740
FXUS64 KMAF 191138
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
638 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 635 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today
  to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Southeast New Mexico
  and most of West Texas.

- A High Wind Warning is in effect from 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ this
  afternoon to midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ this evening for the
  Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. A Wind Advisory is in effect
  from 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ this afternoon to midnight CDT /11 PM
  MDT/ this evening for the Davis and Chinati Mountains, Davis
  Mountain Foothills, Marfa Plateau, and Culberson and Eddy County
  Plains.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening,
  mainly across the Permian Basin, Western Low Rolling Plains,
  Stockton Plateau, and lower Trans Pecos. The main threats will
  be large hail and damaging winds, but an isolated tornado can`t
  be ruled out.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Most thunderstorm activity has stayed east of our area, though virga
resulted in some potent downburst winds yesterday evening and within
the past couple of hours. Winds (and lingering dust) will continue
to diminish over the next couple of hours, though lows this morning
will stay fairly warm under cloudy skies. Nevertheless, gusty winds
will return this afternoon as the much-discussed upper-level system
finally begins to move into our area. It looks like the
strongest/gustiest winds will occur in the mountains and in the
surrounding plains, as these areas will be more aligned with the jet
streak associated with this system. A Wind Advisory has been issued
for these locations (along with a High Wind Warning for the
Guadalupes) from this evening until just after midnight. Blowing
dust may once again develop in conjunction with these winds, though
will hold off on a advisory for now since gusts should be a bit
lighter than yesterday. Meanwhile, a dryline still looks to sharpen
up over the Central Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos this
afternoon, and a triple point will likewise develop over roughly
this same area. These features will lead to the development of
thunderstorms by the evening. The environment over the
Central/Eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos will favor these
storms becoming severe. 0-6 km bulk shear up to 60-70 knots, MUCAPE
of 1000-1500 J/kg (up to 2000 J/kg for southeasternmost counties),
and 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7-9 C/km will allow for the
development of large hail and damaging winds for these locations.
Though these will be the primary threats, favorably curved
hodographs within the warm sector (south of the approaching front)
and 0-1 km SRH values up to 150-300 m2/s2 may allow for a tornado or
two to occur. Right now, it looks like the best chance of a spin-up
would be in the Lower Trans-Pecos, though this also depends on where
exactly the triple point sets up this afternoon and how far south
the front is when storms become established (storms undercut by the
front would be more apt to become elevated, and thus favor a large
hail threat and a much lower wind/tornado threat).

In any case, after midnight storms move off to the east of our area
and the cold front pushes through the rest of the region. Behind it
will come calmer winds, clearer skies, and more seasonable
temperatures (highs in the 70s and low 80s) for Easter Sunday!
Meanwhile highs today will generally be in 70s for northernmost
locations (north of where the triple point is expected to set up)
and in the mountains, with highs in the 80s for the rest of the area.

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Monday, West Texas and Southeast New Mexico will be under dry, zonal
flow aloft, which will begin transitioning to zonal during the
afternoon as troughing develops out in the Pacific.  Thicknesses
will continue increasing under sunny skies, pushing afternoon
temperatures to around 3-4 F above normal.  Under this pattern,
similar highs can be expected through the rest of the extended.

Of a more significant note in the extended is the redevelopment of
the LLJ.  Monday night, models are still on track to develop a 40+kt
LLJ, advecting rich Gulf moisture up the Pecos River Valley.  By 12Z
Tuesday, the 50 degree isodrosotherm could be as far west as
Presidio, with 60+ dewpoints in the lower Trans Pecos.  By Tuesday
morning, the dryline is forecast to be backed up to our western
border, after which it will begin mixing east.  Convection is
forecast to develop along and east of this feature during the
afternoon and overnight.  A similar LLJ is forecast to redevelop
Tuesday night, and this may keep the convection going into the
overnight hours.  Wednesday, southwest flow aloft continues as the
Pacific trough makes landfall on the west coast.  Virtually the same
process--LLJ, dryline, convection--plays out Wednesday as on
Tuesday.

Thursday, the Pacific trough moves through West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico, and convection will be possible once again.  Although
severe convection cannot be ruled out Tuesday and Wednesday, deep-
layer bulk shear will be stronger Thursday w/the arrival of the
trough.

Friday, a weak front will drop in in the wake of the exiting trough,
but will only shave a degree or two off highs.  Convection will be
possible Friday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

VFR conditions generally prevail. A front intruding on northern
parts of the area will cause winds to shift northerly/northwesterly
at most sites this morning. By this afternoon the front will briefly
retreat north. Gusty southwesterly/southerly winds then develop at
all sites. Have mention BLDU for CNM and PEQ (where winds will be
strongest), but confidence in coverage/intensity is low, so kept
them at VFR for now (though deterioration to MVFR is certainly
possible). The front will push back through later this
evening/tonight, which will cause winds to once again shift
northwesterly. Thunderstorms may develop in the vicinity of MAF and
FST tonight, but left this out of the TAF product for now due to low
confidence in storm coverage.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Today, with the trough still to the west, critical relative
humidity, for the most part single-digit, will extend from Southeast
New Mexico to the Presidio Valley and beyond.  20-ft winds will
remain elevated along and west of the Pecos.  These will combine to
yeild widespread RFTI of 4+ most areas along and west of the Pecos,
with a large area of 7+.  Given ERCs of 50th percentile or better,
we`ll upgrade the watch to a warning.

Sunday, the trough passes to the east, taking increased 20-ft winds
with it.  Convection is anticipated w/the trough, and much fire wx
after today will depend on how much of what falls where between now
and then.  Attm, it looks like elevtaed fire wx conditions will be
possible each day out west of the dryline, as would be expected.
Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               80  48  75  49 /  40  80   0   0
Carlsbad                 78  43  77  46 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                   89  54  86  53 /  20  40   0   0
Fort Stockton            89  50  78  52 /  10  30   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           68  42  67  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    76  40  74  45 /  10  40   0   0
Marfa                    79  42  74  43 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     83  48  77  51 /  20  70   0   0
Odessa                   82  48  77  51 /  20  60   0   0
Wink                     85  47  78  48 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9
     PM MDT/ this evening for Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-
     Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
     Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Guadalupe Mountains Above
     7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Lower
     Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves
     County Plains-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ this afternoon to
     midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight for Guadalupe Mountains
     Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight CDT tonight
     for Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
     Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento
     Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM MDT this evening
     for Eddy County Plains.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...13