320
FXUS64 KMAF 300652
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
152 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Latest water vapor imagery indicates ridging maintaining its
control just to the west of the region early this morning, with
the trough over the eastern CONUS developing an increasingly
negative tilt. The trough is progged to weaken somewhat over the
next 24 to 48 hours, with the aforementioned ridge building
eastward across the southern Plains in its wake. Locally, this
means more of the same - chilly mornings followed by warm
afternoons with sunny skies, light winds, and no chance of rain.
After a cool start this morning as lows drop to the middle 50s to
around 60 degrees for most, temperatures will rebound nicely with
highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s, with a return of triple
digits possible along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend. Another
seasonably cool night then follows tonight with lows in the 50s
and lower 60s, and upper 40s possible across the Marfa Plateau.
The only item of interest in the short term is a weak cold front
that looks to move into the region beneath northerly flow aloft
early Tuesday morning. However, emphasis is on the word "weak",
with the only evidence of this front being a northeasterly to
easterly wind shift, a few hours of breezy conditions, and
slightly cooler afternoon temperatures. Highs Tuesday will reach
the 80s for most with 90s focused along the river valleys, still a
couple degrees above normal for the first day of October despite
the "cold" front.

JP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Deterministic models such as ECMWF, GFS, CMC, and ICON persist in
showing 1000-500 mb thicknesses above 570 decameters for the CWA
throughout the extended, with LREF TLE-NH Grand Ensemble and
cluster ensembles also showing 500 mb geopotential heights above
580 decameters. This along with surface high pressure over the
Great Plains maintaining mostly clear skies, dry conditions, and
dew point temperatures in the 40s and 50s, 30s westernmost regions
allowing for efficient radiational cooling all continue to
translate to temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above average and
diurnal range of 25 to 35 degrees, although higher heights in
upper ridging over the western CONUS persist in preventing
southerly return flow aloft, with the core of warmer temperatures
associated with the ridge remaining west of the CWA. Highs in the
80s and low 90s, triple digits near the Rio Grande, and lows
falling into the 50s and 60s are forecast, with dew point
temperatures resulting in pleasant apparent temperatures cooler
than actual temperatures during the day. There is some uncertainty
with the upper air pattern that could affect how far south cold
fronts clipping northern parts of the CWA at the end of the week
into next weekend may get. ECMWF, CMC, and ICON as well as DESI
ensembles show a more amplified upper pattern with a deeper trough
over the Northern Great Plains than GFS, with WPC analysis
indicating cold fronts may get a bit farther south than previously
indicated. During these brushes with cold fronts, south to
southeast winds back to easterly for a few hours, which along with
surface lee troughing from SE NM into westernmost portions of TX
and mountain and valley flows from heating of elevated terrain,
may result in gusty winds up to 20 mph from the Davis Mountains
into the northern Guadalupe Mountains. The fronts later this
period appear weaker than Tuesday`s, with gusty winds remaining
limited to higher terrain. With the storm track remaining far to
the north above 40 degrees latitude and large scale subsidence
from ridging, no measurable rain chances are expected into next
week, with PoPs near zero.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

VFR conditions and light southerly to southeasterly winds will
continue the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               90  60  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 93  57  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   93  64  93  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            92  60  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           87  60  78  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    89  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    87  47  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     90  60  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   90  60  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     93  58  90  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...84