397
FXUS64 KMAF 281735
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1135 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1133 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

- A warming trend continues late this week into the weekend.

- A low (20%) chance of rain showers over the eastern Permian
  Basin on Sunday, with another potential low (20-30%) chance of
  rain showers over the eastern Permian Basin Monday night.

- Fire weather concerns increase late this weekend into early next
  week, especially on Tuesday when the strongest wind speeds are
  anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 256 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

A quiet pattern in the short term with no chance of rain to be
seen. Mid to upper ridging builds over the Intermountain West into
tomorrow, allowing for highs to warm farther on Saturday. IR and
Nighttime Fog Imagery does not indicate much more than scattered
coverage of high clouds. This is expected to continue into
tomorrow owing to large-scale subsidence from the ridge and
absence of any significant pressure/wind disturbances near the
surface and aloft. Today under mainly light southerly near surface
flow, highs are expected to rise 5 degrees higher than yesterday,
3 to 6 degrees above average for late February. NBM shows this
translating to lower to mid 70s, upper 60s to lower 60s higher
elevations, most of Lea County into northwest Permian Basin, and
lower to mid 80s in the Big Bend. Grand Ensemble, European ENS,
and Canadians GEPS are all showing similar temperatures for much
of the area, upper 60s to lower 70s including the Rio Grande from
Big Bend into Terrell County. Higher-resolution HRRR and NAM are
also similar. However, in NCEP GEFS ensemble showing warmest
temperatures for the CWA, there is still a 0% chance of 80F in the
Big Bend. Therefore, we`re expecting highs in the NBM which are
showing readings up to mid 80s F in Rio Grande Village to over
perform by a few degrees in the Big Bend today. For now, stuck
with highs from NBM for Friday.

Tonight under mainly light and variable winds and passing high
cloud cover, radiational cooling allows lows to fall into 40s, mid
to upper 30s northern Lea County into northwest Permian Basin and
basins of Culberson County, and upper 40s into lower 50s in Rio
Grande basins in NBM. Light winds enabling efficient drainage
flows in lower lying regions will also keep lows a few degree
lower than otherwise along the Pecos River. Grand Ensemble and
most of the ensembles apart from the Canadian GEPS show similar
lows, so went with NBM for lows Friday night, 5 to 10 degrees
above average.

Saturday as the ridge builds and winds increase out of the
southeast in advance of a short wave trough digging into the
Pacific SW/Desert SW, highs warm another 5F. Temperatures at least
10 degrees above average are anticipated when referencing highs
from the NBM. This translates to mid to upper 70s, upper 60s to
lower 70s higher elevations, and lower to mid 80s in Rio Grande
basins and portions of Stockton Plateau into southern Permian
Basin. However, both coarse and higher resolution deterministic
models as well as ensemble models depict cooler temperatures than
the NBM, with mainly upper 60s to mid 70s for most of the region.
Therefore, we are again expecting highs that are a few degrees
lower throughout the Rio Grande basins, more in the upper 70F to
lower 80F range than the mid to upper 80F range indicated in NBM
for Saturday. Nonetheless, as with Friday, went with NBM for highs
for Saturday for now. Under light southeast winds, dewpoint
temperatures are expected to recover into the lower to mid 30s F
over central portions of the CWA from Big Bend into Permian Basin,
and lower to mid 40s F from Terrell County into southeast Permian
Basin. However, much drier and windier conditions are in store
later in the forecast period. More on this in the long term
discussion.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 256 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

An upper-level storm system located near the vicinity of the Four
Corners region early Sunday morning is forecast to lift toward
the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and southwestern Kansas by late
Sunday afternoon. Southeasterly to southerly low level flow will
increase across the region late Saturday night into Sunday
morning, with a gradual increase in dewpoints in the 40s over far
southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin. The best forcing for
ascent ahead of the approaching storm system still looks to be
confined to areas north of our region late Saturday night into
Sunday morning, but perhaps just enough along the southern fringe
of this feature to support keeping a low (~15-20%) chance of rain
showers in the forecast over the northeastern Permian Basin,
mainly Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon. Confidence in
measurable rainfall continues to decrease and if this continues we
may eventually need to lower these PoPs below mentionable levels.
Winds gradually shift southwesterly and pick up in speed across
much of our area by Sunday afternoon. Wind speeds over the
Guadalupe Mountains may be border on high wind thresholds, so we
will continue to monitor trends to determine if high wind products
may become necessary there on Sunday. Highs on Sunday warm into
the 70s and 80s over most areas (except 60s in the mountains and
perhaps as warm as the lower 90s in a few spots along the Rio
Grande). Lows may only fall into the mid 40F to 50F range amidst
gusty westerly downsloping winds. These dry and gusty downsloping
winds may maintain a critical fire weather event well into the
evening before onset of radiational cooling and reduced boundary
layer mixing lead to decreased winds and subsequent fire threat.

The upper level system quickly lifts to the northeast across
Kansas and Missouri by Sunday night with mid-level ridging
building over our area behind this departing feature. Flow aloft
then transitions southwesterly on Monday in advance of the next
upper-level trough that will be digging over the western and
southwestern CONUS. Surface low pressure will develop in the lee
of the Rockies on Monday with the associated trough axis extending
through our area. A continuation of very warm temperatures in the
70s and 80s can be expected with breezy southwesterly winds
developing especially over the western half of the region by
Monday afternoon. The upper-level low is forecast to swing across
the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and into adjacent portions of
southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma on Tuesday. There may be a
narrow wind of opportunity for isolated showers or possibly
thunderstorms to develop over portions of the eastern/southeastern
Permian Basin Monday night as ascent spreads over this region
within southwesterly flow aloft. The better moisture/ascent will
probably be favored to our east, but we did maintain a low
(20-30%) chance of showers in the forecast mainly east of a Gail,
Big Lake, Sheffield line Monday night. A very strong mid/upper-
level jet will streak over our CWA along the base of this feature
Monday night into Tuesday, while the low level pressure gradient
also strengths over our region. High winds may develop in the
mountains late Monday night, with very windy conditions spreading
over much of the rest of the area on Tuesday. Wind speeds up to
30-40 mph with gusts up to 45-55 mph may impact a good portion of
our region, so high wind products may become necessary. We added
mention of areas of blowing dust to much of the area given these
increased westerly winds. We will need to monitor trends closely
for potential reduced restrictions in dust. Concerns also increase
for fire danger/growth/spread on Tuesday given these strong
westerly winds, very low humidity, and dry fuels. Highs on Tuesday
should trend cooler in the 60s and 70s.

Northwesterly flow aloft in the wake of the departing system
Wednesday morning should be followed by a building ridge over the
area by Wednesday afternoon. Dry conditions look to persist
Wednesday into Thursday, with temperatures averaging near to
slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals. Winds will generally be
light and variable at many sites today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               43  77  51  81 /   0   0   0  20
Carlsbad                 40  75  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   48  80  54  84 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            46  80  53  82 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           45  69  46  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    40  74  45  75 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    41  77  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     44  77  52  80 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   44  76  52  79 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     42  78  49  81 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...55