020
FXUS64 KLZK 300823
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
323 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Mostly quiet conditions are ongoing across the Natural State early
this Mon morning. However...some very spotty SHRA were noted across
portions of ERN AR as the upper shortwave energy drops SSW over this
portion of AR from the main upper low to the NE. Kept some low POPs
for some sprinkles or isolated SHRA into the morning hrs as this
upper energy continues to drop SSW...then back to the SE over time.
Some patchy fog was also noted across some areas where cloud cover
was less. This may also continue during the morning hrs across WRN
to NWRN sections where winds where light...and cloud cover less.

Beyond this morning...the upper shortwave will exit to the east by
this afternoon...with AR under a more NW flow aloft. A cold front
will be moving SE towards the state on Tue...eventually moving into
the state Tue night. Until this front...temps will be on the warmer
side...with highs in the mid 70s to upper 80s for highs the next 2
days. Lows will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s tonight...but cooler
for Tue night as drier/cooler air filters in behind the front as it
moves into the state. Tue night temps will range from the upper 40s
to low 50s across the north behind the front...to the mid 50s to low
60s ahead of the front further south. Mainly dry conditions will
continue.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

The local weather pattern will be fairly quiet through the long term
period. To begin, a weak upper ridge should traverse Ewrd across the
nations mid-section. This ridge should finally depart the Ern CONUS
by the weekend. Over the weekend, the pattern should become more
NWrly over the Cntrl third of the CONUS as another ridge builds over
the Four Corners region.

Closer to the surface, high pressure should be located across
MO/IL/IN bringing N/NErly winds to AR on Wednesday. By Thursday,
high pressure will shift to the E and return flow will commence
through the end of the work week. Another cold front will approach
and attempt to move across at least portions of the state over the
weekend, however limited moisture ahead of the front should preclude
PoPs.

The coolest temperatures during the period should be on Wednesday as
high pressure resides closest to AR. Highs should range from the mid
70s to mid 80s on Wednesday. High temperatures will gradually
moderate through Friday with afternoon highs warming a couple
degrees each day. High temperatures over the weekend will either be
slightly cooler over Nrn AR, possibly into Cntrl AR, or near the
same over Srn AR. Lows each morning should be in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     80  63  83  53 /  10   0   0   0
Camden AR         86  64  87  60 /  10   0   0   0
Harrison AR       81  59  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    87  64  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  85  66  87  60 /  10   0   0   0
Monticello AR     85  65  86  61 /  10   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      87  61  89  57 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  80  60  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        80  64  83  53 /  10   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     83  65  86  59 /  20   0   0   0
Russellville AR   86  63  88  56 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         82  64  84  56 /  10   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      82  65  84  57 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....70