718
FXUS64 KMAF 090453
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1153 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1152 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

- Isolated showers and storms (10-20%) this afternoon, mainly
  along and south of the Pecos River. Brief heavy rainfall and
  frequent lightning will be the main hazards for these storms.

- Warm and dry weather with south/southwest winds from late week into
  early this weekend, then winds shifting back to southeast with
  increasing cloud and rain chances.

- Highest rain chances Sunday into early next week still expected over
  westernmost higher terrain of Culberson County, TX and Eddy
  County, NM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Current observations show the cold front stalling over the higher
terrain this morning. This boundary is expected to remain stalled
throughout today, allowing for isolated shower and thunderstorm
development mainly along and south of the Pecos River. CAMs depict
PWATs ranging in the 75-90th climatological percentile indicating
the potential for heavy rainfall. Flash flooding is not a concern
given the isolated shower/storm coverage, along with the dry mid
and lower level moisture profiles allowing evaporation of some
precipitation to occur before it reaches the surface. Therefore,
the main hazards will be brief heavy rainfall and frequent
lightning. High temperatures across the region are going to be the
coolest for the foreseeable future reaching the upper 70s to mid
80s for most.

After sunset, showers and storms will dissipate. Lows tonight
remain warmer than normal (mid 50s to upper 60s), thanks to mid-
level moisture advecting from Hurricane Priscilla keeping residual
cloud cover in the region. High relative humidity values and
light winds are prevalent across the northern half of the forecast
area tomorrow morning. This may result in areas of patchy fog
Thursday morning especially over northern Lea County and the
northern Permian Basin. Confidence is very low for patchy fog
because of the mid-level cloud cover, however, breaks of this
cloud coverage in localized areas will allow for patchy fog to
occur.

Thursday, an upper high pressure system builds over the region
which will promote dry and warm conditions through the rest of the
work week. Surface winds veer southeasterly with high
temperatures anticipated to be a degree or two warmer than today.
Southeasterly winds will also assist with upslope flow across the
higher terrain for isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorm
development. Lows Thursday night will be a degree or two cooler
due to less cloud cover enhancing radiational cooling. The dry and
warming trend continues heading into the long-term.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Mid to upper ridging over the southern CONUS prevails late week
into early this weekend as winds shift from southeast to
south/southwest. Dew point temperatures remain at or below mid 50s
F Friday, with high temperatures in mid to upper 80s F, upper 70s
to lower 80s F higher elevations, and lower to mid 90s F along
Rio Grande. As winds stay lighter overnight despite breezy
afternoon/evening conditions, lows in 50s F higher elevations, 60s
F elsewhere are anticipated. A warming trend this weekend takes
place, and high temperatures have trended up Sunday as lower to
mid 90s F expand in coverage over Upper Trans Pecos and eastern
Permian Basin, and high temperatures warm into upper 80s F over SE
NM plains. Dew point temperatures remaining low Saturday night
mean similar lows to Friday night, but a few degrees warmer from
warmer daytime temperatures. Sunday, rain chances increase over
westernmost higher terrain into SE NM plains as the next storm
system and a cold front from the north and west develops south and
east into the area. As winds back to southeasterly and dew point
temperatures increase into the mid 50s F to lower 60s F, lows
Sunday night in the mid to lower 60s F with 50s F only over Marfa
Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos and northern Lea County are
forecast. Rain chances increase early next week as tropical
moisture from remnants of TC Priscilla farther to the west over
AZ/NM interact with lift and moisture accompanying a cold moving
in from the north and west. Highest rain chances over SE NM plains
into westernmost higher terrain from Eddy County into Culberson
County are still expected Monday into Tuesday, before rain chances
again decrease with ridging taking hold. Forecasts of rainfall
timing, coverage, and magnitude are still uncertain this far out,
but models have increased forecasts from a few hundredths to a few
tenths of an inch over westernmost Eddy County and Culberson
County. With increased clouds and rain chances, high temperatures
follow suit, decreasing by a few degrees resulting in mid to upper
80s F, mid to upper 70s F highest elevations, and 90s F and above
along Rio Grande, parts of Reeves County Plains, and northeast
Permian Basin. Lows stay similar to Sunday night as dew point
temperatures remain high, so even as ridging again takes hold, the
air will not feel as dry as now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

VFR conditions and easterly to southeasterly winds will prevail
across the region through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               85  62  87  62 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 81  62  83  60 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                   87  67  87  65 /  20  10  10   0
Fort Stockton            84  63  86  62 /  20  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           72  59  74  58 /  20   0  20  10
Hobbs                    81  59  82  58 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                    77  56  77  53 /  10   0  20  10
Midland Intl Airport     85  63  86  63 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   84  64  86  63 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                     84  64  86  62 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...21