditions are on tap Sunday and Monday ahead of another cold
front. Highs in the 60s and 70s become more commonplace on Sunday as
the first trough departs and westerly to southwesterly surface flow
returns and thickness increases. Monday`s forecast has the potential
to bust in terms of highs depending on the timing of our next front.
At the moment, highs look to be similar to Sunday, in the 60s and
70s, on behalf of downslope warming from westerly winds kicks in.
The cold front looks to arrive overnight, resulting in lows in the
mid 20s to mid 30s. However, if the cold front should arrive sooner,
highs could be much cooler. The potential for strong gap winds near
Guadalupe Pass may also be of concern as the front sweeps through.
No rain is expected with this system. By Tuesday, highs range within
the mid 40s to 50s.

-Lopez

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 504 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

A weak cold front has progressed through the region resulting in
VFR conditions and light, mainly northeasterly winds. A secondary
front will move through the region late tomorrow morning and early
afternoon. Winds become mostly easterly behind this front and
MVFR ceilings are expected across much of the area. At this time
confidence in the extent of fuel-alternate MVFR ceilings is low.
MAF and INK may only briefly fall to this level and PEQ and FST
have the best chance of these ceilings. Confidence in sustained
MVFR ceilings at CNM and HOB remains low at this time. An
eventual fall to IFR ceilings late in the period could materialize
as well. This will be monitored and included in later forecasts
if confidence increases in this outcome.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               40  56  37  49 /   0   0   0  30
Carlsbad                 41  55  42  47 /   0  10  20  50
Dryden                   49  63  47  53 /   0  10  30  30
Fort Stockton            43  59  44  53 /   0  10  20  30
Guadalupe Pass           41  48  39  44 /   0  20  30  40
Hobbs                    38  55  37  46 /   0   0  10  50
Marfa                    43  57  43  53 /   0  10  40  30
Midland Intl Airport     41  56  40  48 /   0   0  10  30
Odessa                   42  56  40  48 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                     43  58  42  48 /   0  10  20  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...91