344
FXUS64 KLZK 012326
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
526 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 230 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

+  Winter weather expected starting this morning and lasting
   into tonight across the majority of the forecast area.

+  Freezing rain will predominate across central, north central,
   southern and western Arkansas. Snow and some sleet are
   possible over northwest Arkansas.

+  A large part of the forecast area is under a winter weather
   advisory from 6 AM today until 6 AM Tuesday.

+  Impacts will largely be minor but higher amounts of freezing
   rain remain possible over central sections with higher impacts
   possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Overall the forecast appears to be in good shape with only some
minor tweaks needed. Biggest change this morning was to include
Ouachita and  Calhoun counties in the winter weather advisory.
Satellite imagery this morning shows a definite increase in gulf
moisture but the majority of it is of the mid to high level variety.
Surface observations have already dropped in the upper 20s to mid
30s. Guidance continues to temperatures bottoming out in the lower
20s to lower 30s around sunrise.

Synoptic pattern has not deviated much over the past few models runs
with a sharp upper trough digging through the central Rockies at
this time. As this feature continues to dig, upper flow will turn to
the southwest allowing for deeper moisture to arrive as weak low
pressure develops and traverses the gulf coast. Warm air advection
off the deck and the aforementioned moisture will move over an air
mass that will struggle to get out of the 30s as surface high
pressure to our north keeps surface flow out of the N to NE.

Timing of the precip still looks reasonable, starting over the
southwest early this morning and spreading to the E/NE with time.
Upper trough will pass over the state late today as the surface low
to our south pulls out, taking whatever moisture remains with it.
Precipitation looks to be pretty much done by midnight in our CWA.

Highest QPF remains over the SE and tapers off to the NW where
impacts will be less. Biggest question mark with precipitation type
will be the amount of, or lack of low level moisture. Models
indicate the best moisture doesn`t stick around very long. In
addition, once precipitation does initiate, wet bulbing could also
bring a little more sleet than what is currently being indicated.

On the positive side, QPF is overly low and while the overall
impacts will be minor, there remains areas where icing could be more
of a problem. Surface temperatures do warm above freezing during the
afternoon and road temperatures will likely stay just above freezing
with main travel impacts on elevated roadways.

Sub freezing temperatures are expected Monday night and any water on
area roadways could refreeze. Surface ridge overspreads the region
on Tuesday with temperatures climbing back into the 40s. Southerly
winds return for Wednesday with highs climbing back into the upper
40s to mid 50s.

Temperatures get knocked back down on Thursday and Friday as another
upper trough approaches from the west. Overall it does not appear to
be as cold Thursday night and Friday when compared to today but
there will be at least another chance of winter weather across the
North and Northeast. Temperatures will continue to run well below
normal, even for early December.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 515 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

CIGs will likely stay in the MVFR/IFR category through the rest
of the evening into the overnight hours across the state. Patchy
light -SHRA and -FZRA impacting KPBF and KLLQ will push east of
those terminals around 05z. Hi-res CAMs and area mosaic radar
shows a band of snow currently over parts of eastern Oklahoma that
will move across northern Arkansas later this evening into the
overnight hours. All terminals will see a gradually lifting of
ceilings to MVFR after sunrise on Tuesday, then VFR around the
late Tuesday morning. Winds will remain light through the period
out of the N/NW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     25  42  25  49 /  30   0   0   0
Camden AR         24  44  24  53 /  50   0   0   0
Harrison AR       22  43  26  50 /  20   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    25  45  25  52 /  20   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  26  42  26  51 /  20   0   0   0
Monticello AR     28  42  26  53 /  70   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      24  47  26  54 /  10   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  22  42  25  49 /  30   0   0   0
Newport AR        25  41  25  47 /  30   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     25  41  24  51 /  50   0   0   0
Russellville AR   25  46  26  53 /  10   0   0   0
Searcy AR         24  42  23  49 /  20   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      26  40  26  49 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for ARZ004>008-
014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>046-052>056-062-063-066-067-103-
112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-
238-240-241-313-340-341.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...56
AVIATION...76