217
FXUS64 KMAF 190845
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
345 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

The next couple days will feel more like summer than early fall.
Highs today reach up into the mid to upper 90s for most with the
Pecos and Rio Grande river valleys reaching the century mark. An
upper level ridge remains overhead and this will keep rain chances
down with the Davis Mountains seeing a shower or two develop and
decay during the afternoon. Continued southeasterly and southerly
flow will keep the area warm overnight with most in the upper 60s to
low 70s. Friday is similar to today, but temperatures end up a
degree or two cooler as the upper level ridge shifts to the east
slightly. An upper low begins to impinge on the ridge and rain
chances tick upwards across the western fringes of the CWA. ANy
activity that does develop will be isolated in nature.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

For those who like cooler weather, it`s still on the way.  To what
extent is the question, as model solutions diverge considerably
early in the long term.

Saturday, the upper trough is forecast to eject to the Four Corners
by 00Z Sunday, resulting in progressive southwest flow aloft over
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  This feature will push a Pac
front into Southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain of Texas to
the south, but it won`t get any farther east than that.  Models
develop convection along the front/dryline during the afternoon.
Models continue developing 35-45 kts of deep-layer shear over the
northwest half of the CWA Saturday afternoon ahead of the trough,
but better mid-level lapse rates supporting of large hail remain to
the north and west.  However, forecast soundings continue to depict
dcapes approaching 1500 J/kg and dry subcloud layers/inverted-V
signatures, so at least an isolated damaging wind threat cannot be
ruled out.  Saturday will be the warmest day of the extended
forecast, w/highs topping out ~ 8-10 F above normal.

Sunday, the trough further ejects up into the Central Plains,
pushing the Pac front/dryline a little farther east into the CWA and
orienting it more SW-NE.  At the same time, a cold front will
intrude upon the area, but when it arrives and how far south it gets
is a crapshoot.  The CMC is faster w/this feature than the
GFS/ECMWF, both of which lag behind the NBM solution.  Diurnal
heating may slow it up, as well.  Convection is possible along/east
of the Pac front/dryline, and this may help move the front south and
negate heating.  LREH spreads remain large.  At any rate,
thicknesses plunge, and highs could be within a couple of degrees of
normal most locations before the afternoon is out.

Monday, zonal flow sets in over the region as the trough ejects up
towards the Great Lakes.  The front is forecast to be roughly along
I-10, although models continue to disagree on this.  This will
continue to be a focus for at least a chance of convection.
Temperatures will be downright cool and below normal most
locations...around 5-7 F cooler than Sunday.

Tuesday, return flow increases and temperatures recover somewhat,
but this will be ephemeral as a secondary trough arrives, complete
with a cold front Tuesday night.  If this pans out, Wednesday will
be the coolest day this forecast as highs average ~ 3-5 F below
normal.  Rain chances ramp up area-wide Tuesday/Wednesday w/the
arrival of the secondary trough/front.

Unfortunately, everything from around Sunday on should be taken w/a
grain of salt and subject to (likely) change, as there remains a
great degree of uncertainty among the long-range models, and
confidence remains low.  This is the status quo for this time of
year and the change of seasons. Forecast temperatures and rain
chances are well within what`s normal, however.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

VFR continues through the period. Mainly southeasterly winds
overnight. Gusts picking back up during the day today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               97  71  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 97  70  95  70 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                   97  72  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            99  70  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           90  70  89  66 /  10  10  10  20
Hobbs                    96  68  93  68 /  10  10   0  10
Marfa                    93  63  92  64 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     96  71  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   97  72  94  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                    100  73  98  73 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...93