299
FNUS74 KLZK 011527
FWSLZK

Spot Forecast for Goggans Farm...AGFC
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1027 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on October 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (800) 482-8471 and ask for the fire
weather forecaster if you have any questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Mostly dry conditions are expected for the next several
days...with no precipitation expected in the foreseeable future. A
dry cold front will push southeast through the state this
afternoon and tonight...with cooler and much drier air filtering
into the state. This may cause min RH values to drop to below
critical levels for some areas on Wednesday. However...winds
should be light enough when the drier air arrives.

.REST OF TODAY...

Max temperature.....81 at ignition...Max 87.
Min humidity........66 percent at ignition...Min 49 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....North 10 to 16 mph.
Stability class.....3.
LVORI...............1.
Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Dispersion..........29 increasing to 42 in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
1700 Ft Mix Temp....84.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 6677 ft MSL.
Category Day........4.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 6500 ft AGL.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR PC  PC  PC  PC  MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............81  83  85  86  86  86  85
RH..............66  59  54  49  49  49  51
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..5   5   6   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.7   8   10  11  12  12  12
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.10  13  14  15  16  16  15
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.TONIGHT...

Min temperature.....Min 56.
Max humidity........Max 75 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....Northeast 13 to 14 mph.
Stability class.....6.
LVORI...............3.
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Dispersion..........28 decreasing to 6 in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
1700 Ft Mix Temp....MISSING.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 2488 ft MSL.
Category Day........3.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 2300 ft AGL.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MCR PC  MCR MCR CLR MCR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............83  79  75  73  71  69  67  66  64  62  60  59
RH..............57  63  71  73  75  75  73  69  74  69  72  70
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..7   5   5   3   3   3   3   3   2   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.10  8   7   7   6   6   6   6   5   6   6   6
Transp wind dir.N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.14  13  13  14  14  14  14  14  14  13  13  13
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.WEDNESDAY...

Max temperature.....Max 79.
Min humidity........Min 31 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....Northeast 8 to 13 mph.
Stability class.....3.
LVORI...............3 early in the morning.
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Dispersion..........16 increasing to 24 in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
1700 Ft Mix Temp....75.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 4546 ft MSL.
Category Day........3.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 4400 ft AGL.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............58  57  58  63  66  69  73  76  77  77  78  75
RH..............72  72  68  55  48  44  38  34  33  33  31  36
20 FT wind dir..N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..2   2   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.5   5   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.13  13  12  12  10  10  9   9   9   8   8   8
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

$$
Forecaster...55
Requested by...Clayton Whitaker
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2423356.0/LZK
.DELDT 10/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL clayton.whitaker@agfc.ar.gov