104
FXUS64 KMAF 101117
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
617 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 607 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

- Very hot temperatures in the upper 90s and lower 100s today with
  a slight (15-30%) chance of thunderstorms from southeastern New
  Mexico to the Davis Mountains.

- A weak frontal system brings cooler, near normal temperatures
  with afternoon and evening thunderstorms chances (15-40%)
  through the middle of the week.

- Temperatures begin to climb back above normal as thunderstorms
  become largely confined to near the Davis and Guadalupe
  Mountains by the latter half of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 125 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

An elongated upper high stretching along the U.S./Mexico border
will hang on for one more day before an upper trough moving into
the norther Great Plains erodes the eastern periphery and pushes
the center back west. Today will be the last day of above normal
temps for a few days as highs reach up into the upper 90s to low
100s.

The trough pushes a weak cold front into the northwestern CWA this
afternoon, and combined with strong daytime heating will cause
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop from
southeastern New Mexico to the Davis Mountains.

Monday upper heights decrease and cooler and more moist gulf air
gets advected into West Texas dropping temperatures back down
closer to normal with highs expected to be in the 90s for most
areas. The moisture also helps increase rain coverage with
everyone getting at least a slight chance for getting some
rainfall.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 125 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Low to moderate (20-50%) rain chances continue into Tuesday which
should be the coolest day of the week. High pressure out west
moves east Wednesday and Thursday causing temps to slowly rise
while decreasing rain chances. The high out west gets replaced by
a trough moving into the West Coast shifting the upper flow
around from the southwest. This flow will bring a warming,
downsloping component to the wind flow but this will be at least
partially offset by lower heights (temps) aloft. Thus the latter
part of next week should be warmer and back above normal but
should hold short of the temperatures we are expecting today.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

VFR conditions and breezy southeasterly to southerly winds are
expected to prevail through the period. Light rain showers are
currently ongoing across portions of southeast New Mexico this
morning which may impact CNM and HOB terminals for brief periods.
Thunderstorm development is expected to initialize over portions
of southeast New Mexico by 19/20Z, though there is uncertainty of
the coverage and positioning of these storms. Therefore, -TSRA
and TS PROB30s were implemented this afternoon and early evening
for HOB and CNM sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              101  73  95  70 /   0  10  30  30
Carlsbad                101  71  95  68 /  30  30  30  30
Dryden                  100  73  98  73 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton           101  72  97  72 /   0   0  20  10
Guadalupe Pass           92  67  87  65 /  30  30  40  30
Hobbs                    99  69  93  65 /  20  30  40  40
Marfa                    93  62  89  62 /  10  10  40  20
Midland Intl Airport    101  74  95  70 /   0  10  30  40
Odessa                  100  73  94  70 /   0  10  30  40
Wink                    102  72  95  70 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...11