347
FXUS64 KLZK 162314
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
614 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Latest data from KLZK radar indicate that the isolated, yet very
well organized storms that affected north central portions of the
forecast area have dissipated or moved out of the forecast area.

Very unstable conditions exist area wide, with MLCape values of >=
3500 j/kg noted. Moderate effective shear, along with the
pronounced instability, are sufficient to support well defined
supercellular convection.

18z KLZK upper air sounding indicates a strong capping inversion
around 850 mb. This feature has strengthened substantially since
12z.

Recent CAM guidance suggests forcing along a weak cold frontal
boundary approaching western parts of the state during the late
afternoon and evening hours will be sufficient to overcome the
convective inhibition. The resulting convective activity would then
spread eastward. Southwesterly surface flow indicates that the
overall tornadic potential may be low with this activity.

On Saturday, moderately unstable conditions will develop during the
afternoon hours. The previously mentioned surface boundary will be
in the vicinity to promote strong convection during the afternoon
and evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Unsettled conditions will prevail until late Tuesday, when a strong
cold front moves southeast through the mid south. Dry and relatively
cooler conditions are expected during the second half of this
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

CAM guidance has had some difficulty in recent runs regarding
strength of convective inhibition across the forecast area. Still
expected some southward increase in convective coverage through
08z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     64  89  65  84 /  30  10  60  60
Camden AR         67  90  68  89 /  70  30  50  20
Harrison AR       58  84  61  81 /   0   0  60  60
Hot Springs AR    64  90  68  87 /  40  20  50  40
Little Rock   AR  67  91  69  87 /  60  10  50  50
Monticello AR     71  92  71  90 /  70  10  40  30
Mount Ida AR      63  90  67  86 /  20  30  50  30
Mountain Home AR  58  84  61  81 /   0   0  60  70
Newport AR        64  89  68  85 /  50   0  60  60
Pine Bluff AR     67  91  70  89 /  70  10  50  30
Russellville AR   62  90  67  85 /  20  10  50  50
Searcy AR         64  90  68  85 /  50  10  60  50
Stuttgart AR      69  90  71  86 /  70  10  50  40

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55