497
FXUS64 KMAF 061107
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
607 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 606 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

- A Freeze Warning remains in effect across most of the area
  through late Sunday morning due to near and below freezing
  temperatures.

- Near freezing morning temperatures and below-normal afternoon
  temperatures on Monday.

- Warm and sunny weather with temperatures near to above normal
  beginning on Tuesday and lasting into at least next weekend. No
  rain is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Not much change to the forecast for the short term. Radar showed
scattered rain and snow showers across Lea County late this evening,
but precipitation is starting to decrease and ceilings are starting
to rise with subsidence in the wake of the short wave trough now
farther east of the area. Lows in the lower to mid 30s for most of
the area with upper 20s higher elevations of W TX and western and
northern most parts of SE NM plains, and upper 30s to lower 40s Rio
Grande basins into Terrell County. A Freeze Warning is in effect
into this morning for expected near to below freezing temperatures
for most of the area except the Rio Grande basins into Terrell
County. However, temperatures have remained above freezing so far
for most locations in the Freeze Warning as remnant low cloud cover
has limited radiational cooling. Mean ensemble temperatures around
sunrise today have the most of the region east of the higher
elevations of W TX above freezing, but spreads in temperature stay
low and only a few degrees due to light winds. If skies can clear
before sunrise today, wider coverage of near to below freezing
temperatures is possible over portions of the Marfa Plateau, SE NM
plains, and Permian Basin. Highs today remain around 20 degrees
below average, translating to 50s, mid to upper 40s higher
elevations, and lower to mid 60s Rio Grande basins into Terrell
County. There is high probability of highs less than 55F for most
regions aside from along the Pecos River and Rio Grande basins into
Terrell County, with a high probability of highs in ensembles up to
the mid 60s only in the Big Bend. Tonight, lows in the NBM end up
around 10 degrees below average and in the lower to mid 30s, upper
30s to lower 40s Rio Grande basins into Terrell County and higher
elevations from the Stockton Plateau into Culberson and Eddy
Counties. Ensembles have low spread for lows Sunday night except for
the Grand Ensemble, which depicts a spread of up to 10 degrees over
the Upper Trans Pecos and SE NM plains into the central and northern
Permian Basin. A low probability of lows less than 35F aside from
the Marfa Plateau is indicated in most ensembles other than the
Canadian GEPS, which has a high probability of lows less than 35F
and near freezing nearly areawide Sunday night. Lows have trended up
by a few degrees in more recent NBM runs, so this is looking less
likely and stuck with NBM for now.

Highs Monday will be notably warmer than the past few days, but
still up to 5 to 10 degrees below average for early April, with mid
60s to lower 70s, upper 50s higher elevations, and mid 70s to lower
80s along the Rio Grande into Terrell County as depicted in the NBM.
This warming take place as northerly flow veers to southwesterly and
southerly as 500 mb geopotential heights rise above 570 decameters
and 1000-500 mb thicknesses again rise above 550 decameters, in
association with building ridging over the Intermountain West. Due
to the recent cold spell, WAA will be slow to act, with temperatures
taking some time to increase back to above average. This is only the
beginning of a warming pattern that will become even more apparent
later next week as heights and thicknesses rise even farther. More
on this in the Long Term Discussion.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

After a dynamic weather system late last week and this weekend, much
quieter weather returns to the region for the new week. Mid-level
ridging quickly takes over across the western third of the United
States early in the week. Temperatures on Tuesday start above
freezing in the upper 30s and low 40s. A warm southwesterly wind and
sunny skies push afternoon temperatures back to near normal across
the region. An enjoyable afternoon in the upper 70s and low 80s can
be expected for many. Continued intensification of the ridge by mid-
week further pushes temperatures higher. A warmer morning in the
upper 40s and low 50s starts the day on Wednesday. Temperatures
climb above normal into the 80s for the majority by Wednesday
afternoon. A weak weather system swings across the Great Lakes
region late in the week. This may push a cold front through the area
heading into Thursday. While I say a cold front, this will merely
drop temperatures a handful of degrees with a northerly wind shift.
Temperatures remain above normal despite this front to close out the
week. Even warmer temperatures appear likely by next weekend with
the mid-level ridge further intensifying. No rain is anticipated
with mid-level ridging dominating the forecast.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

MVFR CIGs lifting to VFR by 13Z-18Z today. VFR VIS prevails at
all terminals into end of period after CIGs lift to VFR. Northwest
winds with speeds up to 15 knots from 16Z this morning through
the afternoon for terminals across Stockton Plateau into Permian
Basin and Lea County, then decreasing by 23Z-01Z in the evening.
Winds then veer to southwest at terminals by 01Z-06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               57  34  72  40 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 56  35  69  40 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   61  39  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            57  38  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           47  38  62  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    55  33  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    52  32  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     57  36  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   57  37  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     57  35  72  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning for
     Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos
     Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
     Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for Central Lea-Eddy
     County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern
     Lea-Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...94