858
FXUS64 KMAF 211126
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
626 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 622 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

- Temperatures will be near normal today and Friday. A few showers
  and thunderstorms (10-30 percent chance) will develop, mainly
  over the Davis Mountains, Big Bend, and Lower Trans Pecos region
  today and Friday.

- After a dry end of the week and weekend, easterly winds shift to
  south/southeast with a return of more humid 60s F dew point
  temperatures by Tuesday and an increase of rain probabilities.

- Tuesday into Wednesday, a moderate probability of 0.25" to 0.50"
  of rain exists across the area. Rain chances increase to 35% to
  45%, (45% to 60% higher elevations) Wednesday. Cooler
  temperatures expected by the middle part of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 133 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Upper-level high pressure will remain centered over the vicinity
of the Four Corners through Friday afternoon. A surface ridge will
meanwhile extend from the Upper Midwest to the central and
southern Plains today, while a weak surface boundary stretches
across the Lower Trans Pecos and portions of the Big Bend.
Isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop over southern portions of
our forecast area where deep layer moisture will be slightly more
enhanced near the weak surface boundary. We will keep a low chance
(20-30 percent) of rain in the forecast over areas mainly south
of Interstate 10 today, although a few isolated showers/storms
(10-20 percent) chance could also develop over the vicinity of the
Permian Basin. The rest of the area should generally remain dry
in closer proximity to the upper- level ridge. Isolated showers
and storms may linger over the Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend
region through the early to mid evening hours before dissipating.
High temperatures today are forecast to range in the lower to mid
90s over most of the region, except in the 80s over higher terrain
areas and in the mid 90s to around 102 degrees along the Rio
Grande. Lows tonight will mostly range in the mid 60s to lower
70s, except for readings in the upper 50s to lower 60s over higher
terrain areas.

A similar pattern continues on Friday, except that slightly drier
and more subsident conditions are anticipated over most of the
region along the southeastern periphery of the upper-level ridge
axis. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms (10-20 percent
chance) may develop in the Davis Mountains, Marfa Plateau, Big
Bend, and Lower Trans Pecos regions, but we expect that most
locations will remain dry. Highs on Friday will be very similar to
today over most locations, perhaps a degree or two warmer in
spots.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 133 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

The forecast area will be under the influence of a broad high
pressure ridge to start the period. A stationary front to our
north and east provides the focus for most development of clouds
and rain chances, but remains too far away to bring significant
moisture in our CWA, as dew point temperatures drop into the 50s
F. With clearer skies and less boundary layer moisture, nighttime
lows drop into the 60s F, lower 70s F Pecos River into Terrell
County, and lower to mid 70s F along Rio Grande with upper 50s F
to lower 60s F over the Marfa Plateau. Mid to upper ridging
remains firmly in place this weekend, with the large scale sinking
motion keeping rain chances very low to almost nonexistent over
the area, even for elevated terrain. With mostly clear skies
allowing for ample daytime heating of the late August sun, highs
rise into lower to mid 90s F, mid to upper 80s F higher
elevations, and upper 90s F along Rio Grande, with triple digit
readings confined to Big Bend. The continued low dew point
temperatures and mostly clear skies allow lows to fall into the
60s F over most of the area, with 50s F higher elevations of Marfa
Plateau and 70s F along Pecos River into eastern and southern
parts of the forecast area as on Friday night.

The dry pattern persists into early next week, but a rainier and
cooler interlude coming into view. Mid to upper ridging over the
Four Corners and Desert Southwest weakens and develops farther
west into the Great Basin. This allows easterly winds to veer more
south/southeasterly, with dew point temperatures climbing from
the 50s F into 60s F by Tuesday. After a Monday and Monday night
similar to the past few days, rain probabilities increase back to
low to medium (25% to 35%) for Big Bend, Upper Trans Pecos, SE NM
plains, and northwest and central Permian Basin by Tuesday
afternoon, as the quasi-stationary front that lingered over
northwest TX through the weekend begins to develop southwest in
northeasterly flow on east side of ridge. Increased cloud and rain
chances drop highs by up to 5 degrees, into the upper 80s F for
foothills of higher elevations in W TX and most of Lea County into
northern Permian Basin, with lower to mid 90s F, highs near Rio
Grande persisting largely unchanged. Low to moderate (25% to 35%)
rain probabilities persist over SE NM plains into northern and
central Permian Basin Tuesday night before growing to at least
medium (35% to 45%) areawide during the day Wednesday, with a
medium to high (45% to 60%) probability for Marfa Plateau,
Guadalupes, and surrounding foothills. Progression of the cold
front southeast and widespread cloud and precipitation chances as
forcing for ascent increases as a result across the area drop
highs down into the upper 70s F to lower 80s F usual cooler spots
of SE NM plains, Permian Basin and higher elevations, mid to upper
80s F replacing locations seeing lower to mid 90s F previous
days, and lower to mid 90s F replacing most places seeing mid to
upper 90s F previous days, with highs along Rio Grande and Big
Bend once again persisting largely unchanged. After little to no
rainfall, forecast accumulations reach a few tenths of an inch
across SE NM plains, northern and central Permian Basin, and
higher elevations, with a moderate probability of 0.25" to 0.50"
over much of the region by Wednesday. Lows remain in the 60s and
70s F and will not be in as much of a hurry to cool off as we
approach the end of August.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

VFR conditions will continue across area terminals through the
period. Isolated afternoon SHRA/TSRA will mainly develop over
southern portions of the forecast area today, although an isolated
cell or two could develop over the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos
region. Convective potential remains too low to include mention in
the local terminal forecasts. Winds will be light and variable
early this morning before becoming northeasterly to easterly at
5-10 knots over much of the region late this morning into this
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               94  69  94  68 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 93  69  93  68 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                   94  72  95  72 /  30  20  10  10
Fort Stockton            92  69  93  69 /  20  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           84  66  85  66 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                    91  66  92  65 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                    84  59  85  57 /  30   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     93  70  94  70 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   91  69  93  69 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                     93  69  94  69 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...21