103
FXUS64 KMAF 060743
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
243 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 233 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

- Patchy fog possible this morning, especially for portions of
  southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin.

- Low to medium rain chances return Sunday afternoon (10-30% for
  most locations, with highest chances in the Davis Mountains).

- Warmer and drier mid to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Current radar imagery has a decaying MCS entering portions of the
northern Permian Basin. Showers should last until 4 AM at the latest
for these areas. Synoptically, satellite imagery depicts upper-level
high pressure over northwestern Mexico extending into central New
Mexico, while a shortwave trough is prevalent across the northern
Texas Panhandle. Patchy fog is expected once again over portions of
the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico lasting through 10 AM
CT/9 AM MT this morning. Visibilities are expected to prevail from 2-
5 miles with brief reduced visibilities down to a 1/2 mile for some
spots.

Today, low to medium (10-40%) rain chances return for a lot of
locations across the region due to an inverted trough approaching
from the east. The far eastern Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and
Davis Mountains/Big Bend region are going to have the greatest
chance of receiving rainfall. Another muggy day looks in store as
well especially for the eastern half of the forecast area as
easterly to southeasterly surface winds bring in rich Gulf moisture.
Dew point temperatures are forecasted to reach the mid 60s to lower
70s. With these higher than normal dew points, high temperatures are
going to be cooler than yesterday reaching the mid 80s to lower 90s
for most. Areas along the Presidio and Rio Grande valleys are
expected to reach the upper 90s to lower 100s. One other note to
consider is that high resolution guidance has another MCS developing
across similar areas where it may move into portions of the
northwestern Permian around and just after midnight. Again, high
resolution guidance is inconsistent on how far south the MCS will
go, therefore, no changes were made to increase PoPs given
uncertainty.

Monday, more low to medium (15-40%) isolated rain chances and near
to slightly below temperatures continue as weak inverted troughing
persists. Forecast soundings depict "inverted-V" profiles signaling
a thunderstorm wind gust threat for the strongest storms.
Precipitable Water (PWAT) values remain above the 90th percentile
per SPC Sounding Climatology indicating heavy rainfall to occur.
Greatest chances for rain/storms looks to stay in the higher terrain
and eastern Permian Basin. More drier weather is in store heading
into the long term.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Tuesday, upper-level ridging strengthens becoming the dominant
feature lasting through the rest of next week. Cluster analysis
indicates the upper high pressure system staying off to the west
retaining northeasterly flow aloft. This will allow temperatures to
be near to slightly above normal across the region for this time of
year. Temperatures are forecasted to slightly climb near the upper
90s to triple digits by late next week. Daily afternoon low (<
30%) storm chances in the Davis Mountains exists through the
period. Otherwise, dry conditions are anticipated elsewhere.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Mostly VFR conditions are expected with brief patchy fog possible
at MAF near sunrise. TS will develop in the afternoon and though
too widely scattered to place in the TAFs at this time, could be a
limited factor in local airport operations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               92  72  91  71 /  10   0  20   0
Carlsbad                 93  71  92  71 /  10  20  20  10
Dryden                   92  73  92  73 /  20  10  20   0
Fort Stockton            94  71  93  71 /  20   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           86  67  86  68 /  20  10  30   0
Hobbs                    92  69  90  69 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                    88  64  87  63 /  30   0  40   0
Midland Intl Airport     93  72  92  72 /  10   0  10   0
Odessa                   92  71  91  71 /  10   0  10   0
Wink                     93  71  92  71 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...10