Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
350
FGUS63 KMSR 241456
ESGM19
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM DUBUQUE..IOWA TO GREGORY LANDING..MISSOURI
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
855 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2024
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 12/30/2024 - 03/30/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Mississippi River
DLDI4 16.0 17.0 20.5 <5 10 <5 6 <5 <5
DBQI4 17.0 18.0 21.5 5 11 <5 10 <5 <5
BLVI4 17.0 18.0 20.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
FLTI2 16.0 18.0 20.0 <5 11 <5 5 <5 <5
CMMI4 17.0 18.5 20.5 <5 10 <5 5 <5 <5
LECI4 11.0 12.0 13.5 <5 10 <5 5 <5 <5
RCKI2 15.0 16.0 18.0 6 12 <5 10 <5 <5
ILNI2 15.0 16.0 18.0 <5 11 <5 9 <5 <5
MUSI4 16.0 18.0 20.0 6 13 <5 9 <5 <5
NBOI2 15.0 16.5 18.5 9 15 <5 10 <5 5
KHBI2 14.0 15.5 17.0 11 19 <5 12 <5 7
GLDI2 10.0 12.0 14.0 10 20 <5 12 <5 <5
BRLI4 15.0 16.5 18.0 9 15 <5 12 <5 5
EOKI4 16.0 17.5 19.0 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
GGYM7 15.0 18.0 25.0 11 21 <5 10 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 1230 Z DH12 /DC2412241455/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
: Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
: Valid Period: 12/30/2024 - 03/30/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Mississippi River
DLDI4 6.7/ 6.8/ 7.3/ 9.2/ 11.2/ 13.5/ 15.2
DBQI4 9.1/ 9.2/ 9.7/ 11.2/ 13.0/ 15.4/ 17.1
BLVI4 7.5/ 7.7/ 8.2/ 10.0/ 11.9/ 13.8/ 15.3
FLTI2 7.1/ 7.4/ 8.1/ 9.6/ 11.7/ 14.1/ 15.7
CMMI4 9.9/ 10.1/ 10.6/ 11.7/ 13.0/ 14.7/ 16.3
LECI4 5.8/ 5.9/ 6.4/ 7.3/ 8.6/ 9.7/ 10.6
RCKI2 7.2/ 7.6/ 9.0/ 10.6/ 11.7/ 14.2/ 15.3
ILNI2 5.6/ 6.0/ 7.6/ 9.2/ 11.4/ 13.4/ 14.6
MUSI4 7.5/ 7.7/ 9.4/ 11.0/ 12.8/ 15.1/ 16.2
NBOI2 6.6/ 7.2/ 9.1/ 10.9/ 12.7/ 14.7/ 15.6
KHBI2 7.7/ 8.6/ 9.7/ 11.4/ 12.4/ 14.1/ 14.5
GLDI2 3.1/ 3.8/ 4.8/ 7.1/ 8.3/ 10.1/ 10.5
BRLI4 9.2/ 9.9/ 10.6/ 12.4/ 13.3/ 14.8/ 15.3
EOKI4 5.1/ 5.7/ 6.6/ 8.9/ 10.2/ 12.1/ 13.1
GGYM7 6.8/ 7.0/ 8.4/ 11.1/ 13.1/ 15.2/ 16.7
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 1230 Z DH12 /DC2412241455/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH
.B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF
:
: Chance of Falling Below Flows (kcfs) at Specific Locations
: Valid Period: 12/30/2024 - 03/30/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Mississippi River
DLDI4 29.3/ 27.9/ 25.6/ 24.0/ 23.0/ 21.5/ 20.9
DBQI4 29.3/ 27.9/ 25.6/ 24.0/ 23.0/ 21.5/ 20.9
BLVI4 29.7/ 28.3/ 25.9/ 24.5/ 23.4/ 21.8/ 21.2
FLTI2 31.1/ 30.0/ 27.4/ 25.9/ 24.7/ 22.9/ 22.5
CMMI4 31.1/ 30.0/ 27.4/ 25.9/ 24.7/ 22.9/ 22.5
LECI4 32.6/ 31.6/ 28.5/ 27.0/ 25.6/ 23.8/ 23.3
RCKI2 38.1/ 36.8/ 32.4/ 30.5/ 28.6/ 27.4/ 26.1
ILNI2 38.7/ 38.5/ 33.9/ 31.6/ 29.6/ 28.3/ 27.0
MUSI4 38.7/ 38.5/ 33.9/ 31.6/ 29.6/ 28.3/ 27.0
NBOI2 37.8/ 37.7/ 34.0/ 31.6/ 29.7/ 28.3/ 27.0
KHBI2 41.7/ 41.5/ 38.2/ 34.4/ 32.0/ 30.4/ 28.9
GLDI2 41.7/ 41.6/ 38.2/ 34.4/ 32.0/ 30.5/ 28.9
BRLI4 41.8/ 41.7/ 38.3/ 34.5/ 32.1/ 30.7/ 29.1
EOKI4 40.0/ 40.0/ 39.6/ 34.8/ 32.6/ 30.1/ 27.8
GGYM7 41.6/ 41.4/ 41.2/ 36.7/ 34.4/ 32.4/ 29.2
.END
:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.
$$