404
FXUS64 KMAF 010647
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
147 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

As much as I`d like to be talking about an exciting pattern change
coming, we`ll see more of the same weather we`ve seen to start the
week. The upper ridge remains in control across the southern Plains
today, but nudges eastward some for Tuesday. With this, high
temperatures this afternoon will be nearly identical to yesterday`s.
A more eastward ridge center allows southwesterly flow to strengthen
the low level thermal ridge some, ticking high temperatures up a few
degrees for Tuesday. A few spots may need a Heat Advisory for
Tuesday, notably the Big Bend and western Low Rolling Plains.
Typical summertime diurnally driven storms continue across the
Davis/Guadalupe Mountains and adjacent plains both today and
tomorrow.

-Munyan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

The previously advertised and long awaited pattern change remains on
track as we head through the end of the week into the weekend. The
ever present southern CONUS ridge begins to slowly weaken across the
southern Great Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. The effects of
this change won`t be immediately felt as Wednesday and Thursday
remain hot in the 90s and 100s. Afternoon diurnal convection
continues across the western elevations, though should be more
widespread as large-scale subsidence weakens. By Friday and the
weekend, heights decrease as weak troughing replaces the ridge
across the southern Great Plains. These decreased heights drop
temperatures out of the upper 90s and low 100s into the lower 90s
for many. While this remains warm, these temperatures are below
normal for early July and offer some relief. With the arrival of the
weak troughing, disturbances may sink southeast far enough to aid in
the development of scattered thunderstorms across even the lower
elevations of the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos. Further aiding in
more widespread rainfall potential will be a large fetch of mid-
level moisture being channeled northward between the southwestern
and southeastern U.S. ridge centers. Rain chances are lowest across
the lower elevations but still present, while the higher elevations
and adjacent areas are most likely to experience appreciable rains.
Regardless, a slightly cooler and wetter pattern is a welcomed sight
to begin our July.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

VFR continues throughout the period. The LLJ helps fuel gusty
southeasterly winds both throughout the overnight/morning and into
the afternoon. Winds will be the weakest around 12z/sunrise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              101  76 105  76 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                101  76 103  77 /  10  10  10  20
Dryden                   99  74 102  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton           100  74 103  76 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           92  72  94  73 /  10  10  10  30
Hobbs                    98  72 102  73 /   0  10   0  10
Marfa                    93  64  96  66 /  10  10  10  20
Midland Intl Airport    100  75 103  76 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   98  76 102  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                    103  77 105  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...16