408
FXUS64 KMAF 181106
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
606 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 605 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

- Near normal temperatures early this week, becoming slightly
  below normal by the middle of week, and continuing into next
  weekend.

- There is a low to medium (20-50%) chance of thunderstorms each
  afternoon and evening through the middle of the week for much of
  the region. There is an even higher (50-70%) chance of
  thunderstorms over the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains during this
  time.

- Afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances lessen by the end of
  this week into next weekend. There is a low to medium (20-50%)
  chance of thunderstorms for the Davis Mountains, Permian Basin,
  and Lower Trans Pecos each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

IR satellite imagery and radar early this morning depict warming
cloud tops and dissipating showers over SE NM plains as high
pressure over Stockton Plateau again imparts a clockwise spin to
scattered to broken cloud cover over the area. Amidst continued
broken cloud cover and near surface south/southeast winds, highs
again rise in the to mid to upper 90s, mid to upper 80s higher
elevations, and upper 90s to triple digits along the Rio Grande,
with 105+ F readings for the Big Bend. Daytime heating of elevated
terrain, upslope flow near lee troughing from E NM into W TX, and
remnant outflow boundaries and terrain induced circulations
resulting in medium (35% to 50%) probability of showers/storms this
afternoon and evening over Marfa Plateau into Culberson County and
Eddy County Plains, with highest probability of rain (50% to 65%)
over Davis Mountains and Guadalupes. Moderate (25% to 35%)
probability of showers/storms exists from Presidio Valley into
Stockton Plateau and Upper Trans Pecos, Lea County, and northern
Permian Basin as well. Low (15% to 25%) probability of
showers/storms for most of Permian Basin into western Terrell County
are again present, but CAMs are not showing widespread coverage and
uncertainty remains in timing, so higher rain chances are forecast
to stay out west. Lows tonight cool a few degrees from last night as
south/southeast winds in the LLJ that transport warm air into the
area will not be as strong.

Tomorrow, WPC surface analysis depicts a cold front moving into the
area, with southeast winds shifting to northeasterly and highs
cooling a few degrees compared to today, translating to mid to upper
90s replaced by lower to mid 90s, reduced occurrence of highs in the
triple digits over the Big Bend, and increased occurrence of highs
staying in the 80s over foothills of western terrain. A higher
probability of rain exists over the Permian Basin into Terrell
County Tuesday than on Monday. Additionally, forecast grids indicate
a low to moderate (25% to 35%) probability of rain over northern
Permian Basin into eastern Lea County late Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning, with CAMs depicting storms drifting northeast to
southeast as near surface forcing for ascent occurs along and behind
the weak backdoor cold front that moves in from the Central Great
Plains to the north.Shower/storm chances and accumulations are
dependent on factors such as timing of the front clearing the area,
amount additional forcing provided by lee troughing, storm
interactions, and cloud cover. Currently, forecast grids and
ensembles continue indicate just a few tenths of an inch rainfall
and moderate to high probability of up to 0.50" to 0.75" over Marfa
Plateau and then northwest Permian Basin into eastern SE NM plains.
Despite this, we cannot rule out flash flooding if heavier storms do
develop and pass over poor drainage regions, even if overall risk of
flash flooding is low. Lows Tuesday night and again cool a few more
degrees from the previous night, falling into the mid to upper 60s,
lower 70s along Pecos River into eastern Permian Basin and down into
Terrell County and southern Rio Grande basins, with lower to mid 60s
over Marfa Plateau. Despite the risk of showers/storms early
Wednesday morning, a drier pattern may still have to wait until the
end of the week. More on that in the long term discussion.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

A weak cold front sags south through the southern Great Plains by
Wednesday. This coincides with the upper-level ridge remaining off
to our west near the Four Corners region with a digging trough
across the Mississippi River Valley. Temperatures cool slightly in
response to this cold front becoming slightly below normal during
the afternoon as high temperatures only reach the upper 80s to lower
90s for most of the area. Similarly, overnight temperatures
gradually include more middle to upper 60s instead of the lower 70s
we have been experiencing lately. With this front, a medium to high
(30-70%) chance of thunderstorms is expected for nearly the entire
region during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday. Thursday is
anticipated to be a similar story to Wednesday, though thunderstorm
chances lower (20-40%) across southeast New Mexico and the
northwestern Permian Basin as the frontal influence lessens and the
upper-level ridge to our west strengthens slightly.

By Friday and next weekend, temperatures hold steady and remain
slightly below normal for the region. Thunderstorm chances continue,
but the coverage begins to lessen as western portions see
thunderstorms suppressed by the upper-level ridge to the west.
Despite this, there remains a low to medium (20-40%) chance of
thunderstorms across the Davis Mountains, Permian Basin, and Lower
Trans Pecos through the end of the forecast period. A welcomed sight
for the region with these continued monsoonal-esque thunderstorms.

Precipitation amounts will vary wildly during this time. In areas
that see slow-moving or multiple days of thunderstorms, several
inches of rainfall may have accumulated when everything is said and
done. Meanwhile, areas that only see brief downpours or more showery
precipitation may only receive a few tenths of an inch. Regardless,
cumulative chances are high in at least some beneficial rainfall for
the entire region through the end of the forecast. Enjoy!

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

VFR conditions outside of MVFR or lower VIS and CIGS in
showers/storms. Highest probability of showers/storms 18Z-23Z for
terminals in SE NM plains into Upper Trans Pecos and Stockton
Plateau, with a low probability of rain farther south and east
into 03Z. Main impacts at terminals from any storms will continue
to include lightning, gusty winds, heavy rain, and small hail.
Winds at terminals shift to south/southeast and become gusty at or
above 15 knots 16Z-01Z for central and eastern Permian Basin
before decreasing. Winds are forecast to shift to northerly at CNM
04Z-08Z Tuesday, and easterly for terminals over Lea County into
Upper Trans Pecos 08Z Tuesday into end of period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               98  73  97  72 /  20  20  30  30
Carlsbad                 95  71  95  72 /  50  30  30  20
Dryden                   99  74  98  74 /  10  10  20  20
Fort Stockton            95  73  97  72 /  40  10  40  20
Guadalupe Pass           85  67  85  67 /  50  30  50  20
Hobbs                    93  69  94  70 /  40  20  30  30
Marfa                    86  62  86  62 /  60  20  60  10
Midland Intl Airport     96  74  96  73 /  20  20  40  30
Odessa                   95  74  96  72 /  30  20  30  30
Wink                     95  72  96  72 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...94