088
FXUS64 KLZK 012356
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
656 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

Skies were partly cloudy to mostly clear across the state this
afternoon. Temperatures had climbed into the mid 60s to mid 70s
after starting out mainly in the 40s. High clouds were seen building
into the state via visible satellite imagery from the SW ahead of
the next developing storm system to our W. This will our last dry
day in the forecast until at least Sunday into Monday. Unsettled
weather will settle into the region for several days bringing a
multitude of hazardous weather conditions to the Natural State.
This upcoming flood/flash flood situation could be potentially
catastrophic and have further reach regarding impacts and affect
more Arkansans than the severe weather side of the spectrum. Keep
this in mind!

Starting out tonight into early Wednesday morning, upper level
energy is expected to move through background SWrly flow in place
triggering showers and thunderstorms over portions of NW AR and
points N and W of the state. If storms reach severe limits, large
hail and damaging winds should be the primary weather hazards. This
activity should quickly move out of the state Wednesday morning.

On Wednesday, an upper level trough should pivot and shift Ewrd into
the Nrn Plains from the Rockies meanwhile near the surface, a strong
area of low pressure should be located beneath this upper level
feature over the Nrn Plains. Extending to the S and SW of this
surface low will be a pronounced cold front. Ahead of the cold front
and S of the warm front, which stretches into the OH/TN Valley
regions, a large open warm sector will be in place across all of AR
bound by dew points well into the 60s and temperatures climbing into
the mid 70s to mid 80s. Winds will be gusty heading into the
afternoon with sustained speeds of 15-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph
over the Delta Region of AR. Due to these expected high winds, a
Wind Advisory will go into affect across portions of E and NE AR
tomorrow. It will be windy elsewhere, but should remain below wind
advisory criteria.

Environmental conditions across the state will be favorable for all
modes of severe weather including large hail, damaging winds, and
even tornadoes. Sample point sounding across the state depict
forecast SBCAPE on the order of 1500-3000 J/Kg, CIN initially in the
50 to 100 J/Kg range dwindling to less than 25 J/Kg by late
afternoon indicating the cap may give way at some point in the
afternoon. When the cap breaks, showers and thunderstorms would
be developing into an environment characterized by 0-1km and 0-3km
helicity values in the 150-300 m2/s2 to 250-400 m2/s2 range,
respectively. Clockwise curving hodographs with height become
larger looping hodographs by afternoon and evening. While changes
are still possible, the best estimation of timing for severe
weather should be in the afternoon, evening, into early portions
of the overnight period. There could be some lingering morning
convection over portions of SW and W AR which could conditionally
lower the severe weather threat there, however confidence is low
that precip will linger long enough to inhibit sufficient warming.
The most favored location for severe weather include portions of
Cntrl AR into E and NE AR.

Beyond the severe weather risk, we quickly shift gears to the threat
of significant to potentially catastrophic life-threatening flash
flooding.

The pattern will feature another digging trough over the Four
Corners region which will attempt to move Ewrd with time. At the
same time, an expansive ridge will retrograde towards the E coast
from the Atlantic Ocean. The convergence of this upper trough to the
W and upper ridge to the E will amplify SW flow aloft across the
region and this pattern will become fixed through Saturday. The cold
front from Wednesday will become stationary from Wednesday evening
all the way through Saturday serving as the primary focus for heavy
rainfall. By Sunday, the trough pushes off to our E with ridging
building back into the Cntrl Plains.

In the lower portion of the atmosphere winds will be out the S
pumping plenty of moisture-rich air into the region via the Maya
Express from Wednesday through Saturday. Forecast precipitable water
values are expected to be near record maximum territory, ranging
from 1.5 to 2 inches, which will only aid in efficient rainfall
rates over the coming days.

The main issue we will be dealing with is the duration of heavy
rainfall expected. The current forecast still calls for 3-6" of
total rainfall across NW AR and SE AR, and widespread 6-10" of total
rainfall across SW into Cntrl into E and NE AR through Saturday
night. There are some indications that total rainfall amounts of 10-
12+" could be possible along a narrow corridor from SW to NE within
the larger 6-10" footprint.

WPC has a Moderate risk of excessive rainfall from Day 2 through Day
5 across large portions of the state, thats right, 4 days of
Moderate risks of excessive rainfall. WPC also has a High risk of
excessive rainfall for far NE AR as of now on Day 3. From the
aforementioned information discussed above, a Particularly
Dangerous Situation Flood Watch is now in effect for a large part
of AR through Saturday night.

As of now, no river forecast points are currently above flood
stage across the Little Rock CWA but this stat will certainty change
over the coming days. The time is now to prepare for different types
of flooding hazards whether that be move farm equipment to higher
ground, move livestock to higher ground, or move personal property
to higher ground, etc. In addition to this, plan out routes to reach
your destinations should a main thoroughfare become impassable due
to high water or bridges and roadways becoming washed out.

Confidence in a high-impact, catastrophic, and far-reaching flood
event is medium to high given the upper level pattern and stationary
features in place for an extended period of time. Annual return
internal (ARI) for this upcoming rainfall event has a large swath
extending from W-Cntrl, to Cntrl, to E and NE AR of 25 to 50 years
with some locations reaching that 50 to 100 year annual recurrence
interval. ARI in other words represent how many years on average
an event is reached. Needless to say, this could result in a once
in a lifetime observed amount of rainfall for some to many folks.

Stay tuned to your local NWS forecast offices for the latest updates
and don`t be caught off guard!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

VFR conds should give way to MVFR CIGs overnight as low stratus deck
builds in advance of the next storm system. Mentioned some slight
chance PoPs this evening with some passing upper level energy. Winds
will remain elevated during the overnight period, ranging from 10-20
kts out of the S. Next round of SHRA/TSRA are expected midday Wed
through the evening. All modes of severe weather will be possible as
the line of TSRA moves Ewrd. Winds over Cntrl and SE AR will become
breezy, gusting from 25-35 kts in the afternoon, with 15-25 kts
expected elsewhere. Some wind shear was included over Cntrl/Nrn
sites overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     64  80  59  69 /  50  90  90 100
Camden AR         67  84  66  80 /  20  90  90  90
Harrison AR       61  78  53  62 /  50  80  40  90
Hot Springs AR    66  79  62  73 /  50  90  90 100
Little Rock   AR  67  81  64  75 /  40  90 100 100
Monticello AR     70  85  70  85 /  10  70  80  80
Mount Ida AR      65  78  60  72 /  60  90  90 100
Mountain Home AR  62  77  55  65 /  40  90  40  90
Newport AR        63  82  62  70 /  40  90  90 100
Pine Bluff AR     68  84  66  81 /  20  90 100  90
Russellville AR   66  79  59  71 /  60  90  80 100
Searcy AR         64  81  61  74 /  50  90  90 100
Stuttgart AR      69  83  67  78 /  30  90 100 100

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday morning for
ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341.

Wind Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to midnight CDT Wednesday
night for ARZ008-016-017-025-033-034-045>047-056-057-064-065-069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70