723
FXUS64 KMAF 061134
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
534 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 531 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

- Above normal temperatures will persist through Saturday.

- A strong cold front is expected to bring increased northeasterly
  winds and colder temperatures to the area late this weekend.
  High winds may be possible through mountain gap areas such as
  Guadalupe Pass and near Carlsbad Caverns National Park behind
  the front Saturday night into Sunday.

- A period of freezing temperatures in the mid 20s to lower 30s may
  impact portions of southeast New Mexico and west Texas Sunday
  night into early Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 237 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

A weak cold front continues to edge into portions of the southeast
New Mexico plains and the Permian Basin early this morning. Light
northeasterly winds are being observed with only slightly cooler
temperatures noted behind this boundary. This feature should move
into the Eddy County NM plains and into the southern Permian
Basin early this morning but will quickly become diffuse as
surface lee troughing becomes re-established over eastern New
Mexico and west Texas later this morning and this afternoon. Winds
will shift southwesterly along the surface trough axis today with
associated low level thermal ridging also leading to another day
of much above normal temperatures. Highs will reach into the 80s
again over the majority of the forecast area with a few locations
along the Trans Pecos topping out near 90 degrees. Highs along the
Rio Grande may also make it into the lower to mid 90s this
afternoon. The record high temperature at Midland for today
(November 6th) is 90 degrees, which was set in 2017. It appears
that we will fall short of that number by a few degrees today,
but we did get a little warmer than expected yesterday, tying the
record of 89.

Surface winds will veer westerly to northwesterly tonight ahead
of another weak cold front that will be pushing into the eastern
New Mexico plains and the Texas panhandle/South Plains. This
boundary will make it through most of our forecast area on Friday.
High temperatures will trend several degrees cooler than today
behind the front, but will still average about 5-8 degrees above
normal for early November. Highs are forecast to range in the mid
70s to the lower 80s behind the front and as warm as the upper 80s
to lower 90s over portions of the Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend
ahead of the boundary. Sunny skies and dry conditions will
otherwise continue.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

The upper air pattern will amplify across the CONUS this weekend,
especially Saturday night into Sunday as a longwave trough carves
across much of the eastern U.S. while ridging builds over the
western states. A vigorous shortwave trough diving from the
northern Plains to the Mississippi Valley region Saturday into
Saturday night will send a stronger cold front southward through
the Plains states during this time frame. The front should be
pushing into the Texas Panhandle by Saturday morning and perhaps
as far south as northern Lea County NM and the northern Permian
Basin by Saturday afternoon. Surface troughing ahead of the front
will extend southward across the rest of southeast New Mexico and
much of west Texas during the day Saturday, which will allow for
another day of above normal temperatures over much of our region.
Highs on Saturday afternoon should reach into the 80s for most
(except mid to upper 70s over our far northern zones and mountain
areas, while readings reach into the lower 90s along portions of
the Rio Grande).

Northeasterly winds should increase considerably across our area
on Saturday night as the cold front surges through the CWA. The
resultant pressure gradient will support a period of high winds
through mountain gaps (including Guadalupe Pass and near the
Carlsbad Caverns NP) Saturday night into Sunday. Highs on Sunday
will be much cooler behind this front, with highs now forecast to
only reach into the upper 50s to lower 60s over much of our
region, except upper 60s to lower 70s along the Lower Trans Pecos
and Big Bend. Surface high pressure will build southward into the
southern Plains Sunday night into Monday morning. Clear skies and
decreasing winds will support much colder temperatures late Sunday
night/early Monday morning, with a freeze looking increasingly
probable over much of southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, and
into parts of the Trans Pecos and southwest mountains. Lows are
currently forecast to range in the mid 20s to lower 30s over many
of these places early Monday morning, but will see how things
trend over the next few days. We may need to issue freeze products
for areas that have not yet had their first freeze next Sunday
night/Monday morning.

Surface high pressure should shift toward the Gulf Coast states
through Monday night. Surface lee troughing should once again take
shape over eastern New Mexico and west Texas Tuesday into Wednesday.
This pattern will result in a warming trend with highs looking to
warm back into the 70s to lower 80s over much of the area both
days. There is still no precipitation in sight through the middle
of next week as a very dry northwesterly flow pattern aloft
prevails through the extended forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. Light
winds early this morning will turn southwesterly up to 10-15
knots with a few gusts over 20 knots across much of the region
this afternoon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               84  51  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 87  50  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   88  54  90  52 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            90  57  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           78  52  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    83  50  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    85  45  79  42 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     85  53  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   84  53  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     87  48  79  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...21