149
FXUS64 KMAF 120711
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
211 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 210 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

- Well above normal temperatures begin this afternoon.
  Temperatures peak in the upper 90s and low 100s for most of the
  region by Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.

- The hot temperatures decrease slightly towards the end of the
  week with a low chance (<20%) of showers and thunderstorms for
  very far eastern portions of the area by the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Much warmer temperatures are in store heading into the short-term
period. Current satellite imagery and latest RAP analysis has an
upper-level low positioned over the Lower Mississippi Valley, along
with an upper-level ridge extending from the Desert Southwest to the
Great Plains. The upper-level ridge is expected to build in closer
to the region today as the upper-level low progresses further
eastward across the Gulf Coast states. This will result in gusty
downslope winds, thus, dry and warmer conditions throughout the
period. Increasing cloud cover is expected across portions of west
Texas and southeast New Mexico late this afternoon as shortwave
impulses will form due to the ridge weakening. This could cool
temperatures a degree or two for a few locations over these areas if
cloud coverage increases during peak daytime heating. Regardless,
high temperatures are forecasted to be in the upper 80s to 90s with
a few locations along the Rio Grande and Presidio valley regions
reaching the lower triple digits.

Tonight, the upper-level ridge moves over the region. Guidance also
has a 40-50 kt low-level jet forming across portions of the Upper
Trans Pecos, Southeast New Mexico, and the Permian Basin, thanks to
a developing surface low in the Great Plains. This will place low
temperatures 5 to 13 degrees above normal for this time of year.

The low-level jet and the upper-level ridge stick around heading
into Tuesday afternoon, supplying a very warm and breezy day across
the forecast area. Breezy to strong westerly and west-nortwesterly
winds are anticipated as the upper-level ridge continues to weaken,
coinciding with a surface trough moving overhead. Wind hazards may
be warranted in future forecast packages especially for locations in
southeast New Mexico and west Texas. High temperatures are
forecasted to mainly range in the 90s to lower 100s. The trend of
hot temperatures persists into the long-term.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

The well above normal temperatures persist into the long term as the
mid-level ridge is maintained over the region. Temperatures start
warm on Wednesday in the upper 60s and low 70s. The afternoon will
not fair much better with a gusty west wind and temperatures pushing
well into the upper 90s and low  100s across the area. It is going
to feel like an oven with the gusty winds and a dry environment.

A weak front begins to swing into the region by Thursday morning.
This front is ushered through by a shortwave trough quickly passing
to our north and lifting into the Upper Midwest. This takes most
locations back into the upper 50s and middle 60s to start the day,
but 70s hold on along the river valleys. Afternoon temperatures see
an improvement as well, though remain above normal, as areas that
saw 100s on Wednesday fall back into the 90s and those that saw 90s
return to the 80s. Temperatures warm a degree or two for all on
Friday to close out the week.

The weather pattern this weekend remains a little uncertain.
Temperatures are expected to hold relatively steady across the
region, but will the dryline return? At the moment, long-range
ensembles have slowed down the progression of our next shortwave
trough and this greatly limits the westward retreat of the dryline.
There is still a low (<20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms
along and east of the dryline this weekend, but this largely
excludes our area except for very far eastern areas. Heading into
next week, this trough is expected to begin progressing east, and
may finally bring moisture back into our region.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Light
southeasterly winds shift to breezy southwesterly winds this
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               94  65 101  72 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 94  70  99  69 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   96  67 105  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            95  70  99  72 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           86  65  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    91  65  95  67 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    88  61  94  63 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     93  67 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   92  67  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     96  67 102  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...11