860
FXUS64 KMAF 191159
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
559 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 540 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

- An arctic airmass remains in place over our area through Tuesday
  with very cold temperatures. Dangerously low wind chills are
  expected, especially during the overnight and morning hours.

- The coldest temperatures are anticipated Monday night and
  Tuesday morning, when breezy northeasterly winds bring wind
  chill values as low as 5 above to 5 below over the plains and
  lower terrain areas and as low as 10 to 20 below over the
  mountains.

- Temperatures warm closer to normal by the end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 451 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

Satellite imagery and current observations depict the cold front
moving through Presidio and Brewster counties in far southwest
Texas. High temperatures today will be 20-25 degrees below normal
for this time of year, thanks to arctic air advecting behind the
front. The Permian Basin and some portions of southeastern New
Mexico are going to experience highs in low to mid 30s, while areas
along and south of the Trans Pecos in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
The NAEFS Mean Temperature and Climatological Percentile from the
Ensemble Situational Awareness Table indicates a 0.5-1 percentile at
the 850mb level across much of the region this afternoon. The value
of this percentile means that 850mb temperatures from the ensemble
model are forecasted to nearly fall outside of today`s climatology.
This also lines up with our lowest recorded high temperature for
Midland-Odessa being 29 degrees set back in 1943. In short, it is
going to be very cold today. Winds are expected to back to the east
and southeast, plus decrease as the surface high pressure continues
build in across Kansas, Oklahoma, and northern Texas.

Tonight, low temperatures are anticipated to generally range from
the mid teens to mid 20s. Wind chill values are expected to reach
the single digits over most of the region Monday morning. This is
due to increasing winds overnight as the area will be stuck between
the aforementioned surface high pressure system, along with a
developing low pressure system in southwestern Mexico creating tight
pressure gradients. A Cold Weather Advisory likely will be needed
and issued during the next forecast package. By Monday, highs will
be a couple degrees higher as the arctic air continues to sit over
the region. Breezy easterly to southeasterly winds will turn
northeasterly by the late afternoon hours. The winds in the
Guadalupe Mountains are expected to shift northeasterly earlier than
most areas, providing high winds to kick up as early as late Monday
afternoon. Therefore, this warranted the issuance of the High Watch
across the Guadalupes.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 451 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

A shortwave trough will dig across the Rocky Mountains and
southern Plains late Monday night into Tuesday morning and will
send a reinforcing cold front southward across our forecast area
during this time. Northeasterly winds will increase to 15 to 25
mph with some gusts over 35 mph over the southeast New Mexico
Plains, Permian Basin, and Trans Pecos areas, while stronger wind
speeds are anticipated across western portions of the forecast
area, particularly the higher terrain areas given the pressure
gradient with the surging front. We have issued a High Wind Watch
for the Guadalupe Mountains from late Monday afternoon through
late Monday night , mainly for stronger wind speeds through gap
areas such as Guadalupe Pass where sustained winds up to at least
35-45 mph and a few gusts around 55 mph will be possible with the
advancing cold front. Very cold surface high pressure over 1040
mb is forecast to build into the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles by
early Tuesday morning. A reinforcing shot of very cold/arctic air
will spill southward into our forecast area during the Monday
night/Tuesday morning time frame, with low temperatures as cold as
the single digits in the mountains and northern portions of the
southeast New Mexico Plains, to the teens across much of the
remainder of our region, except for lower to mid 20s along the
Presidio Valley/Rio Grande and into Terrell county. The blustery
northeasterly winds will result in bitterly cold wind chills
across the majority of our area Monday evening into Tuesday
morning, and we have opted to message an Extreme Cold Watch for
most of our area where wind chills will range from 5 above to 5
below across the plains/lower terrain areas and as low as 10 to 20
below in the higher terrain areas of the Guadalupe, Delaware, and
Davis Mountains. Will let later shifts determine if the Extreme
Cold Watch will also need to encompass the Presidio Valley/Rio
Grande and into Terrell County, but a Cold Weather Advisory will
otherwise certainly become necessary for those far southern
zones Monday night/Tuesday morning.

A region of increased moisture/weak ascent ahead of the approaching
shortwave trough may support the development of light snow across
portions of the Davis Mountains, Trans Pecos, and southern Permian
Basin Monday night into early Tuesday morning, but we currently
anticipate little to no accumulation. We do have mention of a
chance of light snow or snow flurries in the forecast across these
locations. Things will quickly dry out as the shortwave trough
moves east of our region by Tuesday afternoon. Highs on Tuesday
will not get out of the lower to mid 30s for most, perhaps even
struggling to reach freezing in portions of southeast New Mexico
and the Permian Basin, while readings in the mountains likely
remain below freezing.

Dry northwesterly flow aloft returns for Wednesday with warmer
temperatures in the 40s and 50s anticipated across our region.
Another cold front should push through our area by Wednesday
evening and slightly cooler temperatures follow for Thursday.
Ridging aloft currently looks to build overhead by Friday with dry
west-southwest flow aloft on Saturday. A warming trend commences
both Friday and Saturday, with highs by Saturday forecast to trend
back up into the 60s if not readings in the lower to mid 70s
across portions of the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande areas. A dry
forecast continues Wednesday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

MVFR ceilings are anticipated to continue at INK, MAF, FST, and
PEQ for the next couple of hours. Ceilings are expected to lift
to VFR conditions later this morning and continue throughout the
rest of the period. Northerly to northeasterly winds gradually
shift back easterly to southeasterly by the morning to early
afternoon hours. Winds are expected to increase tonight at most
terminals with low to medium (20-50%) chances of occasional gusts
up to 25 kts at INK, MAF, and FST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               33  17  38  16 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 36  19  40  14 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                   40  22  43  23 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Stockton            36  23  44  17 /   0   0   0  20
Guadalupe Pass           33  22  37  10 /  10   0   0  10
Hobbs                    31  17  33  12 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    40  18  49  14 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     35  19  39  16 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   35  20  39  16 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     37  21  41  17 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ this morning
     for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-
     Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
     Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves
     County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Extreme Cold Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning
     for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-
     Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
     Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Upton-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Monday evening through late Monday night
     for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains.

NM...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM MST this morning for Central
     Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

     Extreme Cold Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning
     for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

     High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...11