690
FXUS64 KLZK 042357
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
557 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 148 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Latest satellite, radar, and surface observational data indicates
patches of light rain and MVFR ceilings, affecting the southern
half of the forecast area. Clear conditions were noted across the
northern third of the forecast area.

A split flow pattern will prevail across the U.S. during this
forecast period. Mid level energy in this flow will continue to
promote the light rainfall now occurring into at least the late
evening hours.

High pressure will build quickly southward through the mid south on
Thursday.  A cold front will move south through the state during
this time, and will lead an air mass that will promote colder than
normal temperatures during the rest of this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 148 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

The period will begin with cold high pressure exiting to the east,
and the Subtropical Jet becoming more dominant. This will happen as
a large storm system/cutoff low approaches the region from the
southwest United States. Temperatures will moderate quickly ahead of
the system, and chances of rain will increase late Saturday into
Sunday.

Areas of heavy rain will be possible from eastern Texas to the
Florida panhandle, but some of this heavier precipitation will
likely build into southern and eastern Arkansas. For now, the
forecast calls for two to three inches of rain across the
southern/eastern counties through Monday morning.

The storm system will exit to the east on Monday, with a cold front
blasting through the area from the northwest. Behind the front,
temperatures will quickly return to seasonal/below seasonal levels
Tuesday/Wednesday.

While the forecast indicates that moisture will get out of here by
the time cold air surges into the state, there is some guidance
showing otherwise. This includes additional energy from the
southwest/a push of moisture to the north instead of remaining along
the Gulf Coast. Will monitor trends closely in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

VFR conds wl prevail over north AR. Meanwhile, widespread
MVFR/IFR conds wl cont elsewhere, with light to moderate rain
gradually decreasing fm the west later this evening. Lingering low
clouds and patchy fog wl clear out late tngt into Thu mrng as
gusty north/ northwest winds usher drier air into the FA behind a
cold front.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...44