690
FXUS64 KMAF 072322
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
522 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 518 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

- Record high temperatures continue through tomorrow, along with elevated
  fire weather concerns (mainly over Southeast New Mexico and
  adjacent parts of West Texas, where some pockets of near-
  critical conditions will exist).

- A dry cold front Saturday night/Sunday morning brings
  temperatures down near or just below seasonal averages.

- An approaching trough will bring elevated winds to the Guadalupe
  and Delaware Mountains next week, particularly Tuesday into
  Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 155 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Another warmer than usual night into Saturday morning ahead.
Temperatures are forecast to generally be in the upper 40s to upper
50s regionwide. These temperatures may reach "warm low" record
territory as the record for Midland Intl is 50 degrees tomorrow
morning. The mid-level pattern remains the same with quasi zonal and
downslope flow which has been driving the unseasonably warm and
continued dry weather pattern over this past week.

Record high temperatures are in store tomorrow afternoon. Low-level
thermal ridging coinciding with the aforementioned mid-level pattern
will help temperatures reach the lower 80s to lower 90s for much of
the region. Areas along the Rio Grande are anticipated experiencing
highs in the mid to upper 90s. Ensemble and deterministic guidance
have 850mb temperatures reaching 24-25 degrees Celsius (75-77
Fahrenheit), along with 700mb temperatures reaching 10-12 degrees
Celsius (50-54 Fahrenheit). To put this into perspective, the
North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) from the Ensemble
Situational Awareness Table (ESAT) outputs a maximum
climatological percentile in the mean temperature at the 850 and
700mb levels throughout tomorrow. This hints at forecasted
temperatures being anomalously high and outside of the 1979-2009
climatology for this time of year. Therefore, there is high
(80-95%) confidence of these temperatures breaking the record
tomorrow afternoon.

A big swing of temperatures come tomorrow night into Sunday morning,
thanks to a cold front arriving in the region tomorrow evening. Low
temperatures will vary from the mid 30s to lower 40s over the
Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico, along with temperatures in
the mid 40s to 50s areas further southward. Portions across the
northern and central Permian Basin may see 45-55 degree temperature
differences within less than a day! Some deterministic guidance also
hints at saturation in the boundary layer, creating the potential of
low cloud cover and fog across west Texas and southeast New Mexico
Sunday morning. Confidence is very low (<15%) of these conditions
occurring at this time, however, details should be ironed out in the
upcoming forecast packages.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 155 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

The cold front Saturday night will keep temperatures for most of
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico closer to normal Sunday, with
highs topping out in the upper 50s and lower 60s for much of the
area (the normal high for KMAF is 62 degrees this time of year). The
exception will be locations beyond the mountains, as the shallow
cold air will struggle to overtop them. High pressure set up over
the Great Plains will help continue to recycle cold air down into
the area Monday, bringing highs down into the 50s for most.
Meanwhile, a weak disturbance early Monday morning coming around an
upper-level trough to our west could help to initiate a couple of
showers in the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos region,
with chances appearing low to moderate at this time (20-50%).

Another such disturbance will encourage low rain chances (10-30%)
Monday night into Tuesday as the aforementioned trough to the west
approaches. A few thunderstorms may even be allowed to develop, as
it appears there will be a little instability in our far eastern
counties. By Tuesday afternoon westerly flow and clearing skies will
encourage temperatures to rebound into the upper 60s and lower 70s.
Nevertheless, this warm-up will be short-lived as another shallow
cold front pushes into the region Tuesday night. Simultaneously, a
third disturbance aloft will bring more rain chances (20-40%) to the
northeastern Permian Basin. Between these three disturbances,
rainfall totals look to remain pretty low at best for the eastern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos (the NBM indicates a 50-80%
chance of these areas receiving less than 0.1 inches, with the GEFS
being the most optimistic ensemble).

Temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will drop into the 50s and 60s
for most (again, with the exception of locations beyond the
mountains). We will need to monitor for high winds in the Guadalupe
and Delaware Mountains Tuesday and Wednesday associated with the
passage of the trough over the region. After Wednesday, the forecast
looks dry. Throughout the period, we will also need to monitor fire
weather concerns for the mountains and areas beyond, as these
locations will remain drier and warmer than the rest of our region.

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

VFR conditions and modest southwesterly winds are expected the
next 24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 155 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Unseasonably warm temperatures (20-25 degrees above normal) continue
across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this afternoon through
Saturday. Critical minRH combined with increasing 20ft westerly
winds and dry fuels likewise continue through Saturday. A Rangeland
Fire Danger Statement remains in effect through this afternoon, and
an additional RFD will likely be needed for Southeast New Mexico and
adjacent parts of West Texas tomorrow as well. Elevated ERCs (50th-
89th percentile) will be realized farther to the south of this area
as well. However, these ERCs will not be coincident with elevated
fire weather conditions, as winds will be weaker in this area.

A cold front Saturday night alleviates concerns as cooler air moves
into the region. By early next week, fire weather conditions
generally diminish as higher minRH values spread across most of the
region, besides in the mountains and locations in the Presidio
Valley area. The front will struggle to reach these locations, and
therefore they will remain warmer and drier. Nevertheless, winds
will be light in this area (except for the Guadalupes and Delawares
on Tuesday and Wednesday), which is expected to help ease fire
weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               56  90  38  56 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 50  86  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   55  90  56  77 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            57  92  51  75 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           51  77  50  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    49  85  36  63 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    49  85  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     53  88  41  61 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   53  88  41  62 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     46  91  43  67 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...10