764
FXUS64 KLZK 301518
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1018 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1015 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Dangerous overnight low temperatures were noted in quite a few
areas, with >= 80 observed.

Studies have indicated that high overnight low temperatures can
contribute to a high heat stress the next day, which is already
indicated by WBGT, heat index, and (experimental) heat risk
products.

Excessive heat warning has been expanded significantly for today
and early evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

TUESDAY:

In the upper lvls, the ridge center becomes elongated from over the
Southern Plains region extending eastward over the Mid-South region
and eventual Southeastern region of the CONUS. At the sfc, the CWA
and state of Arkansas will be positioned between two dynamic frontal
systems that will be producing adequate chances for rain and
thunderstorms. One system will be draped along the Gulf Coast region
of the CONUS well south of the CWA with a second system
transitioning from the Northern Plains into the Mid-Western region
of the CONUS.

Expect hot and dry conditions to be experienced across the Natural
State as morning low temperatures will be near to slightly below
normal with afternoon high temperatures peaking slightly above
normal across the state by a few degrees.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY):

In the upper lvls, the center of the elongated ridge begins to slide
southward and position over the Deep South region of the CONUS as a
shortwave will approach the state associated with the northern
stream of activity that will be positioned just over the
Arkansas/Missouri border. At the sfc, a cold front will be
positioned across central Missouri on Wednesday before evolving into
a warm front on Thursday and re-positioning over northern Missouri.
The combination of the overall upper lvl flow patter in conjunction
with the surface features of the frontal boundary across Missouri
and a sfc high pressure center located over the Mid-Atlantic region
of the CONUS will allow for plentiful amounts of moisture via the
Gulf of Mexico to be advected into the state. In turn, this will
lead to elevated dewpoint temperatures that will likely present the
need for aggressive heat headlines on Wednesday and Thursday as heat
index values will exceed 100 across the entire state and 110+ across
much of the state. A second repercussion of this will be the
availability of moisture and the possibility of a few showers and
thunderstorms as temperatures rise throughout the day and air
parcels across the CWA begin to reach their convective temperature
and begin to rise without the need for a lifting mechanism such as a
closely positioned front.

Expect hot conditions to continue to prevail overall as air
temperature with respect to both morning lows and afternoon highs
will be 6 to 10 degrees above normal with heat index values that
will exceed 110 across a large portion of the CWA. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible over this two-day stretch, especially
during the hottest part of the day before falling apart with the
lack of daytime heating, but as mentioned in several discussions;
it`s imperative to be vigilant to any storm that does form, but
canceling any Independence Day plans on Thursday does not look to
be needed. A higher concern over this period will be the dangerous
heat index values.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY:

In the upper lvls, a trof approaches the state associated with the
northern stream of upper lvl flow. At the sfc, a cold front dives
southward into Arkansas on Friday and will become a stationary front
stalled across central Arkansas on Saturday.

Unfortunate news if you plan on extending your Independence Day
celebration into Friday and the weekend as the presence of an
approaching boundary will increase POP chances across the entire
state of Arkansas with likely scattered showers and thunderstorms on
both Friday and Saturday. The positive tradeoff will be temperatures
that will be near or slightly below normal by a few degrees during
the day on Saturday. In the long term forecast period, the greatest
confidence of rain/storms will be on Friday and Saturday as the cold
front moves into Arkansas and stalls out across the I-40 corridor in
Arkansas on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Cloud debris fm overnight convective activity has dissipated
somewhat, leaving behind some low-lvl broken CIGs. Thru the day, a
frnt is expected to move thru the region fm north to south,
ushering in a windshift to Nrly to N/Erly winds at area terminals.
Expect VFR condns to prevail thru the PD, w/ some aftn convection
possible along the advancing frnt, primarily over Wrn to Cntrl
AR. Main window for precip wl lie w/in 20Z to 02Z this evng,
however covg is not expected to be prominent...mainly VCTS.

/72/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     90  66  84  63 /  30  10   0   0
Camden AR         96  73  92  68 /  50  20  10   0
Harrison AR       87  66  85  65 /  40  10   0   0
Hot Springs AR    96  72  90  68 /  60  20   0   0
Little Rock   AR  95  73  89  68 /  50  20   0   0
Monticello AR     95  74  91  68 /  60  20   0   0
Mount Ida AR      93  71  89  67 /  60  20  10   0
Mountain Home AR  86  66  83  63 /  30  10   0   0
Newport AR        90  66  84  64 /  20  10   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     94  73  89  66 /  60  20   0   0
Russellville AR   93  72  88  68 /  60  10   0   0
Searcy AR         92  68  86  63 /  40  10   0   0
Stuttgart AR      93  72  86  66 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
ARZ031>034-039-042>046-054>056-062-063-066>068-122-238.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ047-
057-064-065-069.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ052-053-121-130-
137-138-140-141-230-237-240-241-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...72