582
FXUS64 KMAF 030845
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
345 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 345 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

- A Flood Watch is in effect through this afternoon for West Texas
  and Southeast New Mexico. The best rain chances remain in the
  Davis Mountains and vicinity. Rain chances decrease through the
  weekend into next week.

- Temperatures gradually warm to around normal Saturday, decrease
  a few degrees Sunday, then wamr back to normal by midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Rainy with a continued risk for flash flooding, but drier and warmer
weather is on the way. Early this morning, IR and radar imagery
again shows scattered showers/storms drifting over the area, albeit
more from the south to the north as opposed to southeast to
northwest in previous nights. Deterministic and ensemble models
depict the mid to upper tropospheric Pacific Coast trough and
southeastern US air pattern holding today before beginning to
decrease on Friday. This will allowing southerly humid winds aloft
to continue funneling in anomalously high moisture and disturbances
aloft aiding mid to upper ascent. 1.83" PWATs on KMAF sounding and
satellite derived PWAT up to 2.03" over Lower Trans Pecos and Davis
Mountains were seen this evening, as well as nearly saturated
profiles into the upper troposphere with southeast winds from the
surface to mid troposphere, indicating potential for heavy rain
through warm rain processes remain a possibility amidst deep humid
flow. Ensembles and NAEFS ensembles show PWATs 1.40" to 1.60" range
through today and 1.75 to 2.00 standard deviations above
climatological averages, respectively, providing additional evidence
that the humid tropical air mass over the area that has been present
since this weekend will be slow to move out of the area. A flash
Flood Watch is in effect for the forecast area into 00Z today as a
result of saturated soils nearly everywhere from frequent wetting
rains since last week. Near the surface, WPC Surface Analysis
depicts development of lee troughing from the lee of the northern
Rockies to the central Rockies building south into the lee of higher
terrain from central NM into southeast NM, as well as leeward of
higher terrain across W TX this afternoon into tomorrow. This lee
troughing will maintain humid upslope flow north and east of
Guadalupes, Davis Mountains, and Lower Trans Pecos, while winds
shift to more southerly to southwesterly southwest of there. As a
result, dew point temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s F, and
initially dew point temperatures in the lower to mid 60s F for
higher elevations prevail today. With still abundant low cloud cover
limiting diurnal heating and evaporational cooling from rain in
showers/storms limiting warming of surface layer, highs today remain
below average. Heights/thicknesses aloft will be building, so high
temperatures will still be slightly warmer than yesterday. However,
we can still expect the lower to mid 80s, mid to upper 70s higher
elevations, northern Lea County and parts of the Permian Basin, and
mid to upper 80s Upper Trans Pecos and Rio Grande basins, with lower
to mid 90s from Presidio Valley into Big Bend. PoPs again increase
from low to medium this morning into medium to high range by the
afternoon into the evening, with highest PoPs over Marfa Plateau,
southern Culberson County, and then SE NM plains into Upper Trans
Pecos and southern Rio Grande basins. With drier air working into
the area as heights/thicknesses build and winds become less
easterly, PoPs will decrease more quickly in the evening as a result
as well. Tonight, PoPs decrease to near zero except for southern and
easternmost parts of the forecast area, with cloud cover scattering
out and lifting except for easternmost Permian Basin. Dew point
temperatures will remain elevated, so radiational cooling will
remain limited while lows again fall into the mid 60s to lower 70s.

4th of July this year marks the start of the much talked about
warming and drying trend models have been picking up since early
this week. PoPs will increase to low to medium from eastern Permian
Basin into Stockton Plateau, Marfa Plateau, and Big Bend, with
highest PoPs in Big Bend. However, PoPs will be below 15% elsewhere
as drier air moves into the area. Dew point temperatures over the
western higher terrain of W TX into SE NM plains will fall into the
mid 50s F to lower 60s F through the afternoon into the evening.
With less cloud cover however, highs will once again rise into the
mid 80s to lower 90s F, mid to upper 90s along the Rio Grande from
Presidio Valley into Big Bend. These high temperatures have not been
seen for a few days now, and with recent wetting rains it may
continue to feel humid despite the drying trend.

NBM grids show rainfall through Friday evening ranging from a few
hundredths of an inch to 0.50" to 0.75". This will be lower than
previous days and less widespread, but nonetheless with all the rain
that has fallen since last week, it will not take much for flash
flooding to occur where heavier and/or more persistent
showers/storms develop. Lowest percentile ensembles show at least a
few hundredths to a tenth of an inch over most of the area, medium
to high probability of 0.25" areawide, medium probability of 0.50"
to 0.75" from southern Culberson County and Marfa Plateau into Big
Bend and easternmost Permian Basin, and low to medium probability of
1.00" to 1.50" over easternmost Permian Basin. Spreads will also be
lower and in the 0.25" to 0.75" range, lower than previous days and
showing an end to extremely heavy convective rains for a while is in
sight. For more on details regarding return to warmer and drier
weather more typical of early July to the area, see the long term
discussion below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Friday night, the upper trough exits the region east, and a ridge
begins developing over western Chihuahua.  The ridge will gradually
build north through the weekend, to southwest New Mexico by Sunday
morning.  Meanwhile, an inverted trough will be pushing west through
the Gulf toward the Texas coast.  The arrival of the ridge Friday
night/Saturday will bring an end to the current wet spell, but the
NBM is still insistent on ramping rain chances back up on Sunday,
possibly due to the wetter ECMWF/CMC, both of which develop
convection on the west side of the inverted trough Saturday night,
pushing it into the CWA Sunday.  NAEFS ensembles continue to
advertise PWATS at a minimum of 2 std devs through 12Z Saturday, and
at least 1.2 through Sunday, so locally heavy rainfall potential
remains.  Current radar bias is averaging over 2.75 (still in
tropical mode!), and although models gradually decrease PWATs
through the weekend, they`ll remain high enough for tropical
downpours to continue.  Chances decrease Monday through Wednesday,
w/best chances remaining out west due the faux monsoon.

W/the arrival of the ridge, thicknesses/temperatures will continue
to increase through Saturday, which continues to be the warmest day
this forecast.  Even so, that means highs only right around normal
for early July.  Highs will dip 3-4 F Sunday if the aforementioned
convection pans out, then gradually increase through Wednesday,
rounding out the forecast right around normal.  Unfortunately, a
recurring LLJ each night will continue to keep overnight lows
uncomfortably warm.  These will peak Sunday morning at a little less
than 5 F above normal.

NBM wind speeds throughout the extended are too low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

MVFR or below CIGs over Upper Trans Pecos from beginning of TAF
period into 09Z, with MVFR or lower CIGs elsewhere from start of
TAF period. VFR VIS except for MVFR VIS or lower in showers/storms
and mist or fog. Expected impacts from storms at terminals are
heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds. CIGs lift to VFR from MVFR
from west to east from 18Z-00Z except for easternmost Permian
Basin, where there is medium confidence CIGs remain MVFR or lower.
Winds light and below 15 knots for terminals throughout the
period outside of storms, with winds veering more to the south
14Z-20Z and remaining southeasterly into end of period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               84  70  91  72 /  60  40  30  10
Carlsbad                 81  68  92  69 /  70  30  10   0
Dryden                   83  72  91  72 /  70  40  50  10
Fort Stockton            84  70  91  71 /  70  20  40  10
Guadalupe Pass           76  65  85  68 /  70  40  10   0
Hobbs                    81  68  91  68 /  70  30  10   0
Marfa                    78  65  83  63 /  90  40  40  10
Midland Intl Airport     83  71  92  72 /  60  30  20  10
Odessa                   82  70  91  72 /  50  20  20  10
Wink                     84  70  92  70 /  60  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through this evening for Andrews-Borden-Central
     Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern
     Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above
     7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-
     Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-
     Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Flood Watch through this afternoon for Central Lea-Eddy County
     Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea-
     Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....
AVIATION...94