622
FXUS64 KMAF 150838
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
238 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 233 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

 - A storm system will bring rain and thunderstorms to areas north
   of the Pecos River Sunday night into Monday morning. Best (>
   80%) confidence of rainfall greater than 1 inch over the
   northern Permian Basin.

 - Above normal temperatures forecast today and Saturday, much
   colder by middle of next week.

 - Windy conditions taking hold late Sunday night through Monday
   night, particualrly for the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 233 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Current satellite shows an upper level trough has moved into the
West Coast this morning. The trough will slowly move east over the
next 36 hours, increasing southwesterly mid-level winds across
southeastern New Mexico and West Texas and increasing temperatures.
Highs today reach the upper 70s to lower 80s and increase a few more
degrees on Saturday. Low level moisture remains across the eastern
half of the CWA but will not be deep enough to allow for convection
in the short term.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 233 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Significant change is on the way in the long term forecast. Sunday
will be the last day in the extended with above normal temperatures
reaching near 70F for many. A system approaches that afternoon and
into Sunday night and will increase rain chances nearly areawide.
Greatest chances for rain (>80%) will be north of I-20 across SE NM
and into the Permian Basin. Current forecasted amounts range from
near zero for areas around the Big Bend to over an inch over the
Permian Basin. However, there remains some uncertainty in regards to
where this system tracks across the region.

Monday sees winds pick up areawide and wind hazards will be issued,
particularly for the higher terrain, in coming updates. Winds
decrease late Monday with much drier air filtering in from west to
east behind a cold front. Another front pushes through on Tuesday
bringing much colder air. As the forecast stands, many areas look to
see their first freeze Thursday morning. Highs round out the week in
the 50s and 60s.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

VFR conditions and light to modest and occasionally gusty
southeasterly winds will continue the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               77  53  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 79  46  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   77  54  79  60 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            86  56  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           74  51  71  49 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                    76  50  78  51 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    79  46  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     77  54  80  58 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   77  55  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     83  51  84  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...10