253
FXUS64 KMAF 280828
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
328 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 328 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

- Showers and storms chances remain low (10-30%) this afternoon,
  with the best chances over the Davis Mountains and into the Big
  Bend.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances increase considerably over much
  of our region Friday through the Labor Day Weekend. There will
  be potential for heavy rainfall and an associated risk of flash
  flooding over portions of our area through the weekend.

- Much cooler temperatures are expected this weekend into early
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

An upper-level ridge is expected to center itself near northern
Sonora/Chihuahua. At the surface, an area of low pressure resides
near the Texas Panhandle, with an associated frontal boundary
stretching southeastward toward eastern Texas. The low will help
draw a cold front into our region down from the Panhandle late this
evening and into tonight. Given the proximity of the upper ridge to
our region, and the development of a thermal ridge ahead of the cold
front, highs today will run warmer relative to the last couple of
days. Afternoon temperatures are forecast to heat into the mid to
upper 90s for most, while those near and along the Rio Grande and
the development of a thermal ridge ahead of the cold front,and Pecos
River valleys, as well as a few spots within the Permian Basin reach
beyond the century mark. With the cold front nosing into our
northern counties tonight, temperatures behind the front cool into
the 60s. Lows in the 70s are forecast for much of the region tonight.
Friday, the upper ridge shifts westward and geopotential heights
drop just a touch. The cold front looks to become stationary
somewhere near the Pecos River valley. Highs over the Permian Basin
are forecast to range within the 90s. Ahead of the front, areas near
and along the river valleys will top out in the triple digits (upper
80s in the mountains).

Rain chances this afternoon and tonight range from 10%-30%. This
afternoon, the best odds will lie in and around the Davis Mountains,
driven by upslope flow and daytime heating. This evening, the best
rain chances shift toward the Permian Basin, associated with the
approaching front. Rain chances increase areawide Friday as the cold
front stalls within our region, ranging between 10-40% during the
afternoon (highest in the mountains).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

The long term period continues to trend cooler and wetter compared
to the last several days. A front is expected to stall somewhere
near the Pecos River valley Friday and hover within our region
through much of the Labor Day weekend. This feature, along with a
series of shortwaves embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft
raises flash flooding concerns this weekend. Ensemble guidance
continues to show PWAT values averaging between 1-2" over our region
during this time frame, ushered in by moist, easterly flow in the
lower levels. As such, widespread shower/storm activity looks to be
in store over the weekend, with the best chances lying in over the
Permian Basin and portions of the Trans Pecos Saturday night. The
main threat we will be monitoring for is locally heavy rainfall
resulting in flash flooding. Otherwise, should a storm or two become
strong, gusty winds may be another hazard. The potential for
isolated to scattered showers and storms remains in the forecast for
much of the region through the remainder of the long term period.

Aside from increased rain chances, temperatures in the extended
forecast trend downward. Many will still heat into the 90s Saturday
afternoon, though our northern counties warm into the upper 80s
behind the cold front. Rain cooled air, the proximity of the cooler
air mass associated with the front, and ample moisture will help
keep afternoon highs below normal Sunday through Wednesday. Highs
will generally range within the 70s over the higher terrain, while
80s look to be more commonplace for most everyone else. Lows are
forecast to dip into the 60s/70s each night. Be sure to check in
often for updates as this set up takes shape!


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

VFR prevails through the period with southerly winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               99  72  96  71 /  10  20  20  30
Carlsbad                 98  73  98  71 /  10  10  30  40
Dryden                  100  75 101  75 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton            98  73  99  72 /  10  10  20  20
Guadalupe Pass           88  70  89  67 /  20  10  40  30
Hobbs                    96  69  95  67 /  10  20  30  50
Marfa                    88  63  90  63 /  30  10  40  20
Midland Intl Airport     99  74  97  72 /  10  20  20  30
Odessa                   98  74  97  72 /  10  20  20  30
Wink                     99  73  98  72 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...29