316
FXUS64 KMAF 041726
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1224 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

- Rain/storm chances decrease for Independence Day, becoming more
  confined to our far eastern counties and the Davis Mountains/Big
  Bend. Similar hazards are expected including heavy rainfall
  leading to flash flooding for specific locations, lightning, and
  wind gusts up to 40 mph.

- Additional low rain chances Sunday (10-30%, up to 50% in the
  Davis Mountains).

- Temperatures gradually warm closer to/above normal through next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

After a rare widespread persistent rainy day across the region, a
couple of showers remain across Brewster County and the
northeastern Permian Basin. These showers are expected to
dissipate early this morning. The current synoptic pattern
consists of a shortwave trough extending from the Texas Panhandle
to Concho Valley, along with a low pressure system from the
remnants of post Tropical Storm Barry. Today, both storm systems
will move away from the region, providing drier weather moving
forward. The moisture supply from both systems is going to stick
around, however, making it a muggy Independence Day areawide. This
will also induce scattered showers/storms mainly confined to the
Davis Mountains, Lower Trans Pecos, and eastern Permian Basin
beginning in the afternoon. Some high resolution models have
hinted at isolated showers/storms across portions of the northern
and central Permian Basin, though there is much uncertainty and
model discrepancy for these isolated storms to occur. Outflow
boundaries from storms may lead to further shower/storm
development downstream (central and eastern/southeastern Permian
Basin). Similar hazards and impacts are expected from previous
days which will include heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding
for specific locations, lightning, and wind gusts up to 40 mph. By
10-11 PM CDT (for areas that receive rain), showers are
anticipated to end where most locations will be able to enjoy some
fireworks! High temperatures are forecasted to generally be in
the mid 80s to mid 90s regionwide. Dew point temperatures look to
reach the upper 60s to potentially mid 70s, especially across
portions of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. These
abnormal dew points will make temperatures feel more oppressive
than usual. Be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks
particularly for those who have outdoor activities during the
afternoon today.

Saturday, the aforementioned shortwave trough lifts northeastward
into the Upper Mississippi Valley, while an upper-level ridge builds
into the region from the west. Warmer and much drier conditions are
expected with temperatures ranging in the lower to upper 90s.
Precipitation chances remain very low over the whole region (< 15%).

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Low to medium (10-50%) rain chances return on Sunday as an
inverted trough positions itself off the east coast of Texas. The
inverted trough is also going to generate cover cloud over much of
the region, reducing high temperatures a couple of degrees
compared to Saturday. The greatest precipitation chance lies in
the Davis Mountains, with considerably lower chances for the rest
of the region. The cloud cover sticks around on Monday keeping
similar high temperatures from the previous day.

Tuesday, upper-level ridging becomes the dominant feature lasting
through the rest of next week, perhaps longer. Cluster analysis also
indicates ridging building in during this timeframe due to great
agreement among the ensemble models. As a result, summer-like
temperatures and dry conditions look to take over for the
foreseeable future.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period, save perhaps some
temporary dips to MVFR at MAF for the next hour or so (though
confidence was too low to include a TEMPO). Light winds are shifting
northerly/northwesterly across the region, but by this evening will
generally shift back to a southeasterly direction.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               92  72  95  72 /  20  10  10  10
Carlsbad                 94  71  98  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   94  72  95  73 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            94  73  98  71 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           86  70  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    92  68  94  70 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    86  64  92  65 /  20   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     93  73  96  72 /  20  10   0  10
Odessa                   92  71  96  71 /  10  10   0  10
Wink                     94  70  98  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...13