280
FXUS64 KMAF 222043
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
243 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 228 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

- Temperature roller coaster as we deal with a few waves of cold
  fronts throughout the period.

- Winds become a little breezy Friday afternoon.

- Low chances (10-30%) of precipitation return by early to middle of
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 228 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Temperatures have been noticeably warmer today with highs reaching
well into the 40s and 50s across the area with only a little high
cirrus clouds to filter insolation. However surface observations
show a cold front currently near the I-10 corridor and moving south
that will keep lows tonight in the 20s to upper teens. The front
isn`t terribly strong, but there is enough cold air behind it to
cause cold temps tomorrow and leave highs only in the upper 30s to
40s despite mostly clear skies for most.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 228 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

On Friday, the trough that brought us cooler temperatures Thursday
drifts off to our east. At the surface, a high pressure system
develops over the Gulf coast of Louisiana while a low develops just
off the Rockies near the northern portion of the Texas Panhandle by
the afternoon. Caught between these two, winds become breezy out of
the southwest during the afternoon. The strongest winds will be over
the Guadalupes, but remain below advisory criteria. Highs warm up
notably compared to Thursday, reaching into the 50s. Friday night
lows settle into the mid 20s to mid 30s.

An upper-level trough takes shape over the Pacific Northwest while a
surface high rests over the southeastern U.S. Saturday. These
increase warm air advection over our area. As a result, highs trend
upward, warming into the 70s along the Rio Grande, 60s for most, and
50s for the northern portions of our region, where a cold front
begins to drop in.

The cold front continues to sweep in Saturday night, but struggles
to clear the mountains. Sunday morning lows cool into the 20s and
30s, with fairly cold wind chills dipping into the teens in our
northern counties. Highs reach in the upper 40s to mid 50s, while
those south of the I-10 corridor warm into the 60s and 70s.

Heading into Monday, a surface high sets up behind the front,
allowing cold air to stick around. Highs look similar to Sunday,
with the exception of the 60s and 70s being pushed further south. By
Tuesday, the high shifts east and an upper-level low over the 4
Corners helps drive southwesterly winds aloft. Temperatures begin a
gradual warming trend, with highs in the low 50s to low 60s Tuesday,
then climbing a few degrees more Wednesday. Low (10%-30%) rain
chances creep into the forecast Tuesday morning through Wednesday
morning as the upper-level low approaches, with best chances over
the northeastern Basin. We`ll have to wait and see how these hold up
as time progresses. Otherwise, the period looks to remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours as a cold front
shifts winds from the north and northeast over the next 6 hours.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               23  45  20  54 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 19  41  18  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   27  50  24  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            23  45  22  59 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           22  35  21  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    21  40  20  51 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    20  41  15  52 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     22  44  21  52 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   23  43  22  51 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     23  44  19  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...21