227
FXUS64 KMAF 261105
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
605 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 601 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

- Warmer and drier conditions return this weekend, with the
  exception of areas across the Davis Mountains extending into the
  Big Bend.

- Another storm system is forecast to impact the region by early
  to mid-week. Heavy rainfall is expected with this system, which
  will elevate the risk for flash flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Radar imagery as of 2 AM CDT show thunderstorms dissipating across
portions of southeast New Mexico. For today, weak upper-level
ridging begins to build back into the region, supplying warmer and
drier conditions for most. High temperatures are expected to reach
back into the upper 80s and low 90s for most locations. Weak
disturbances aloft combined with surface troughing and upslope flow
induces isolated to widely scattered storm development during the
afternoon/evening across the Davis Mountains, Lower Trans Pecos, and
Big Bend region. Remnant outflow boundaries from the TX Panhandle
supply a low chance (10-20%) for isolated storms across the
Permian Basin today. High resolution forecast soundings continue
to depict inverted-V profiles, high DCAPE ( > 1000 J/kg) values,
high PWATs (75th to 90th climatological percentile), "skinny" CAPE
profiles, and sufficient deep-layer shear signaling a heavy
rainfall and gusty wind threat associated with the strongest
storms.

Tonight, upper-level ridging continues to build into the region.
Lows are forecast to span from the 60s to low 70s for most
locations. Drier and warmer conditions persist on Sunday from the
influence of the aforementioned ridge. Disturbances in the flow
aloft will provide low rain/storm chances (10-30%) for areas
across the Davis Mountains into the Big Bend region during the
afternoon. A more active and cooler weather pattern takes shape
next week. See the long-term discussion for more details!

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Another upper-level system approaches the region beginning on
Monday, providing an active weather pattern through at least the
middle part of next week. Rain chances start to increase for the
western half of the region as the storm system approaches. Long-
range guidance has what is going to be the remnants of Hurricane
Polo being absorbed into the aforementioned storm system. This is
going to supply vast amounts of upper-level and surface moisture
transport, resulting in areawide rain chances by Monday night
lasting through Wednesday. Guidance has indicated Tuesday will be
the "rainiest" day per the positioning of both systems. Ensemble
guidance also suggests PWATs reaching near and even exceeding
daily maximum climatological values throughout Tuesday. Therefore,
the threat of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding returns.
There remains uncertainty regarding the exact setup and specific
impacts with this upcoming system. We will continue to monitor
trends closely. Besides the rain, a cold front is forecast to move
through the region sometime on Wednesday/Wednesday night bringing
cooler temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Drier conditions
and similar temperatures (low to upper 80s) are expected behind
the front Thursday and Friday.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

VFR conditions throughout TAF period, except for MVFR or lower
conditions in any heavier showers/storms. Isolated showers/storms
forecast through mid morning from the Upper Trans Pecos and
Stockton Plateau through Permian Basin, with main impacts being
lightning and brief heavy rainfall. There is a low (10% to 20%)
chance of additional showers/storms later this afternoon through
early evening, but exact timing and coverage are uncertain, and
rain chances are too low for a mention in TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               93  70  95  71 /  20  20   0   0
Carlsbad                 89  64  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   95  73  96  73 /  20  10  10   0
Fort Stockton            93  69  93  70 /  30  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           81  63  82  64 /  10   0   0  20
Hobbs                    87  64  89  64 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                    86  60  87  61 /  30  10  20  10
Midland Intl Airport     91  70  93  70 /  20  20  10   0
Odessa                   90  71  92  71 /  20  20  10   0
Wink                     93  69  94  70 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...94