393
FXUS64 KLZK 071731
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1231 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

-Above normal temperatures and increased humidity are expected
across much of the state through the weekend. Temperatures will
hovering at or around normal by early next week.

-Frequent chances for rain and thunderstorms with a few strong to
 severe thunderstorms possible between today and Monday as a
 progressive pattern continues. The primary hazards today will be
 damaging winds with some large hail possible. A tornado or two is
 also possible this morning across the northern half of the state.

-Locally heavy rainfall amounts in excess of 3 inches possible
across portions of Arkansas through Monday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

An active period of disturbed weather will continue through most
of the forecast period. Regional satellite this morning shows a
two separate MCSs, with the first located over portions of
central and northeast Oklahoma and the second located over north
central and northwestern Oklahoma and south central KS. The first
MCS will likely move into northwestern Arkansas within the next
one to two hours. Ahead of the MCS, a warm moist unstable
environment exists with the latest short term model guidance
showing 1000-1500J/kg of CAPE and bulk shear of 50-60 kts ahead of
the approaching MCS this morning across the northern half of the
state. The primary hazards with the initial MCS will be damaging
winds with some large hail also possible. The second complex
currently over north central/northwestern OK and south central KS
has exhibited bowing structures on regional radars this morning
and hi-res CAM solutions show this will likely continue as this
MCS will likely enter the state around the 11-13z time frame with
the aforementioned hazards likely with this complex but also a
tornado or two is also possible particularly in areas from Little
Rock northward through mid morning before the MCS complex exits
the state around noon today.

The stationary boundary currently over the northern Arkansas
remain nearly stationary ahead of the approaching shortwave
responsible for the couple of MCSs ongoing over portions of the
southern and central Plains this morning. The front will push
southward on Sunday in response to another shortwave within the
flow on Sunday embedded with the periphery of the digging broad
long wave trough dives south into the northern/central Plains with
the closed low through southern Ontario on Sunday, then over the
Great Lakes on Monday helping drive the cold front into southern
Arkansas by Sunday afternoon. Another shortwave embedded within
the west-northwest flow will generate another MCS over portions of
Oklahoma with the MCS likely to move across state Sunday night
into Monday with the primary hazards being damaging winds and some
large hail.

By Tuesday, the broad upper trough with the closed low over
Ontario will move into the Ohio River valley on Tuesday, then the
northeastern US by Wednesday. The surface boundary over southern
Arkansas will begin to retreat northward Tuesday through Wednesday
as a warm front into central Arkansas ahead of another approaching
shortwave trough with the warm front moving into north central
Arkansas by Friday. Additional chances for isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast through the Friday
period through the entire forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Convectively enhanced boundary across central sections of the
forecast area likely will be a focus for additional thunderstorm
development later today. Forecasts will reflect expected upscale
growth of convection. IFR ceilings across central sections will
clear by 20z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     83  68  89  69 / 100  30   0  30
Camden AR         93  70  90  69 /  40  70  30  50
Harrison AR       81  64  87  65 /  90   0   0  30
Hot Springs AR    91  68  91  68 /  70  60  10  40
Little Rock   AR  86  71  91  71 /  80  50   0  30
Monticello AR     93  72  91  72 /  50  70  40  40
Mount Ida AR      89  68  92  67 /  70  50  10  40
Mountain Home AR  81  64  86  65 / 100  10   0  40
Newport AR        85  69  89  69 /  90  40   0  20
Pine Bluff AR     91  71  90  70 /  60  70  20  30
Russellville AR   86  68  91  69 /  90  20   0  30
Searcy AR         85  69  90  69 /  90  40   0  20
Stuttgart AR      88  72  89  71 /  80  60  10  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...55