011
FXUS64 KMAF 052310
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
610 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 600 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

- Widespread highs in the triple digits are forecast through the
  end of the week. Drink plenty of water and take breaks in the
  shade!

- Isolated showers/thunderstorms expected this afternoon
  in/around the Davis Mountains (10-20%).

- Rain chances are next to nil for the rest of the week. Low
  (10-25%) chances return in our western counties and in the
  higher terrain by the weekend through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

The ridge continues to shift eastward over our area today, and has
also begun to strengthen. As a result, the heatwave persists across
Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. Most locations can expect to
top out over 100 today, with mid-to-upper 90s expected in the
typical cool spots. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the
Guadalupe Mountains, Davis Mountains, Brewster County, and portions
of Presidio County until this evening. A few isolated showers and
storms remain possible in/near the Davis Mountains despite
increasing subsidence from the ridge (10-20%). A surface trough
also extends down into Southeast New Mexico. However, here greater
subsidence should preclude any shower/thunderstorm development
(Convective-allowing models tend to agree with this conclusion).
Lows tonight drop generally into the 70s, with upper 60s in the
mountains.

Tomorrow will be similar to today as far as the heat goes, and
yet another Heat Advisory has been issued for the
afternoon/evening. The two main differences between today and
tomorrow are the Heat Advisory has been expanded to include
Culberson and Eddy Counties (they will be closer to the ridge
center), and PoPs are nil everywhere. This pattern will continue
through the first part of the Long Term.

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Highs in the upper 90s and over 100 continue through the end of the
week. Additional Heat Advisories may be necessary at least for
Thursday and Friday, but we will have to evaluate the need for them
on a day-by-day basis. By the weekend, the ridge broadens and begins
to weaken, which translates to closer to normal temperatures (albeit
still a couple of degrees above average) by the end of the weekend
and beginning of next week. As mentioned previously, rain chances
will be near-zero until the ridge starts to weaken this weekend. By
that time and into early next week, shower/thunderstorm chances
(generally 10-25%) start to reappear in our western counties and in
the higher terrain.

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

VFR conditions and southeasterly to southerly winds are expected
through the period. Wind gusts up to 25 kts will be persistent
until early this evening especially at MAF and FST terminals.
However, wind gusts will decrease after sunset. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are also ongoing mainly near the Davis
Mountains. No impacts are anticipated for all terminals as these
storms are already beginning to dissipate with no further
thunderstorm development to occur.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73 102  72 101 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 72 106  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   74 101  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            73 101  71 100 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           70  97  68  93 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    71 101  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    61  97  60  93 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     74 101  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   74 100  72  99 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     73 102  72 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Central
     Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-
     Davis Mountains Foothills-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000
     Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Lower Brewster County-
     Marfa Plateau.

     Heat Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
     Wednesday for Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos
     Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern
     Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for Eddy County
     Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...11