886
FXUS64 KLZK 211037 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
537 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

A weak frontal boundary has dropped south into central sections of
the state early this Thu morning...with some isolated/widely
scattered convection still ongoing along/south of this front over
central/SRN sections. North of this boundary...dewpts were slowly
dropping into the upper 60s with the light NRLY wind. Along/ahead of
this front...dewpts were in the low to mid 70s. The weak front will
continue to slowly drop south overnight...with the chances for
convection also slowly dropping south over time.

With SFC high pressure to the north...and with NRLY/NERLY upper flow
over the region...expect temps to remain cooler though the weekend
than was observed this past week. Precip chances will also remain
relatively low...but there may be at least some potential for an
isolated SHRA or TSRA into Fri with some weak upper energy passing
S/SW over some portion of the state. However...organized and
widespread precip is not expected with this setup.

By late this weekend into early next week...flow aloft will
transition back to a more NWRLY direction...and a new cold front
will drop south into the state. This SFC front will then slow or
stall over some portion of the region for the early to middle part
of next week...becoming parallel to the NW flow aloft. Some upper
waves may pass over this front...increasing the potential for some
rain. These increasing rain chances will begin Mon with the front
dropping south...then increase further Tue and Wed with the front
slowing/stalling over some portion of the region.

Temps for next week look to become much cooler and below normal as a
result of this early week cold front. The cooler temps will also be
result of the better chances of more organized and widespread
rainfall next week as well. This cooler pattern looks to continue
into the foreseeable future as the flow aloft looks to continue from
the NW over the region beyond this forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Northern AR terminals could see some FG reduce vsby for a couple
hours this morning. Also, an area of low clouds is moving south
across southeast Missouri which could bring some borderline
VFR/MVFR cigs to KBPK this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions and
NE winds are expected through the period. Some gusts to 15 kts are
possible this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     90  65  89  64 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         92  66  92  65 /  10   0   0   0
Harrison AR       87  63  87  63 /  10   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    93  68  93  67 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  91  68  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     91  69  92  68 /  10   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      92  66  91  66 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  89  64  89  64 /  10   0   0   0
Newport AR        88  66  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     92  66  91  66 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   94  69  94  68 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         90  66  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      91  66  91  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...67