874
FXUS64 KMAF 011725
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1225 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Winds shift from southeast behind a cold front moving south from
the TX Panhandle and South Plains into the CWA early this
morning into this evening, with gusty winds above 20 mph possible
in the Davis Mountains into the northern Guadalupe Mountains and
surrounding foothills into the central Permian Basin this
afternoon and evening in association with this frontal passage.
Highs behind the cold front will be cooler than yesterday`s, with
Midland-Odessa likely not making it into the low 90s, with
widespread 80s, 70s in higher elevations, and 90s and above
confined to closer to the Rio Grande as well as Reeves County
Plains and along Pecos River in the southern and eastern Permian
Basin. Tonight sees lows cooler than tonight with continued cold
air advection behind the cold front. NBM might be overdoing how
warm it could get for highs and lows, especially over northern
portions of the area and SE NM, so used 2:1 blend of NBM and NBM
25th percentile for today`s highs, and 1:2 blend of NBM and NBM
10th percentile for tonight`s lows. With efficient radiational
cooling, decreasing winds, and cold air advection behind the cold
front, tonight`s lows will be the lowest they have been in some
time, ranging from the mid to upper 40s over highest elevations of
the Marfa Plateau and northernmost Lea County in New Mexico, low
to mid 50s for most of SE NM plains and Permian Basin into
Stockton Plateau, and low 60s near the Rio Grande. The cooler
temperatures will continue Wednesday with 80s for most locations,
70s in higher elevations, and 90s and above again confined even
closer to the Rio Grande, with the Upper Trans Pecos and along the
Pecos River in southern Permian Basin only rising into the 80s.
However, a diurnal range of 25-35 degrees is likely today and
Wednesday as cold air advection during the day is balanced by
ample solar heating as dry air limits cloud cover, and mostly
clear to clear skies overnight along with dry air allow for
efficient radiational cooling. Additionally, deterministic and
ensemble models depict our CWA remaining to the east of ridging
over the western CONUS, with lack of southerly return flow paired
with 1000-500 mb thicknesses above 570 decameters and 500 mb
heights above 580 decameters keeping temperatures only a few
degrees above normal for this time of year during the day and
night. No measurable rain chances are expected with today`s cold
front nor in the wake of the front, as we are not even expecting
much in the way of increased cloud cover with today`s front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Overall, the forecast remains relatively quiescent through the
extended. The upper jet is progged to remain focused across the
northern tier of the CONUS, effectively keeping any lows/storm
systems well to our north, allowing the seemingly ever-present ridge
to continue its expansion, maintaining high pressure and
subsidence over Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. Temperatures
will remain relatively consistent, with highs each day in the 80s
and lower 90s and overnight lows in the 50s and 60s, with upper
40s possible in localized spots across the Davis Mountains and
Marfa Plateau. The one (and only) fly in the ointment in the
extended is the potential for a disturbance off the Gulf to move
westward into Texas in the Thursday-Friday time frame, coincident
with the arrival of a cold front extending from a low translating
from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Deterministic guidance
has started to pick up on this feature, with increased confidence
due to reflection in cluster analyses and the grand ensemble. That
said, if this scenario pans out, increased midlevel moisture
would be a given, especially over eastern and southeastern areas,
though most (if not all) of any associated precipitation would
remain to the east. Thus, the forecast remains dry and relatively
mild, with weak cold fronts not expected to have much impact aside
from intermittent wind shifts and subtle decreases in
temperatures, which will largely remain above normal as we
progress through the first week of October.

JP

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

A cold front moved through the region this morning, bringing a
breezy northeast wind to all TAF sites. Winds weaken tonight
becoming easterly and then become southerly by late tomorrow
morning. VFR conditions continue otherwise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               55  87  61  91 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 55  87  58  91 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   62  89  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            56  88  62  92 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           54  79  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    53  84  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    50  83  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     56  86  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   56  86  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     57  88  60  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....84
AVIATION...91