968
FXUS64 KLZK 252355 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
655 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Thru the remainder of the day today, expect mostly benign condns to
prevail w/ some isolated showers and a few storms possible under the
influence of diurnal heating. Thru the night tonight, broad sfc high
pressure acrs the Upper Midwest wl sag Swrd into the Ozark Plateau
and lower MS Valley, w/ the leading edge of a backdoor cdfrnt
reaching Nrn Cntrl AR by Sat mrng. Some patchy fog could develop
acrs the Srn and S/Wrn portions of the state late tonight as well.

Covg of precip on Sat wl lkly be bounded by this sfc bndry, mainly
acrs Cntrl to Srn AR, where more unstable and favorable condns for
thunderstorms are expected. Based on recent CAM guidance, a few
stronger storms could be seen across the FA on Sat aftn, w/ clusters
of storms lkly consolidating into a small linear system thru Sat
evng, though a more widespread severe threat is not anticipated for
now.

Sun and thru near mid-week next week, more settled condns look to
prevail as the aforementioned sfc cdfrnt begins to clear the state to
the S/W, and upper lvl ridging amplifies over the Cntrl US.
Alongside drier condns, much warmer temps are expected, as most
areas wl climb to the mid to upper 80s.

By Tues next week, a more active pattern looks to unfold as mean
H500 troughing returns to the Wrn half of the CONUS. S/Wrly flow
aloft is progged acrs the Srn Cntrl US and lower MS Valley, w/
several embedded shortwave trofs expected to pivot around the mean
longwave trof. An attendant threat for some severe weather appears
possible on Tues, primarily acrs the N/Wrn half of the state, where
a sufficient overlap of instability and shear is progged ahead of an
advancing cdfrnt. For now, all severe weather hazards appear
possible, as suggested by the large SPC D5 15 percent risk
area, alongside locally heavy rainfall.

Wed thru Fri, the aforementioned trailing cdfrnt should wash out over
the Ozark Plateau Tues night/early Wed mrng, resulting in another
stalled sfc bndry, that wl serve as the primary region of local
convergence for multiple days of active weather. A few rounds of
daily thunderstorms and locally excessive rainfall appear possible
acrs the N/Wrn half of the state, w/ the last few runs of ensemble
mean guidance suggesting significant probabilities (30-40 percent)
of 3 inches of rainfall or greater, and deterministic guidance
suggesting greater amounts towards 4 to 5 inches. There are still
details to resolve regarding rainfall magnitudes and additional
severe weather chances, but the pattern bears monitoring for more
hazardous and impactful weather, stay tuned for more details!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

VFR condns were noted acrs the FA this evng. Expect most areas to
prevail as VFR thru tonight. Winds should stay light and variable
thru Fri night. Expect incrsg low clouds to move in fm the west
overnight tonight, resulting in expanding covg of MVFR CIGs fm
west to east near 12Z Sat mrng. Some patchy fog may be seen as
well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     61  77  58  75 /   0  10  40  30
Camden AR         63  85  63  86 /   0  20  20  10
Harrison AR       58  73  57  74 /   0  10  50  30
Hot Springs AR    63  83  62  83 /   0  20  40  20
Little Rock   AR  64  82  63  81 /   0  20  40  20
Monticello AR     66  87  67  87 /   0  10  20  20
Mount Ida AR      63  83  62  84 /   0  30  30  10
Mountain Home AR  58  74  56  72 /  10  10  50  40
Newport AR        63  77  59  75 /  10  10  30  30
Pine Bluff AR     64  84  64  84 /   0  10  30  30
Russellville AR   63  82  61  80 /   0  20  40  20
Searcy AR         62  79  59  78 /   0  10  30  30
Stuttgart AR      65  82  64  81 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...72