634
FXUS64 KMAF 021734
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1234 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026


- A cold front is pushing through West Texas and Southeast New
  Mexico today, and will result in the coolest day since last May,
  and the best chances for rain through next week.

- A gradual warming trend is in store through midweek next week.
  However, highs will remain in the 80s or lower most locations.
  Rain chances after this weekend will be minimal, and confined
  generally to the vicinity of the Davis Mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

For those who prefer cooler, wetter weather, today is your day.  WV
imagery this morning shows the upper trough directly over West Texas
and Southeast New Mexico.  At the surface, a Pac front moved through
the area yesterday, keeping temperatures cool, but a cold front is
on its heels this morning, moving through the area and veering
surface winds to northeast.  A few hours of high gap winds are
possible through Guadalupe Pass, but this looks like a marginal
event, and not as strong as models were portending a few days ago.
CAA behind the front will usher in the coolest temperatures since
late May earlier this year.  Afternoon highs should come in ~ 8-10 F
below normal, making today the coolest day this forecast.  If MOS is
to be believed, even these highs may be too high.  To assist in
these cooler temperatures will be upslope flow, maintaining a low
overcast and a chance of mainly showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms in weak isentropic upglide. Unfortunately, today looks
to be the best chance of rain this forecast, so areas that miss out
today will probably stay dry for the next 8-10 days.

Tonight, CAA continues, and despite persistent cloud cover,
overnight minimums will likewise be the coldest this forecast,
settling into the 50s most locations...around 2-4 F above
climatology.  Best chances of convection will remain in the lee of
the mountains due to upslope flow.

Saturday, the upper trough remains anchored in place over West Texas
and Southeast New Mexico.  Highs may moderate a degree or two, but
conditions will not change much under persistent overcast and
northeast winds going light/variable as they begin veering to east.
Best chances for showers will be invof the old frontal boundary to
the south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

The extended forecast remains rather pedestrian, as most of the
noteworthy changes are frontloaded into the short term.  By Sunday
afternoon, the upper ridge over SoCal is forecast to meander
eastward to the Four Corners, nudging the upper trough east.  This
will result in a gradual increase in thicknesses/temperatures
through midweek or so, when highs top out Wednesday afternoon ~ 7-9
F above normal.  Despite this increase, highs will still be in the
80s most locations.  Absent any triggers in the synoptic pattern, as
well as cold fronts, rain chances will be hard to come by, and
restricted away from the ridge to the mountains in the south.  Even
so, chances remain minimal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

MVFR CIGs prevail at most sites through the period. Breezy north
and northeasterly winds this afternoon gradually taper down
through the overnight hours. A few showers will be possible in and
around CNM and MAF this afternoon, then FST tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               57  76  59  81 /  20  20  10  10
Carlsbad                 56  74  55  80 /  30  10   0  10
Dryden                   61  75  62  79 /  50  50  40  30
Fort Stockton            56  73  57  77 /  50  30  20  30
Guadalupe Pass           51  66  53  70 /  30  10   0  10
Hobbs                    53  74  55  79 /  20   0   0  10
Marfa                    51  70  52  71 /  20  20  10  20
Midland Intl Airport     58  76  60  80 /  20  10  10  10
Odessa                   58  76  61  81 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                     57  76  59  81 /  20   0   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon for
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

NM...High Wind Warning until noon MDT today for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...95