794
FXUS64 KLZK 062344
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
544 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 226 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025

A variety of sensible weather elements are expected during this
forecast period.

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate partly cloudy
conditions across the forecast area.  Near normal temperatures were
noted.

High pressure centered over extreme southeast Arkansas will move
east early in this period,  as developing low pressure will move
east across the central Plains. A moderate to strong low level
southwest flow will develop accordingly by early Friday. Well
above normal temperatures are expected on Friday.

The eastward moving low pressure center will promote a cold frontal
passage late Friday and early Saturday. This front, anafront in
nature, will promote shower development for Saturday.  The greatest
coverage of precipitation will be across southwest sections of the
forecast area. Near normal temperatures are expected for Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025

A relatively weak and positively tilted upper level trough is
expected to move east and move over Arkansas on Sunday. This is the
same upper level trough that spread weak large scale forcing for
ascent over Arkansas Saturday and Saturday night, spreading rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms across mainly the central and
southern portions of the state. With the upper trough over Arkansas
on Sunday, rain showers are expected to linger over portions of
central and south Arkansas Sunday morning before large scale forcing
for subsidence takes over on the west side of the now exiting upper
level trough Sunday afternoon. As this trough moves off to the east,
a large upper level ridge is expected to build east over the central
United States and remain in place through Tuesday night.

This will result in decreasing rain chances but continued cool
conditions on Sunday as the upper trough combined with widespread
cloud cover retard daytime heating. Under the influence of the upper
ridge, temperatures are expected to climb 15 to 20 degrees warmer on
Monday, and nudge up a bit warmer again on Tuesday, but only a
couple of degrees warmer than Monday. High temperatures on Monday
and Tuesday are expected to be near perfect with highs in the lower
to mid 70s across the entire state under sunny skies.

Come mid-week, another weak upper level trough is expected to swing
over the south central United States and bring with it another
chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. It`s pretty far out in
the forecast right now, but despite the warm start to the week, it
looks like Gulf moisture will not be able to make it far enough
north to support a severe weather threat with this mid-week system.
Temperatures will remain well above normal despite the increase in
rain chances Wednesday afternoon and evening.

To round out the work week ahead a shortwave ridge will move over
Arkansas on Thursday resulting in another warm and sunny day across
the state. Friday will feature the approach of another storm system,
but this one appears to be much larger and stronger than the
previous two upper level storm systems during this forecast period.
It looks nearly certain to bring another round of showers and
thunderstorms across Arkansas, but severe weather chances are too
early to reliably determine. Something to keep an eye on in later
forecasts for sure.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025

VFR conds are expected overnight with potentially MVFR CIGs over
SWrn terminals shortly after 12z Fri. By afternoon, VFR conds
should return with mainly mid/high clouds noted. Winds will be
Srly at about 10 kts overnight, becoming SWrly and gusty on Fri,
ranging from 15-25 kts. Some wind shear will be possible over the
NW half of the state early Fri morning, but numerical values are
just at mentionable criteria.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     42  69  43  54 /  10  10   0  20
Camden AR         44  72  49  59 /   0  10  10  60
Harrison AR       43  71  38  51 /   0   0   0  20
Hot Springs AR    45  70  45  54 /  10  10  10  70
Little Rock   AR  44  69  46  57 /   0  10   0  50
Monticello AR     45  71  52  62 /   0  10   0  50
Mount Ida AR      45  72  44  55 /  10  10  10  70
Mountain Home AR  43  71  40  53 /   0   0   0  20
Newport AR        42  66  43  52 /   0  10   0  20
Pine Bluff AR     44  70  48  58 /   0  10   0  50
Russellville AR   44  74  42  56 /   0   0   0  50
Searcy AR         41  68  43  55 /  10  10   0  30
Stuttgart AR      44  69  48  55 /  10  10   0  40

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....Cavanaugh
AVIATION...70