660
FXUS64 KLZK 091734
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1234 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

A strong storm system aloft in the southern Plains early this
morning will track along the Gulf Coast in the near term. The system
will bring mainly light rain to central/southern Arkansas today.
Farther north, after a cloudy start this morning, clouds will
decrease this afternoon. Overall, temperatures will be cool and
largely below average.

As the system exits to the south/east tonight, high pressure will
follow through Monday. Much drier air will be in place, with
dewpoints diving into the 20s/30s. The center of the high will be to
the south of the state, and will bring a west to southwest wind.
This will result in more springlike/above average temperatures on
Monday along with plenty of sunshine.

Given the expected dryness, and a lack of rain from this latest
event, parts of the north will have an elevated wildfire danger
Monday afternoon. May need to address this at some point with a
Fire Danger Statement.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Long term PD is set to begin w/ perturbed upper flow acrs the CONUS,
characterized by intermittent ridging/semi-zonal flow acrs the Cntrl
US, a departing upper shortwave acrs the Ern US Coast, and an aprchg
upper shortwave over the Baja of CA.

Seasonably warm temps wl be one of the main talking points thru the
long term PD, w/ area high temps expected to reach 10 to 15 degrees
above normal values thru at least Fri.

Based on multi-sensor rainfall data fm Sat, the central third of the
FA received upwards of three tenths to seven tenths of an inch
(greater amounts locally acrs Wrn AR). This rainfall should help
mitigate a more widespread wild fire threat on Tues acrs at least
Wrn and S/Wrn AR. Conversely, minimal to no rainfall was observed
over the Nrn third of the state. Aftn fcst RH values are expected to
fall to near 20 percent alongside gusty S/Wrly winds, and could
result in a localized wild fire threat acrs Nrn AR Tues aftn.

Rain chances are expected to return to the FA by Wed to late Wed
night as the aforementioned S/Wrn US upper shortwave quickly
maneuvers thru the mean flow. Asctd sfc cyclonic flow acrs the Srn
Plains should yield some low-lvl poleward moisture transport, though
blended guidance remains unoptimistic for more prominent moisture
return, e.g., probable dewpoints in the low to mid 50s. Potential
instability progs do suggest higher CAPE quantities acrs the FA Wed
aftn to night, e.g., NBM median values of 500-800 J/kg SBCAPE, and
ensemble mean values of 800-1000 J/kg MUCAPE. Note these (relatively
high) instability progs for this environment are lkly due in part to
height falls aloft fm the passing upper trof.

Covg of precipitation should incrs over the FA thru the day Wed, w/
isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible. A conditional threat
for some stronger thunderstorms capable of hail wl exist acrs the
area on Wed, though confidence remains low for more widespread
severe weather at the moment due to the meager fcst sfc environment,
and lkly transition towards elevated thunderstorms based on fcst pt
soundings Wed night.

Thru the end of the PD, attention remains focused on a prominent
trof progged to move acrs the Cont Divide and eject over the Cntrl
US thru the Fri-Sat timeframe. NAEFS guidance continues to advertise
a climatological extreme trof and asctd sfc low, w/ sub 1
percentile 500 mb geopotential heights and MSLP values across the
Cntrl to Srn Plains. Given the possible ceiling of dynamics asctd w/
this system, confidence is incrsg on the potential for severe
weather somewhere acrs the Srn Cntrl US later this week. In addition
to strong dynamics/kinematics, progs for thermodynamics have
remained favorable w/ the latest suite of deterministic and
ensemble/probabilistic guidance. Seasonably anomalous fcst temps
currently in excess of 70 to 75 degrees and sufficient sfc moisture
return should facilitate modest buoyancy acrs the Srn Cntrl US.
Latest ensemble mean probs of at least 1000 J/kg MUCAPE indicated
near 50 to 70% thresholds over the Srn half of the FA, w/ higher
confidence probabilistic thresholds for at least 500 J/kg.

As of the 09/00Z suite of deterministic/ensemble GFS/ECMWF guidance,
better consensus was noted on the evolution of the upper trof w/
regard to timing. For now, it appears the ECMWF soln has come
towards the GFS soln (main trof and jet max ejects acrs the Srn
Plains on Fri). A notable difference on the location of the trof is
still evident, w/ the GFS favoring a Nwrd trend/greater negative
tilt, and the ECMWF suggesting a Swrd placement and lesser tilt. For
now, the variance in characteristics and approximate trof location
still raises uncertainties on more specific and local details,
however, the main takeaway is that confidence is incrsg on the
potential for a severe weather threat acrs the Srn Cntrl US later
this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Light rainfall associated with deformation zone will move
southeast of the forecast area by 03z. VFR conditions will prevail
through the valid TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     60  38  71  46 /  20   0   0   0
Camden AR         49  36  69  41 /  80  50   0   0
Harrison AR       60  38  71  48 /  10   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    53  36  68  43 /  60  10   0   0
Little Rock   AR  53  38  69  45 /  50  10   0   0
Monticello AR     52  41  68  45 /  80  70   0   0
Mount Ida AR      54  36  71  43 /  70   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  61  37  72  44 /  10   0   0   0
Newport AR        59  38  68  44 /  20   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     52  38  68  44 /  80  50   0   0
Russellville AR   59  36  71  42 /  30   0   0   0
Searcy AR         57  37  70  42 /  30   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      53  38  67  44 /  60  30   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55