792
FXUS64 KMAF 101138
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
538 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 535 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

- Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 5 AM MST /6 AM
  CST/ Friday for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico

- High Wind Warning in effect from 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this
  evening to 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ Friday for Guadalupe Pass

- Dry and warmer conditions are expected beginning Saturday, with
  above average temperatures returning by the middle of next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 201 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

A reinforcing surge of cold air is moving through southeastern
New Mexico and West Texas early this morning. The upper level
trough driving the front through the area is in the Texas
Panhandle and quickly moving southeast, pushing moisture off to
our east and bringing wintry precipitation chances to an end. A
few very light flurries are possible but no accumulations are
expected. Mostly cloudy skies this morning clear out today and
will help temperatures warm into the lower to mid 40s for most
locations, up from temps in the lower 20s to start the day.

Of course the cold front today will keep cold lows in the 20s
again tonight so keep the winter coats close by. Another trough
digging into the northern Rockies Saturday causes surface low
pressure to form in the Great Plains backing winds around from a
more southwesterly direction. Warm air advection and a slight
downsloping effect will help highs reach up into the 50s tomorrow,
the highest we have seen in several days.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 201 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Highs and lows remain up to 5 degrees below average from Saturday
night through Wednesday night as the troughing pattern continues
to hold, but a warming trend is in store after that as
deterministic and ensemble models depict heights and thicknesses
again developing a more zonal to weak ridging pattern aloft, with
highs and lows rising back to near to above average. Saturday
night has lows near freezing to teens in basins of Culberson
County and Davis Mountain foothills as westerly downsloping winds
keep temperatures warmer due to downslope adiabatic compressional
warming. Sunday, winds shift back to northerly with highs in the
40s, 50s Rio Grande basins into Terrell County and southern
Permian Basin, and lower to mid 60s in the Big Bend. Sunday night,
below freezing temperatures area wide are forecast, ranging from
the teens in usual cooler spots in basins of Culberson County,
peaks of Davis Mountains, and northern Lea County, mid to upper
20s, and near freezing in the Rio Grande basins. By Monday, winds
begin to veer more southerly and temperatures rise into the mid
40s to mid 50s for the area, with Monday night featuring lows
closer to near freezing in Rio Grande basins and Terrell County
and upper teens to mid 20s elsewhere. Winds continue to veer
further to southeasterly Tuesday with these winds advecting in
warmer air and resulting in highs from the mid 40s to mid 50s once
again, but with 40s limited to higher elevations and SE NM
plains, and lower 60s along portions of the Rio Grande. Tuesday
night continues the warming trend with near freezing lows building
back north and below freezing lows elsewhere. Wednesday is
forecast to be similar to Tuesday but warmer by a couple degrees
everywhere. Wednesday night will be the last below average night
in the long term as lows from mid 20s to lower 30s, and mid to
upper 30s southernmost regions prevail.

Troughing moves through next week with the base of the trough
expected to skirt parts of the CWA and lead to gusty winds that
may reach wind advisory criteria over the Guadalupes. A cold front
associated with this trough will move through but temperatures
will quickly warm back up due to weak ridging and quasi-zonal
flow. Thursday, highs rise back into the mid 50s to lower 60s as
winds are forecast to veer even more southerly if not
southwesterly at times, and Thursday night lows are forecast to
range from mid 30s to mid 40s, above freezing everywhere. By next
Friday, mid 60s to lower 70s for highs and mid 30s to mid 40s for
lows return with gusty southwesterly downsloping winds expected to
maintain warmer than average temperatures. With PoPs near zero
into the end of the period but cloud cover forecast to increase
after Tuesday, the settling in of warm, dry winter weather but
with scattered to widespread clouds will become increasingly
apparent by the middle into the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

MVFR CIGs are affecting most of the terminals this morning. There
are some breaks and some sites may temporarily get to VFR but
permanent VFR conditions are not expected until closer to 18Z.
Breezy north winds become southwesterly after 00Z.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               43  23  55  28 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 40  21  55  26 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   47  24  56  32 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            42  24  59  28 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           34  23  42  27 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    39  21  52  26 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    37  15  49  23 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     42  24  54  28 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   42  25  54  29 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     44  23  57  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ early this morning
     for Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...10