625
FXUS64 KMAF 110735
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
135 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 135 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

- Above normal temperatures are expected Thursday through Saturday
  before a stronger cold front (briefly) brings much cooler
  temperatures on Sunday.

- Dry conditions persist through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 135 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Skies are mostly clear across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas
this morning. Post-frontal high pressure is currently propagating
eastward beyond our area, and as a result winds have shifted back to
a southerly/southwesterly direction. Meanwhile, dry northwesterly
flow aloft persists over the region. Despite the break from
unseasonably warm temperatures yesterday, the redevelopment of
return flow and increased atmospheric thickness allows highs to
bounce back into the upper 60s and low-to-mid 70s today. Meanwhile,
lows tonight tick back up into the upper 30s and low-to-mid 40s for
most locations. Friday morning, another front makes its way south
into our area. Guidance indicates this front will be weaker than
yesterday`s front, both in terms of windiness and its impact on
temperatures. Highs Friday will be nearly identical to Thursday`s
due to the generally diffuse nature of the front as it makes its way
across our region. Nevertheless, temperatures in the far northern
Permian Basin manage to drop about 3-5 degrees lower than today`s
(upper 60s, which is still about 10 degrees above seasonal norms).
Meanwhile, temperatures closer to the Rio Grande end up about 5
degrees warmer than today`s. Yet again, the Short Term period
remains dry, with no rain chances to be seen.

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 135 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Northwesterly flow aloft associated with ridging from the west and
southwesterly downsloping flow at the surface persists on Saturday.
These features will result in well-above normal highs, with
temperatures in the low-to-mid 70s for most. However, this will be
short-lived as a cold front pushes through the area late Saturday
night and into Sunday morning. As a result, afternoon highs on
Sunday struggle to reach 50 degrees across the Permian Basin and
higher terrain. Elsewhere, most locations see highs in the 50s
(except 60s in the lower terrain near/along the Rio Grande). The
spread in Sunday`s high temperatures amongst ensemble guidance has
decreased significantly, yielding higher confidence in the forecast.
Temperatures rebound early next week as westerly flow aloft and
southerly (Monday) to southwesterly (Tuesday) winds return to the
region once again. Expect warmer temperatures on Tuesday owing to
the downsloping component of the wind, with highs potentially
climbing back into the 70s. Guidance continues to suggest the
development of lee troughing early next week, potentially bringing
breezy conditions on Monday and Tuesday. At this time, above-normal
tempertures look to persist by the middle of next week due to quasi-
zonal flow aloft and westerly downsloping flow near the surface.
Precipitation chances remain nil throughout the extended.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

VFR conditions prevail. Light southerly to southwesterly winds
through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               71  40  69  36 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 72  43  72  37 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   73  44  79  43 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            76  47  72  40 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           62  43  64  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    71  42  70  34 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    68  36  72  32 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     70  42  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   69  43  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     73  39  71  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...13