661
FXUS64 KMAF 091854
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
154 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 131 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

- A warming trend continues through Tuesday. Elevated to near
  critical fire weather conditions are expected both Monday and
  Tuesday due to warm temperatures and dry conditions.

- Two storm systems will swing in this week. The first system will
  occur Wednesday bringing breezy winds and critical to near
  critical fire weather conditions. A stronger system on Friday
  brings strong winds and higher fire weather concerns.

- Cooler temperatures are expected behind Friday`s cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Latest upper-level water vapor imagery and RAP analysis shows the
trough that swung through the region yesterday across northeast
Texas moving into the Lower Mississippi Valley. An upper-level ridge
is positioned over the Desert Southwest moving eastward, which is
going to provide warmer temperatures and continued dry weather
conditions throughout the short-term forecast period. Tonight`s low
temperatures are expected to be similar compared to the lows this
morning being in the lower 30s to lower 40s due to sufficient
radiational cooling. Very light southwesterly winds are also
anticipated tonight into tomorrow morning as a ridge of surface high
pressure places itself near the region.

Temperatures climb back into the 70s tomorrow with the exception for
some areas in the Guadalupe Mountains (mid 60s) and along the Rio
Grande (mid 80s). Southwesterly winds begin to increase by the early
afternoon hours, thanks to daytime mixing. A dry air mass coinciding
with increased winds will promote the potential for elevated fire
weather conditions over portions of the higher terrain, the Permian
Basin, and southeastern New Mexico. The upper-level ridge is
expected to be over the region by tomorrow night, supplying
warmer low temperatures in the mid 30s to upper 40s.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

A warmer than typical day for this time of year is in store Tuesday.
High temperatures are forecasted to generally be in the upper 70s to
mid 80s regionwide as the upper-level ridge continues to gradually
move eastward. Elevated fire weather conditions resume for
similar areas from Monday, with near critical concerns across the
Guadalupe Mountains. These concerns are expected to worsen
areawide as the week progresses.

The weather pattern gets more interesting heading into Tuesday night
and Wednesday lasting through much of the long-term period. An upper-
level trough will approach the region from the Desert Southwest
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This will push a Pacific front
through the region on Wednesday, providing breezy to strong westerly
winds and subtle cooler temperatures. High temperatures are
forecasted to be in the 70s across southeastern New Mexico, the
Permian Basin, and Trans Pecos, while areas along the Presidio and
Rio Grande valleys being in the low to mid 80s. Ensemble guidance
has been in agreement with sustained winds reaching High Wind
Warning criteria, however, there is quite a bit of spread and
uncertainty on the magnitude of these winds. Widespread near
critical fire weather concerns will be another hazard to consider.
The trough is expected to move out of the region rather quickly,
providing another ridge to build in briefly by Wednesday night. The
ridge will warm temperatures back up in the upper 70s to 80s and
keep winds fairly light on Thursday, besides the higher terrain
areas.

These warmer temperatures and fairly light winds cease heading into
Friday as a stronger Pacific front and upper-level trough makes
their way into the forecast area again. Deterministic and ensemble
guidance is hinting at a wind event across the region. Along with
that, the European Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails outputs
a 93rd and 96th percentile for both the sustained winds and wind
gusts during this timeframe. These percentiles signal a very unusual
to significant wind event forecasted to occur based on model
climatology. Fire weather concerns increase to critical due to the
prolonged dry conditions and strong winds forecasted for the entire
region. Temperatures are anticipated to drop slightly below normal
on Friday upon the frontal passage. Saturday looks to be slightly
warmer, though there is uncertainty due to the timing of when the
trough moves out of the area. Based on this uncertainty, the
stronger winds could prevail heading into Saturday morning as well,
though winds will not be as strong given the position of the trough
axis. No precipitation is expected for most of the region with
either of the aforementioned systems. There are low (10-20%) chances
of precipitation over the far western forecast zones Thursday night
into Friday morning. If any precipitation occurs, it will be light
accumulations (trace to 0.01").

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

VFR conditions will continue as northwesterly winds shift from the
southwest after sunset.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               33  76  43  82 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 33  74  39  77 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   40  76  43  84 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            38  77  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           37  65  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    34  73  37  77 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    30  68  37  76 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     35  73  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   37  72  43  80 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     33  75  39  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...10