594
FXUS64 KLZK 010837
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
337 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Sfc high pressure was recently analyzed over the Great Lakes region,
w/ the greater extent of N/Erly flow positioned over the lower OH
River Valley and portions of Nrn to N/Ern AR. Local sfc obs
indicated sfc dewpoints had dropped nearly 10 degrees in the past
few hours, indicating drier air is on the way, w/ the leading edge
of the of sub-70F isodrosotherm extending fm Marion Co, S/Ewrd
towards Stone and Jackson Co`s, and Ewrd to Memphis.

Thru the day today, expect N/Erly sfc winds to persist, and dry air
advection to cont, w/ sub-70F dewpoints extending over the greater
N/Ern half of the state. Slightly cooler air temps wl also be noted,
w/ aftn readings in the mid to upper 80s for most areas, while Wrn
to S/Wrn and Srn AR wl still see near-normal temps in the low 90s.
The good news is, aftn heat index values should stay subdued and
below headline levels, for at least today. Some higher chc PoPs wl
still be seen acrs Wrn to S/Wrn AR thru this aftn, where synoptic
subsidence via the sfc high pressure becomes weaker, though expect
mainly isolated/diurnal convective activity.

Tues, as Great Lakes sfc high pressure drifts E/wrd, and Cntrl
Plains sfc low pressure begins to deepen, Srly sfc flow is expected
to resume. Temps and humidity/moisture levels wl be incrsg yet
again, lkly necessitating the need for heat headlines again for
portions of the FA on Tues aftn.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

The period will begin with a ridge of high pressure over the
southern United States. Heat will return to Arkansas, with above
average temperatures Wednesday/Thursday, and afternoon heat index
values from 100 to 110 degrees and in some cases a little higher.
Heat headlines will likely be required. There will also be little to
no rain.

And just when you thought this oppressive story was going to
continue, the plot suddenly changes. The remainder of the period
will feature a trough carving itself over the middle of the country,
with ridging remaining over the southwest United States and also the
southeast. A cold front will ride a west/northwest flow aloft into
the region Thursday night/Friday. The front will be accompanied by
scattered showers/thunderstorms, followed by slightly cooler/drier
and more seasonal air.

It appears the front will wash out in or just south of the area this
weekend. Any precipitation will become more spotty.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Mixed batch of VFR/MVFR condns were noted via recent sfc obs and
IR sat imgry around the FA. Expect mixed category condns to cont
thru at least 12Z Mon mrng, before lower cloud cover begins to
improve around the region. Nrly to N/Erly winds wl be noted thru
the day today, w/ lingering mid to high clouds.

/72/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     85  63  92  73 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         93  69  98  75 /  10   0   0   0
Harrison AR       86  65  94  74 /  10   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    92  69  97  75 /  10   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  89  69  95  77 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     92  69  96  77 /  10   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      91  68  95  73 /  10   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  84  64  93  73 /  10   0   0   0
Newport AR        86  63  92  73 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     90  67  95  75 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   89  69  95  76 /  10   0   0   0
Searcy AR         86  64  93  73 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      87  67  92  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...72