120
FXUS64 KMAF 061041
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
541 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

WV imagery this morning still shows a weakness in the upper ridge in
the form of an inverted trough that is having little effect on West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico other than keeping highs a bit cooler
each day than they otherwise would be.  That said, highs this
afternoon should be very similar to yesterday`s, if not a degree
warmer at ~ 7-9 F above normal.  A cold front will approach the area
but, like the last one, looks weak.  The latest NAM stalls it in the
South Plains, and it looks to have little effect but to back winds a
little.  Tonight, absent a LLJ and under mostly clear skies,
efficient radiational cooling will allow lows to come in only 6-8 F
above normal.  Monday, thicknesses come down as another front tries
to backdoor the area, shaving maybe 2-3 F off this afternoon`s
highs. The forecast remains dry.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Little change remains the name of the game for the long term
forecast. Each day features dry conditions with no rain expected.
Highs reaching into the 80s to low 90s and lows settling in the 50s
to low 60s will continue to be seen. Broad ridging holds through
Wednesday/Thursday before shifting southward and flattening out.
Height decreases lead to temperatures dipping closer to normal. Long
range model blends are beginning to add low (~10%) rain chances
along the northwestern zones, but as mentioned before little to no
rain continues to be the expectation.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light easterly flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               88  61  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 89  57  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   91  68  89  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            89  61  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           82  58  77  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    87  56  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    85  56  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     88  60  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   88  61  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     91  61  87  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...44