403
FXUS64 KMAF 301725
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1125 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1124 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

- Strong gap winds in the Guadalupe Mountains continue with near
  freezing temperatures for many this morning.

- The coldest day so far this season is expected today, with
  afternoon highs in the low-to-mid 40s for most.

- Rollercoaster ride of temperatures next week, with warming
  expected through midweek before another front arrives Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

The strongest cold front of the fall passed through here a few hours
ago, brrrringing considerably colder temperatures to West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.  Latest surface observations/mesoanalysis
indicates it`s banking up against the higher terrain at 06Z. High
gap winds are likely transpiring at KGDP, and although models are a
bit warmer than earlier runs, some locations will likely have their
first freeze later this morning.  This will be from CAA alone (as
opposed to radiational cooling)...a testament to the strength of the
front.

Unfortunately, today will not see much warming under overcast skies
and continued CAA.  Today will be the coldest day this forecast, as
well as the coldest yet this fall, as highs struggle to climb to ~ 15-
20 F below climatology.

Tonight, surface winds veer back to return flow, arresting CAA, but
a freeze is still anticipated, generally along and north of I-20. A
little drizzle is possible in the Big Bend.

Monday, temperatures attempt to recover under zonal flow aloft, and
should top out on average only a couple of degrees below normal,
before a secondary, weaker cold front arrives in the late
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1242 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

We`ve got quite the up-and-down week temperaturewise ahead. After
the current cold spell we will see a big warmup midweek with highs
rebounding into the 60s Tuesday and 70s Wednesday. This is all ahead
of another strong cold front expected to move through late
Wednesday. This front will drop temperatures back well below normal,
but for only for a day. A weak storm system that will take shape to
our west will help increase clouds and even add a chance (40%) for
light rain Thursday. This will keep most locations from reaching the
50 degree mark.

Westerly winds return late in the week and temperatures rebound back
into the 60s for highs. Another front, although much weaker, is due
to arrive early next week helping keep temperatures near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals, with brief periods of MVFR
possible. However, cigs will be hovering just above MVFR (035-
050kft) throughout the day today (with cirrus moving overhead) and
isn`t expected to significantly lift until 10-15Z Monday morning.
Easterly (southeasterly at CNM) winds under 10kts are generally
expected until 10-15Z Monday morning as well, where they shift to
southerly and remain under 10kts.

Greening

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               32  57  28  60 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 27  62  30  65 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   38  64  40  61 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            35  66  35  69 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           33  59  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    25  61  25  60 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    30  67  30  65 /   0   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     32  59  30  60 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   32  59  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     30  62  31  62 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Warning until 11 AM MST this morning for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...55