798
FXUS64 KMAF 041055
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
555 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 554 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

- High rain chances are in the forecast across much of the area
  today through Saturday. The best chances for decent wetting
  rainfall are across the southeast New Mexico Plains, Permian
  Basin, Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, and Upper Trans Pecos
  region.

- A few strong to marginally severe storms capable of producing
  hail will be possible again Friday evening and late Friday
  night over the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos
  region.

- Freezing temperatures are possible across much of the area
  Sunday morning, with the chance of a rain/snow mix in the
  Guadalupes and central/northern Lea County New Mexico. Impacts
  to travel are not expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Night Fog/IR satellite imagery shows clouds streaming in from
southwest to northeast early this morning. IR indicates cold cloud
top over eastern Stockton Plateau into eastern Permian Basin. These
cold cloud tops are associated with strong storms over these
regions, which are showing up on reflectivity as clusters of
supercells, with a left splitting supercell moving into Midland-
Odessa around midnight to 1 AM central time today, and another storm
moving into the metro between 2:30 and 3:00 AM followed by a few
more storms in its wake, with reports of small hail. These strong to
severe storms are largely courtesy of wind shear provided by
southwesterly mid to upper tropospheric flow ahead of a closed low
situated over the Great Basin into Four Corners and digging into the
Desert SW, backed easterly flow at low-levels on soundings,
elongated straight hodographs with veering and increasing winds up
to the mid-upper troposphere, but with instability lacking as
temperatures are in the mid to upper 50s, dew point temperatures in
the mid to upper 40s, and minimal CAPE. Lapse rates above 3 km AGL
are at or greater than moist adiabatic 5-6 C/km are present as well,
so in the strongest storms we are seeing a risk of hail, given
moderate RH in the low to mid levels allowing for enough evaporative
cooling and reducing melting of falling hailstones. PoPs continue to
remain above the scattered 30% range north and northeast of the
Davis Mountains today as shear and moisture remain high behind a
cold front situated over the southern part of the CWA, but ahead of
a persistent upper low over the Great Basin into Four Corners.

Widespread cloud cover and rain chances limit diurnal heating today,
with highs 10 to 15 degrees below average for early April, ranging
from mid to upper 50s western higher terrain into SE NM plains,
lower to mid 60s north of I-10, and 70s and above south of I-10.
Ensembles depict a 70% to 90% probability of highs above 75F but
below 80F for locations south of I-10, and a similar probability of
highs above 80F but below 85F for the Big Bend. Highs not reaching
50F are likely in the higher elevations of the Guadalupes into
westernmost Eddy County, where there is a 40% to 60% probability of
highs only reaching the mid 40s. Highs above at least 60F have a 50%
to 70% probability of occurrence across the northern Permian basin
to the leeward side of the western higher terrain. SPC has again
outlooked the eastern parts of the CWA in a MRGL to SLGT risk, with
the main risk in the strongest storms being hail, and with the
greatest risk of other hazards such as damaging winds and tornadoes
east of the entire CWA. Therefore, the main impacts with any rain
today after this morning`s storms will be the potential for heavy
rain, mainly from the western higher terrain into SE NM plains and
northern Permian Basin, where there is a 40% to 60% probability of
rainfall at least 0.25", and similar probability of rainfall above
0.50" for SE NM plains into northwest Permian Basin.

As a low-level jet strengthens over west-central Texas Friday
evening, increased moisture transport results in increased rain
chances. CAMs depict showers and storms that initiate over elevated
terrain of the Davis Mountains Friday evening continuing northeast,
with at least a few tenths of accumulations where these storms trek.
With low dew point depressions persisting, so will widespread low
cloud cover. This limits radiational cooling. However, given most of
the CWA will be north of a surface cold front per WPC Surface
Analysis, light northerly winds will allow enough CAA to keep lows
near to below average, ranging from the lower to mid 40s, upper 40s
to lower 50s southern Rio Grande basins into Terrell County, and
lower to mid 30s usual cooler spots of Davis Mountains, northern
Guadalupes in westernmost Eddy County, and northern Lea County.
Ensembles only show a moderate probability of lows down to 35F
across SE NM plains, and a low probability of lows down to 30F for
westernmost Eddy County and northernmost Lea County. Therefore,
expecting lows Friday night to remain above freezing despite the
below average temperatures.

Saturday continues the below average surface temperature pattern and
is likely to be the coldest day in the short and long terms. Highs
in the 40s western higher terrain into SE NM plains and northern to
central Permian Basin, lower to mid 50s over and north and northeast
of the Davis Mountains, 60s for the Rio Grande basins, and 70s in
the Big Bend are indicated in the NBM. These highs ranging from 25
to 30 degrees below average will be a result of gusty northerly
winds, continued widespread low cloud cover limiting solar heating
despite the higher solar angle this time of year, and moderate to
high rain chances continuing for most of the region north and
northeast of the Davis Mountains. There is a high probability in
ensembles of highs in the lower to mid 40s the region north and
northeast of the Davis Mountains, moderate probability of highs only
reaching 35F from Davis into Guadalupe Mountains, SE NM plains, and
northwest Permian Basin, and a high probability of highs between 60F
and 65F down into the Big Bend. Rainfall totals by the end of the
day Saturday are even at the 5th to 10th percentile, above 0.50" for
Lea County into northern and eastern Permian Basin, but at the 50th
percentile, up to 1" for these same regions. A greater than 90%
probability of rain totals above 0.75" is indicated for Lea County
in ensembles, and at least a 70% probability of rain totals up to
1", with moderate probabilities of rain totals up to 1.25", and low
probabilities of rain totals up to 1.50". Spread ranges from about
0.50" to about 1.00", but highest rain totals are likely to be in
the 0.75" to 1.00" range with only the spots with the most
frequently occurring showers/storms having rain totals above 1.00".
With the cold temperatures Friday night and Saturday, some freezing
precipitation is indicated for higher elevations and northern into
central Lea County. NBM indicates snow totals up to 1.0", but lower
percentiles of ensembles showing only a few tenths of an inch of
accumulation over these regions. Given the warmer than average air
temperatures and above freezing ground temperatures, any freezing
temperature accumulation is uncertain. Following the troughing from
the storm system over the Four Corners late this week into the
beginning of this weekend, geopotential heights and thicknesses rise
in both deterministic and ensemble models, and warmer and drier
conditions are again in store. More on this in the long term
discussion.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

The upper level storm system will finally move to the east of our
forecast area late Saturday night. Moisture wrapping around the
backside of this system will bring a lingering chance of
precipitation to our region through Saturday evening before ending
by late Saturday night. Temperatures will remain cold enough for
lingering light snow showers over far southeast NM and the
northwestern Permian Basin and also in the higher terrain areas of
the western CWA Saturday evening with light rain showers expected
elsewhere before precipitation ends. Much drier conditions return
next week as northwesterly flow aloft prevails with embedded
ridging. Highs on Sunday will remain cool in the 50s and 60s
behind the departing system before a warming trend commences
through the upcoming week. Highs on Wednesday and Thursday should
warm back into the 80s over much of the area, except 90s to near
100 degrees over the southern Big Bend and along the Rio Grande.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

MVFR or lower CIGs forecast throughout TAF period at all
terminals north and northeast of Davis Mountains. VFR VIS apart
from MVFR or lower VIS in any regions of showers/storms and mist
or fog. Uncertainty remains regarding timing, duration, and
coverage of any showers/storms, so left out mention of any weather
that would restrict visibility in TAFs. Highest chance of VIS
restrictions from beginning of period into 15Z in regions of mist
and fog, and again with showers/storms developing after 21Z today
through end of period. Northerly/northeast winds, gusty at times,
expected for terminals throughout period, with more variable and
gustier winds where showers/storms occur.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               61  44  50  33 /  60  80 100  40
Carlsbad                 56  36  45  29 /  80  80 100  20
Dryden                   77  52  63  38 /  30  80  70  20
Fort Stockton            68  46  52  32 /  70  90 100  30
Guadalupe Pass           52  36  39  25 /  70  70  90  20
Hobbs                    58  35  46  28 /  80  80 100  30
Marfa                    68  40  50  26 /  70  70  90  20
Midland Intl Airport     62  44  49  31 /  50  80 100  30
Odessa                   63  45  48  32 /  60  90 100  30
Wink                     65  43  48  30 /  80  90 100  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...94