687
FXUS64 KLZK 101030
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
430 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 426 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

A powerful winter storm was unfolding across the Natural State on
this Friday morning. Regional WSR-88D radars depicted an expansive
shield of precipitation moving across the region spanning a
multitude of states. Temperatures around the state ranged from the
upper 20s to lower 30s.

Across S-Cntrl AR, a mixture of precip types was noted via a sharp
gradient in correlation coefficient (CC) which has meandered about a
quasi-stationary axis extending from Glenwood to Sheridan to Pine
Bluff to De Witt and points S. S of this line, a dominate precip
type has be hard to discern given the number of transitions back and
forth evident by relayed ground reports and ASOS sites. Due to
mixture of precip types, accumulations have been limited to around
an inch or less of sleet and snow combined thus far. Freezing
rain accretion has ranged from a couple tenths of an inch to near
one quarter of an inch.

Over the Nrn third of AR, precip has been all snow however QPF
amounts have been on the lower side in this region. Lower QPF
amounts have yielded accumulations of a couple to several inches of
snow thus far.

Attention then turns to the Cntrl third of AR, where heavy precip
has overlapped with heavy snow. Across this region, aka the
goldilock zone of ingredients, snow accumulations have been
impressive, ranging from 4 to 8 inches so far. Locally higher
amounts may have been possible.

Through the remainder of today, favorable jet dynamics in the H500
and H850 layer will provide substantial forcing for ascent and thus
sustained efficient snowfall rates through the first half of Friday.
Between current and 9AM, a band of heavy snow, producing 1"-1.5" per
hour, should continue to affect portions of Cntrl AR just north of
the transition zone in precip. It is this area where the highest
snowfall totals are expected to reside. Going forward amounts of 3
to 6 inches of new snowfall is possible over portions of Cntrl AR
extending Nwrd into portions of N-Cntrl and NErn AR. Further S, cold
air advection in the H700-H925 layer should allow for mixed precip
over Srn portions of AR to transition to all snow before precip
comes to an end. This cooling should be the result of low pressure
passing S of AR, aiding in Srly warm lower atmospheric winds to
become a NErly component on the backside of the low. In total, Srn
portions of AR may see up to 1 to 2 inches of snow accumulation
before precip comes to an end. The only location expected to see
less than 1 inch would be over the Srn row of counties of S-Cntrl AR
into SE AR.

Given the remaining amount of wintry precip expected today, left the
winter storm warning intact through 00z, with later updates trimming
Wrn counties from the warning as snowfall winds down from W to E
this afternoon. Temperatures today will warm slightly, with readings
topping out near freezing to the mid 30s. Any thawing today, will
likely result in refreezing and or areas of black ice developing
tonight. This refreeze cycle of roadways will remain for a couple
nights/mornings until all snow is melted from the roadways and
shoulders. Skies should clear out on Saturday, in the wake of this
storm system, with reading climbing into the upper 30s to near 40,
ample melting is anticipated to begin.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 426 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

The extended period will be quiet but cold with largely below
average temperatures. Data continues to show a big ridge of high
pressure building over the Pacific Northwest, with a closed low
diving southward toward New England. Between these features, there
will be a northwest flow right out of Canada. Snow cover to begin
the period will keep daytime temperatures down, and will encourage
cooling at night. Any melting of snow will result in patchy ice
issues on roadways after dark. As far as precipitation, there is
nothing mentioned in the forecast.

Toward the end of the period, it appears the pattern will
temporarily modify. The flow from Canada will cease, and some
ridging will occur from the Plains. Temperatures will not be
so cold and closer to seasonal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025

LIFR/IFR conds are expected through much of the period as low
CIGs/low VIS, and impactful winter weather affects area TAF
sites. SN, potentially heavy at times, is expected overnight
through about 15z at all terminals except KLLQ. AT KLLQ, mainly
FZRA, perhaps periods of RA is expected through much of the
period ending as mixed precip. Significant snowfall totals =>4"
is expected at most terminals through 18z. Winds will be light and
variable through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     33  20  37  24 / 100   0   0   0
Camden AR         36  19  41  23 /  80   0   0   0
Harrison AR       33  18  41  25 /  70   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    36  17  38  24 /  80   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  33  20  37  25 / 100   0   0   0
Monticello AR     35  23  40  25 / 100   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      37  15  41  25 /  60   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  33  20  40  24 /  90   0   0   0
Newport AR        32  20  33  22 / 100   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     34  20  37  24 / 100   0   0   0
Russellville AR   37  18  40  23 /  70   0   0   0
Searcy AR         33  18  35  22 / 100   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      33  21  35  23 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for ARZ004>008-
014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-
121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-
241-313-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...70