619
FXUS64 KMAF 111811
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
111 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1245 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

- Cooler temperatures and increased storm chances (20-50%) are in
  store today and Tuesday. The main threats for the strongest
  storms will be gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy
  rainfall leading to flash flooding for a few locations. The
  greatest risk of flash flooding will be across southeast New
  Mexico.

- Temperatures begin to climb back above normal as thunderstorms
  become largely confined west of the Pecos River valley by the
  latter half of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Current satellite and latest RAP analysis shows upper-level
troughing across the Great Plains extending into portions of eastern
New Mexico. The upper-level ridge continues to head westward,
sitting over west coast states. This synoptic setup will allow a
cooler and wetter weather pattern across the region for the next
couple of days. Today, temperatures are forecasted to reach the
upper 80s to upper 90s, besides a few locations along the Trans
Pecos and Rio Grande valley hitting the lower 100s this afternoon.
Short range guidance has been trending upward in temperatures
today compared to previous days due to the placement of the cold
front further north than previously forecasted. Summer daytime
heating along and ahead of the front will destabilize the
atmosphere promoting storm development early in the afternoon.
Convective Allowing Models (CAMs) hint at storm initiation around
19/20Z in the Davis Mountains and southeast New Mexico. Outflow
boundaries from these storms is going to assist with downstream
development across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin later in the
afternoon lasting through the evening. Forecast soundings depict
"inverted-V" profiles, along with sufficient DCAPE (1100-1400
J/kg) values signaling a thunderstorm wind gust (dry microburst)
threat. Mainly non to sub-severe storms are expected given low
shear will prevent these storms from sustaining themselves.
Another hazard to consider is flash flooding. Areas across
southeast New Mexico are going to have the greatest risk of flash
flooding due to recent, widespread heavy rainfall, along with good
agreement among CAMs having more storms develop this afternoon and
evening. PWATs remain near and just below the climatological
daily mean which will keep the flash flood threat minimal for
areas that have not received recent rainfall.

Tuesday, a similar synoptic pattern is in store as both the
aforementioned troughing and ridging stays put. A cold front is
expected to arrive in the region early Tuesday morning per good
agreement among high resolution and short range guidance. As a
result, Tuesday looks to be the coolest day of the week with high
temperatures spanning from the mid 80s to mid 90s. Warmer
temperatures will reside for portions south of Interstate 10 due to
the boundary stalling north of the corridor. One of the main
uncertainties for Tuesday is where exactly this boundary will set
up. The further south it sets up, there will be less coverage of
storms for areas behind/north of the boundary. Similar hazards
are expected with these storms compared with Monday.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Isolated to scattered storms and rain showers linger Tuesday evening
into the overnight hours, thanks to the aforementioned frontal
boundary. Upper-level ridging begins to build back to the east on
Wednesday promoting a warming trend through the rest of the week.
Rain chances (10-45%) decrease for most locations Wednesday
afternoon. Areas in the higher terrain are going to have greatest
chance in seeing storms/rain, thanks to southeasterly upslope flow.
Surface troughing and a weaker upper high pressure system looks to
mitigate temperatures from becoming too hot where high temperatures
are forecasted to range in the 90s (slightly above normal for this
time of year) with a couple of locations reaching the century mark
in the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande. Ensemble guidance has surface
troughing persisting through much of the long-term period, promoting
daily afternoon rain/storm chances generally west of the Pecos River
valley.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

VFR conditions are generally anticipated to prevail across the
region through the next 24 hours. The exception will be near
scattered SHRA/TSRA that are developing over the northern Permian
Basin early this afternoon and eventually into portions of
southeast New Mexico and areas west of the Pecos later this
afternoon into this evening. Confidence was high enough to keep
PROB30 mention at KCNM and KHOB this afternoon/evening and may
need to add TS mention at KMAF along an outflow boundary this
afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds are expected with storms that
develop. Southeasterly winds otherwise remain prevalent outside of
convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               98  70  93  71 /  20  30  30  30
Carlsbad                 98  69  93  69 /  30  50  30  30
Dryden                   98  74  99  74 /   0   0  20  10
Fort Stockton            98  72  97  71 /  20  10  30  10
Guadalupe Pass           89  65  86  66 /  40  40  30  30
Hobbs                    95  65  91  67 /  20  40  30  30
Marfa                    90  62  88  61 /  50  20  60  20
Midland Intl Airport     98  72  94  72 /  10  20  30  40
Odessa                   97  71  93  71 /  10  20  30  40
Wink                     98  71  95  70 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...21